My Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs prediction looks at the battle of the AFC’s No. 1 contenders, playing for the right to play for the Super Bowl. Cincinnati is trying to do the unthinkable: Beat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs four consecutive times. Only team to do it three times? The Bengals.
My Behavior Bets sports betting model has identified value with these Bengals vs. Chiefs odds. The spread presents an intriguing opportunity to cash a win, as the books think this game is essentially a toss-up.
Bengals vs. Chiefs Odds | AFC Championship
- Spread
Chiefs PICK - Moneyline
Chiefs -110 - Over/Under
UNDER 46
*Bengals vs. Chiefs Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook
The Behavior Bets sports betting model went 11-5 during the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, going up +161.5u and sporting a +269.15% ROI. It is 30-10-1 in the NFL playoffs so far.
For the season, the model is 183-88-7** on bets against the spread, the moneyline, and props.
Let’s see if we can keep it going, starting with this Cincinnati vs. Kansas City prediction. Make sure you also check out my full NFL playoff bracket prediction. I have made it through the first two rounds unscathed.
**Stats on the Behavior Bets model can be tracked at Pikkit, the best bet-tracking app on the market.
Bengals vs. Chiefs Prediction
Let’s kill the suspense now. Mahomes is going to be playing football in the AFC Championship Game. The only question for this Bengals vs. Chiefs prediction will be how limited he is due to the high ankle sprain he suffered against Jacksonville. But make no mistake, that young man is going to be playing football.
And the Chiefs need him to, in order to keep up their AFC best scoring behavior rate (SBR). Their SBR is second in the playoffs only to Brock Purdy and the 49ers. At 0.934 points scored per minute of possession time, Kansas City is basically scoring one full point every 1:12 they possess the ball.
MORE: Early NFL Conference Championship Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
That’s a 15-second head start over their counterpart offense on the other sideline, who score a full point every 1:27 they have the ball.
In a game projected to come down to the final play, those seconds may prove crucial. Charged with slowing that pace down is the Bengals’ defense, who have been forceful in recent weeks. Now, that said, Cincinnati has played some of the league’s worst offenses.
Bengals’ Defense Will Be Tested
The Bengals’ last four opponents prior to the Bills were the Ravens (twice), Patriots, Buccaneers, and the Browns. Combined, those four offenses average one full point about every two minutes. That is half the pace of their opponent on Championship Sunday.
Ironically, the last offense Cincinnati faced before those four teams was Kansas City, who outpaced the Bengals’ offense but lost time of possession due to Cincinnati’s defense. That will be the recipe for success in this one.
The Chiefs had a crucial fumble in that game, and the Bengals controlled the ball for the next five minutes, about the same amount of time they lost the time of possession battle by. The Bengals scored a touchdown on that drive.
That extra possession likely was the difference. If the Chiefs avoid turnovers, they’ll win. My Bengals vs. Chiefs prediction has them scoring 24 points in this one.
Joe Cool Needs To Stay Hot
As great as Joe Burrow has been this year, especially late this season, Cincinnati’s offense is still only scoring at a pedestrian rate of 0.772 points per minute of possession time, or about one full point every 1:27 of possession time. That is the worst remaining SBR in the playoffs and about 15 seconds off the pace set by both the Chiefs and Eagles.
Burrow and the Bengals will likely not be able to match the pace of the Chiefs, according to this Cincinnati vs. Kansas City prediction, so they need to ensure they don’t give the Chiefs extra opportunities with turnovers.
Burrow hasn’t thrown an interception in his last three games. The last time he did, it allowed lesser teams — the Patriots and Buccaneers — to nearly pull off upsets.
If Burrow goes interception free on Sunday, not only does Cincinnati likely win, but it would also be only the second time in his career he’s gone that long without throwing one and the first time in over a year.
Prior to the Buffalo game, Cincinnati had had at least one fumble in four straight games. Now is not the time for them to begin a new streak. The Bengals must keep Mahomes off the field with long methodical drives. They had zero turnovers when they played earlier this year, and that needs to repeat.
Chiefs Must Force Turnovers
The Bengals may have the slowest-paced scoring offense remaining in the playoffs, but the Chiefs have the worst scoring behavior prevention rate (SBPR) of the remaining four teams. This is a game where Kansas City will need to steal Mahomes additional opportunities.
The Chiefs need to play good complementary football to win this. When you have a fast-paced offense, you must play the law of large numbers and keep feeding them opportunities. The Chiefs allowed the Bengals to have five scoring drives — all lasting four minutes or longer, three over five minutes.
MORE: 49ers vs. Eagles Prediction, Odds, and Picks for Conference Championship
What’s worse? On Cincinnati’s final drive to end the game, Kansas City allowed the Bengals to have 10 plays and travel only 39 yards in over three minutes. They must be better this week, and there are signs they’re trending that way.
The Chiefs have been getting 5% better in SBPR week over week and are on pace this week to only allow one full point every 1:36 of possession time. They will need to hit that projection and force a turnover to give the offense the opportunities it needs to put points up.
In this Bengals vs. Chiefs prediction, they get it done and only surrender 21 points.
Bengals vs. Chiefs Prediction
Chiefs 24, Bengals 21