The Las Vegas Raiders finished the 2023 season strong behind interim head coach Antonio Pierce. That gave many in Raider Nation confidence that 2024 would result in a return to the playoffs and perhaps the franchise’s first playoff win since 2002.
But that vision has not materialized, and the Raiders are dangerously close to falling out of the mix entirely, especially after losing to the Dolphins in Week 11. Using Pro Football Network’s playoff predictor, let’s take a look at the latest odds for the Raiders to reach the playoffs.
Can the Raiders Make the Playoffs?
Heading into Week 13, the Las Vegas Raiders are 2-9 and now have a <0.1% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a 0.0% chance for the 1 seed, a 0.0% chance for the second seed, a 0.0% chance for the third seed, a 0.0% chance for the fourth seed, a <0.1% chance for the fifth seed, a <0.1% chance for the sixth seed, and a <0.1% chance for the seventh seed.
Who Will Win the AFC West?
Here’s what the AFC West race looks like after all the action in Week 12:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have a 93.5% chance to win the AFC West.
- The Denver Broncos have a 2.4% chance to win the AFC West.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have a 4.1% chance to win the AFC West.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have a <0.1% chance to win the AFC West.
Current AFC West Standings
- Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)
- Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
- Denver Broncos (7-5)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-9)
AFC Playoff Race | Week 17
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
4. Houston Texans (9-7)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)
7. Denver Broncos (9-6)
In The Hunt
8. Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
9. Miami Dolphins (7-8)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
11. New York Jets (4-11)
12. Cleveland Browns (3-12)
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-12)
15. Las Vegas Raiders (3-12)
16. New England Patriots (3-12)
Raiders’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 13: at Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 14: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 15: vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Week 16: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 17: at New Orleans Saints
- Week 18: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
What PFN Predicted for the Broncos vs. Raiders Matchup
This is a divisional showdown between two teams heading in entirely different directions. The Raiders have lost six straight and have no chance at making the playoffs. The Broncos are 6-5 and in the thick of the playoff race.
Bo Nix has really hit his stride recently. The rookie quarterback is making a run at a Rookie of the Year award that seemed destined to go to Jayden Daniels. Over the past month, Nix ranks seventh in EPA per dropback, ahead of guys like Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, and Joe Burrow. He should have no trouble throwing all over a Raiders defense that ranks sixth-worst in defensive EPA per dropback.
As for where the Broncos are in that same metric, they rank second, sporting one of the best pass defenses in the league. Gardner Minshew is likely in for a rough outing. It wouldn’t be a shock if the Raiders once again turned to Desmond Ridder, despite knowing full well that as poor as Minshew may be playing, his worst is miles better than Ridder’s best.
The Raiders may try and keep the ball on the ground to hide their quarterback, but that won’t work either. Even at full strength, the Raiders’ running backs are not talented enough to break a Broncos run defense that ranks second in rush defense success rate. If they have to go into this game down both Alexander Mattison and Zamir White, they are in a world of trouble if Ameer Abdullah has to start.
This is the NFL, though. In a divisional road game, anything is possible. However, looking at the matchup metrics, this projects to be a game where the Raiders have a very hard time doing anything offensively.
The Broncos are currently 5.5-point favorites and the total is a mere 41 points.
PFN Prediction: Broncos 23, Raiders 13