The Las Vegas Raiders‘ fantasy outlook tries to sort through the noise from the explosive Week 15, while the fantasy football preview of the Kansas City Chiefs discusses the return of running back Isiah Pacheco.
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
- Spread: Chiefs -10
- Total: 41.5
- Raiders implied points: 15.8
- Kansas City Chiefs implied points: 25.8
Quarterbacks
Aidan O’Connell: Box-score watchers will look back at Week 15 in an effort to see who is worthy of a roster spot and/or streaming. Those people will be drawn to O’Connell after his four-touchdown performance (34 attempts) on Thursday night against the Chargers.
Take a deep breath. He had four touchdown passes on his first 210 attempts this season and hasn’t flashed a fantasy-friendly profile.
With just seven carries for 11 yards this season, versatility isn’t an option, and I’m happy to bet on the limitations of this offense as a whole as opposed to the single-spike performance.
O’Connell doesn’t deserve a spot on fantasy rosters.
Patrick Mahomes: It was another week with limited help from his supporting cast, but Mahomes did throw for 305 yards last week in New England, his first game reaching that threshold since lighting the Chargers on fire for 424 yards in the Week 7 win.
Can we count on the Chiefs winning this game? Over their past six wins, Mahomes has posted:
- 74.6% completion rate
- 299.8 passing yards per game
- 2.2 touchdown passes
I think we could see that level of production this week, and that would land him in the top five at the position, which is where I have him ranked. He has had a 290-yard, two-touchdown game against the Raiders in every year of his starting career, a threshold he hit in their first meeting this season, and has a great shot at doing again with his starting RB expected back.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
Early in the season, Mahomes’ rushing production helped stabilize his fantasy floor, but that seems to be a thing of the past (under 10 rushing yards in three of his past four games). In a perfect world, we see that tick back up with the Chiefs playing for seeding.
Mahomes is deserving of your fantasy trust.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs: A quad injury sidelined Jacobs for Vegas’ record-setting win, his first missed action since Week 3, 2021. Does he push through to face a Chiefs team that he produced 125 yards and a touchdown against in Week 12?
Only time will tell, but if the team does elect to play him, I’d be comfortable targeting his 20.8 touches per game as an RB2.
Zamir White: He was the preferred option in this backfield with Jacobs out, as he earned the start and out-snapped Ameer Abdullah 45-17.
The flow of Week 15’s win obviously played in White’s favor, but he did his part to take advantage (20 touches for 85 yards and a touchdown). It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to forecast a less favorable script this week, though if Jacobs remains sidelined, White did establish himself as the next best option.
If he is again positioned to start, he’ll rank just behind the likes of Najee Harris (at IND) and D’Onta Foreman (vs. ARI) — other lead backs with offensive question marks around them.
Isiah Pacheco: The shoulder injury kept Pacheco sidelined last week, and his status is one you need to keep an eye on (all signs up to this point are pointing in the right direction). He caught all five of his targets and ran for a pair of touchdowns in the first meeting with the Raiders — success I think he could replicate if deemed fully healthy.
MORE: Will Isiah Pacheco Play in Week 16?
In that game, none of his carries gained more than eight yards, and yet, he was still able to hand a big number on them. Neither Clyde Edwards-Helaire nor Jerick McKinnon has done enough over the past two weeks to take significant work off the plate of Pacheco upon his return — if he’s active for the Chiefs, he’s active for you.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: In two games with an expanded role, CEH has averaged under 3.2 yards per carry (2.4 YPC if you remove a single outlier run, per the Week 16 Cheat Sheet). He’s made the most of eight targets in those two games (93 receiving yards with a touchdown), but that’s not his path to getting on the field when Pacheco is back in the fold.
In the win over the Patriots, Edwards-Helaire held a 40-22 snap edge over Jerick McKinnon and even ran four more routes. The team has wanted him to provide balance, but he has been unable to do so.
This matchup would land him in the Flex conversation should he be in position to start again, but should Pacheco return, CEH isn’t in the zip code of starting fantasy lineups.
Jerick McKinnon: It’s hard not to feel nostalgic; McKinnon scored eight times in six games to end last regular season and has four in his past four games at the moment. Everyone concerns themselves with the “De-Hember” stuff for Derrick Henry, but I’m one game away from having the “Winnin’ Time? Call McKinnon” T-shirts printed.
That said, I’m not counting on it. His next game with more than seven touches this season will be his first, and he only has one 20-yard catch this season.
I like the fact that he has a 78% catch rate and that he was used in a creative manner inside the 10-yard line, but the role is too thin if Pacheco returns.
Should Pacheco sit, he’s a desperation Flex play at best. If you’re going in this direction, you’re betting on the Chiefs’ offense figuring things out more than you are betting specifically on McKinnon — he’s shown us very little to buy into this season.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams: We still are nowhere near peak Adams from his days in Green Bay or even last season, but with 10+ targets in four of his past five games, Vegas’ WR1 is performing like a WR1 in fantasy at the perfect time.
It should be noted, however, that the lone exception over that stretch was the first meeting with these Chiefs.
