The Las Vegas Raiders likely saw any faint hope they had of making the playoffs in 2023 slide from their grasp as Greg Joseph’s field goal sailed through the upright last week. By losing last week, the Raiders slipped to 5-8 and two games back of the AFC playoff picture with four games to play. At this stage of the season, every game makes a big difference, and the Raiders are a prime example of that this season.
Las Vegas Raiders Playoff Chances – Week 15 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Thursday, Dec. 14 at 5:45 p.m. ET before Week 15 games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Sunday Night Football in Week 15, the Raiders are the No. 12 seed in the AFC.
Thursday Games
Raiders (6-8) defeated Chargers (5-9)
Saturday Games
Bengals (8-6) defeated Vikings (7-7)
Colts (8-6) defeated Steelers (7-7)
Lions (10-4) defeated Broncos (7-7)
1 p.m. Games Update
Dolphins (10-4) defeated Jets (5-9)
Chiefs (9-5) defeated Patriots (3-11)
Texans (8-6) defeated Titans (5-9)
Browns (9-5) defeated Bears (5-9)
4 p.m. Games Update
Bills (8-6) defeated Cowboys (10-4)
Sunday Night Football Update
Ravens (11-3) defeated Jaguars (8-6)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Raiders entering Thursday of Week 15. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Were the Raiders’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios Entering Week 15?
There is a chance that the Raiders could be eliminated from playoff contention in Week 15, but it is very slim. Las Vegas’ chances are hanging by the barest thread as things stand.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the Raiders have just a 0.3% chance of making the playoff in 2023. They also still have a 0.1% chance of winning the division according to the FPI simulations but could be eliminated from the AFC West race this week.
Let’s start with the most obvious part for the Raiders; if they lose they are all but officially eliminated from playoff contention this season. Las Vegas would be three games back in the loss column entering Sunday, and in all likelihood, three full games behind at least one or two teams with three left to play.
There is a scenario where if the Raiders lose, the Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Buffalo Bills, and Houston Texans all lose, and one of the Indianapolis Colts or Pittsburgh Steelers lose, the Raiders remain just two games back from the seventh seed with three to play. Even then, that would be hard to overturn and require a lot to go their way in the next three weeks.
Now for the more optimistic outlook. If the Raiders win against the Chargers in Week 15, they will be just one game behind the seventh seed in the win column entering the weekend.
In that scenario, the worst it can get for the Raiders is being two games out of the playoffs with two games to play. Still tough to overcome, but they give themselves a chance to stay in it.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
If things break the Raiders’ way, they could even head into Week 15 one game back on the seventh seed and right in the thick of the playoff race. They would still need an almost perfect finish to the season, but with three other teams in the thick of the playoff race to come in the final three weeks, it isn’t impossible.
The Raiders would realistically need to go 4-0 down the stretch to make the playoffs. Going 3-1 and finishing 8-9 might be enough, but they would need a lot to break their way. The other element is that when it comes to NFL playoff tiebreakers, the Raiders 3-5 conference record entering this week is a sticking point.
However, finishing 4-0 or 3-1 and getting that to 7-5 or 6-6 could be enough with other teams struggling on that front as well. The head-to-head and common game permutations are tough to work out with four weeks still to go, but if the Raiders manage to win three or four of their remaining games, their division and conference records will almost look after themselves.
The first key is going to be securing at least the second spot in the AFC West away from the Broncos. If they can’t do that, then they will always be struggling to clinch a playoff spot.
MORE: PFN’s Week 15 NFL Power Rankings
Denver is currently two games ahead of the Raiders, but Las Vegas won the first meeting of the two back in Week 1. Therefore, a victory over Denver in Week 18 would ensure that if their records are tied, the Raiders will take second in the AFC West.
In theory the Raiders could still win the AFC West, but it would need a monumental collapse from the Chiefs over the next few weeks. Kansas City is three games ahead of the Raiders and has a 3-1 divisional record. The Raiders would need the Chiefs to win no more than one game, including losing to the Raiders in Week 16 and the Chargers in Week 18.
That would give the Chiefs a 9-8 record and a 3-3 divisional record. If the Raiders then go 4-0, they would be at 9-8 with a 4-2 divisional record to have an advantage in the division. Then if the Broncos can only go 2-2 or worse, the Raiders would have the chance to take the division.
It would all come down to who the Broncos win and lose against, but it could come down to results against common opponents or conference records for the division. Those scenarios are still a long way away, but first and foremost, the Raiders need to beat the Chargers on Thursday Night Football to make any of it possible.
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