The first slate of Week 1 Sunday games are underway, but we still have four more games to come in the late-afternoon window starting at either 4:05 p.m. or 4:25 p.m. That gives you another set of opportunities to win money betting on NFL games in Week 1. Let’s take a look at the latest odds and picks for the Week 1 late-afternoon slate.
Latest NFL Late-Afternoon Week 1 Odds and Game Previews
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are as of Sept. 8. The picks in this article were made throughout the week, so some may have been based on old lines and/or odds. If you’re looking for advice on whether a bet should still be made based on current odds, you can message the relevant analyst on X: @BrianBlewisPFN, @KyleSoppePFN, @DavidBearmanPFN, and @JasonKatz13.
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-6)
- Moneyline: Broncos +210, Seahawks -258
- Total: 42
Blewis: Denver Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix had a strong preseason, but this environment on Sunday will be a much greater challenge than going against backups in exhibition games.
The Seattle Seahawks obviously have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, and their improved defense under new head coach Mike Macdonald should have its way with Nix making his first career road start.
Seattle’s offense, meanwhile, should be able to put up enough points against the Broncos’ 31st-ranked defense to help them cover a large number.
Seahawks QB Geno Smith is coming off a disappointing season after he broke out in 2022. Smith, however, is poised for a bounce back in 2024 with a healthier and improved offensive line, as well as 2023 first-round pick WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s potential emergence.
I think the Seahawks can win this one comfortably.
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Broncos 10
Pick: Seahawks -6
Soppe: On many sites, same game parlays push you toward overs. It’s a logical move by sportsbooks as it increases the odds of you running into poor injury luck and punting off an otherwise good ticket because your hand was forced.
For that reason, I’m very selective with my SGP exposure, and my No. 1 target on Sunday is the Broncos/Seahawks game, and it’s not close.
From a structure standpoint, we get an awfully low total for a game featuring two offensive minds I’m comfortable trusting (Sean Payton and Ryan Grubb) and two defenses I’m actively targeting.
Both of these defenses were among the four most victimized by runs of 15+ yards from opposing running backs. And if you give these coaches stable production on the ground, they’re going to put their signal-caller in a great spot to make plays.
Don’t trust Nix and/or Smith over 60 minutes? Neither do I, but that’s just fine. Both are capable of making big plays (Nix’s athleticism and Smith in Grubb’s vertical system with a talented receiver room) and big mistakes. Those mistakes, though, simply flip the field in a hurry and stand to increase the possession count.
Even if you think these are below-average offensive units on the whole, I have an out for you.
Average starting field position this preseason off of kickoffs: 28.7
Average over the past 5 regular seasons: 25.5
How impactful is 3 yards?
Might we be too low on the players on bad teams?#FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/orYDUgcAg9
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) September 3, 2024
The bad offenses stand to gain the most from these kickoff rules, and an increase in starting field position is good for every part of this bet. I’m riding the RBs (You can bet both separately to clear 100 total yards. If one hits, you lock in a return of almost a full unit with the potential for much more).
Pick: Broncos-Seahawks Over 41.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Raiders +124, Chargers -148
- Total: 40
Blewis: After hiring Jim Harbaugh this offseason, the Los Angeles Chargers appear to have shifted their identity toward being a smash-mouth, run-first team under their new head coach.
The Chargers parted pays with their top two wide receivers from a year ago, and rather than using a top-five pick on either Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze to replace them, they instead drafted OT Joe Alt.
With the addition of Alt, the Chargers beefed up their offensive line, making them a top-10 group. That will help them lean more heavily on the ground game after having the 29th-ranked rushing offense by EPA last season.
A run-first offense means the Chargers should play at a relatively slow pace offensively. Combine that with them facing a Gardner Minshew II-led Las Vegas Raiders offense, I find myself liking the under for the lowest total of the week.
Prediction: Chargers 17, Raiders 13
Pick: Under 40
Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)
- Moneyline: Commanders +160, Buccaneers -192
- Total: 42.5
Blewis: I’m not buying this Tampa Bay Buccaneers team after their surprise playoff berth and Wild Card round victory last year.
In this matchup, in particular, I’m anticipating the Buccaneers’ defense struggling against Washington Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels. This is a unit that ranked just 24th in pass defense efficiency last season by EPA and 29th on all pass plays with a scramble, according to TruMedia.
Going into 2024, the Buccaneers have the 22nd-ranked defense after parting ways with three starters from last season.
The Commanders’ defense is even worse, but Daniels, without any regular-season tape, will be harder to game plan for than Baker Mayfield.
Prediction: Commanders 28, Buccaneers 26
Pick:Commanders +3.5
Katz: Zach Ertz is just shy of his 34th birthday. His yards per reception has declined each of the past three seasons, bottoming out at 6.9 last year, and averaging a paltry 1.1 yards after the catch per target.
Ertz now joins the Commanders, where he will likely be the fourth- or fifth-best option in the passing game. He’s also playing with a rookie mobile quarterback in Daniels.
Of Ertz’s 25 receptions last season, a total of three went for 14+ yards. He’s nothing more than a check-down guy who is no threat after the catch at this stage in his career.
Pick: Zach Ertz longest reception under 13.5 yards (-115 at DraftKings) 1u
Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Cowboys +110, Browns -130
- Total: 41
Last season, the Cleveland Browns’ defense had the best season by EPA by any unit since the Los Angeles Rams in 2020. Their defense was particularly dominant at home last season, allowing less than 14 points per game. As a result, unders in Browns home games in 2023 went 3-6, hitting at a 66.7% clip.
While the Dallas Cowboys had a very explosive offense last season, they averaged 102.4 fewer yards and 14.05 fewer points per game on the road.
Although this should still be a productive unit this season, the Cowboys’ offense is worse on paper than a year ago with the losses of OT Tyron Smith and RB Tony Pollard.
I would wait and see if the total gets up to 41.5, but I like the under the best in this one.
Prediction: Cowboys 16, Browns 13
Pick: Under 41