- Week 10 vs. New York Jets: 13 targets (52% target share)
- Week 11 at Miami Dolphins: 13 (34.2%)
- Week 12 vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 7 (21.9%)
- Week 14 vs. Minnesota Vikings: 10 (34.5%)
- Week 15 vs. Los Angeles Chargers: 12 (35.3%)
Should that concern you? I think so, yeah. The Chiefs have seen three alpha receivers other than Adams since the beginning of November (Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, and Stefon Diggs), and despite them earning a combined 27.8% target share, they managed just 13 grabs for 94 yards.
If the scoring equity is inherently limited due to this offense (yes, I realize talking down a team that just scored 63 points seems counterintuitive, but this is the same framework that hung a big goose egg in Week 14) and the yardage upside is capped due to how the Chiefs defend, how confident can you be in a big day?
I’m not suggesting Adams gives you coal on Christmas, but I’d be surprised if he gave you anything close to the 20.1 half-PPR points that he offered up last week.
Jakobi Meyers: He pulled a rabbit out of his hat last week, scoring on one of his four targets and throwing a touchdown pass, but the concerns remain. After seeing 10+ targets in four of six games to open the season, Meyers hasn’t cleared seven in a game since.
He has only one catch gaining more than 25 yards this season (it did come against these Chiefs at least), making him a tough sell when it comes to quality or quantity in the target department. With under 40 air yards in four of his past six games, you’re relying on a touchdown for a WR2 in an offense with a low implied total.
Meyers’ season stat line makes him look like a chocolate chip cookie on Santa’s plate that you’re ready to test for quality control. This week, I fear he’ll prove to be an oatmeal raisin: A disappointment for what you built up in your head.
I love Meyers and will be playing him in spots where I don’t have other options because of how I built my team, but he’s far from a lineup lock.
Tre Tucker: The rookie out of Cincinnati turned four targets into three catches, 59 yards, and two scores in the 42-point win over the Chargers last Thursday night. If you’re sorting your waiver wire by Week 15 fantasy point total, Tucker will pop up on your radar — don’t sweat it.
We’re talking about a 5’9” that is, at best, the third option in an O’Connell-led offense. A receiver that totaled 1,426 yards and eight TDs in his collegiate career. This is not the time to get cute; you can feel fine leaving Tucker on your waiver wire.
Rashee Rice: Rice’s talent was obvious back in November, and the confidence this team has shown in him of late has made for a perfect storm. The rookie has caught at least seven passes in four straight games, scoring in three of them and boasting an 81% catch rate for the season.
It’s a badge of honor when you are the featured target of an Andy Reid back-of-napkin red-zone play, and Rice checked that box last week as he “caught” a shovel pass in traffic from McKinnon and finished it off with a score.
MORE: Rashee Rice Climbing Dynasty Rookie WR Rankings
If you were to extend Rice’s production over the past month for an entire season, we are talking about 136 catches for 1,420 yards and 13 TDs. How good is that? That stat line is worth 11.7 more fantasy points than Davante Adams’ swan song in Green Bay.
Lock in Rice and enjoy the immense profit you’re getting based on your investment — acquiring his services for next season will be much more expensive and is something I’ll dive into for my 2024 Fantasy Football Mock Draft piece that will publish once all fantasy leagues conclude.
Tight Ends
Michael Mayer: The touchdown and 80% catch rate from last week look promising, but so does just about everything from the 63-21 dismantling of the Chargers. Mayer hasn’t reached 50 yards since the middle of October and has just one game with more than five targets earned.
The future is bright for this Golden Domer, but the future isn’t right now when it comes to fantasy stardom. You can do better at the TE position, even if you’re relying on streaming in anything but the deepest of leagues.
Travis Kelce: The season-ending stats deserve to be brought back up. I posted them a few weeks ago in this space more in jest, but maybe there’s more to it than I was giving them credit for.
- 2021: Under 35 yards in four of his final five regular season games
- 2022: Six straight games without a TD to end his regular season
- 2023: Four straight games without a TD, 5.2 catches/game since Nov. 1
Kelce did see multiple end-zone targets last week in New England — if he catches one of them, we have far fewer people on the internet looking for Taylor Swift-based links to the tip in production from this Chiefs offense.
You’re not getting cute and doing anything as a result of these struggles. The growth of Rice should result in more defensive attention being paid his way, something that should open up Kelce to bounce back.
I hope.
Should You Start Jakobi Meyers or Curtis Samuel?
With just 24 targets earned over his past five games, Meyers is walking a thin line when it comes to sustainability. This volume paid off last week with a diving TD catch, but the usage metrics are more concerning than his Week 15 scores were encouraging.
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Curtis Samuel isn’t my favorite play of the week, but he plays for a pass-centric offense that has fed him 26 targets over his past three games. I think Meyers is a better football player, and that gives him some upside for those chasing a big point total.
Yet, in terms of projecting mean outcomes, Samuel holds the advantage this week.
Should You Start Rashee Rice or DK Metcalf?
I love Rice as much as anyone and the fact that he’s making this a conversation tells you just how far we’ve come. If DK Metcalf was in a below-average matchup, I’d have Mahomes’ WR1 ranked ahead of him, but that’s not the case this week.
Metcalf gets the benefit of facing a pass-funnel Tennessee Titans defense and has a 30+ yard catch in three straight games — not to mention three 50-yard grabs since the beginning of November.
I’m making every excuse I can to plug in both of these star receivers, but Metcalf holds the slight edge, as long as QB Geno Smith is under center.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!