The Las Vegas Raiders playoff scenarios are essentially now sitting at the Last Chance Saloon, knowing that nothing but perfection will do from here on out. Their blowout win last week kept them alive entering Week 16, but the three-straight losses before that really put them in a deep hole.
Las Vegas Raiders Playoff Chances | Week 16 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Sunday, Dec. 24 at 8:10 a.m. before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After the Week 16 slate, the Raiders remain the No. 11 seed in the AFC.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Browns (10-5) defeated Texans (8-7)
Falcons (7-8) defeated Colts (8-7)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Buccaneers (8-7) defeated Jaguars (8-7)
Dolphins (11-4) defeated Cowboys (10-5)
Sunday Night Football Update
Patriots (4-11) defeated Broncos (7-8)
Christmas Day Update
Raiders (7-8) defeated Chiefs (9-6)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Raiders entering Week 16. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Las Vegas Raiders’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios Entering Week 16?
The Raiders head into Week 16 with their playoff chances hanging by a thread. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives them a 1% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.1% chance of winning the division. But where there is hope, there is opportunity, and the Raiders took the first step last week.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way: If the Raiders lose this week, they are done in terms of any postseason hopes. On top of that, there are three scenarios entering Sunday where a tie would also see them eliminated. Of course, given we have not had a tie this season, we take those with a slight pinch of salt.
The only path to the playoffs for the Raiders is to win and hope for a lot of help. They could still technically win the division, but they would need the Chiefs to go 0-3 for it to happen. Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? No.
In that scenario, the Raiders would take the division based on a superior division record to the Chiefs while also sweeping the Broncos out of the way in Week 18. If that were to happen, it would be one of the most incredible division victories in recent memory.
In terms of the Wild Card picture, things get very complicated because of the mass of playoff tiebreakers that could come into play.
The Raiders should be hoping for teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, and Miami Dolphins to win out and knock back other Wild Card chasing teams in the process.
MORE: NFL Week 16 Playoff Bracket
The Raiders can get to nine wins, but as things stand, six teams in the race for the final two playoff spots could get to either 10 or 11 wins. People will likely drop games, but it becomes all about who they end up in a tiebreaker scenario with and how they fare.
In terms of head-to-heads, the Raiders have a win over the Broncos, and that is really it. Meanwhile, they have losses to the Buffalo Bills (9-6) and Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7.
Get into a two-team tiebreaker with either of those, and that is going to hurt. Las Vegas does still play the Indianapolis Colts in Week 17 in a game that could have huge ramifications across the AFC.
Finishing 3-0 would also take the Raiders to 7-5 within the conference. While it is not the strongest record, it would give them a fighting chance in multi-team tiebreakers, with most other AFC Wild Card contending teams having already lost four or five games.
At this stage, the permutations for the Raiders are wide. If they win this week, then the picture clarifies a little, but each of the next two weeks, they will be crossing their fingers and hoping they do not get eliminated from contention by other results.
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