As Lamar Jackson faces off against Mike Tomlin’s Steelers in Week 11, one NFL analyst dropped a bold prediction. Spoiler alert: he doesn’t see Jackson coming out on top. Jackson’s been on fire, but Tomlin’s defense has a talent for grounding high-flying QBs.
The secret? Dismantling big plays and putting the QB in tough spots. With two key reasons behind this prediction, Sunday’s showdown just became much more interesting.
Can Lamar Jackson Overcome Tomlin’s Dominant Defense?
Jackson vs. the Steelers defense — a matchup that feels like déjà vu for the Ravens QB. Despite his electrifying talents, Jackson’s a mere 1-3 against the Steelers — and NFL analyst Mike Florio thinks this trend isn’t about to change anytime soon. Why? Well, Florio lays it out in two key reasons that scream trouble for the Ravens’ QB.
First, the Steelers have cracked the Jackson code. They know how to bottle up his explosive plays and keep him from breaking free. Jackson’s been a nightmare for most teams, but Pittsburgh’s defense—led by the wrecking crew of T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward—has mastered the art of keeping the 27-year-old locked in the pocket.
They’ve been shutting down dynamic players for years, including limiting Derrick Henry (75 yards or less in three matchups). And now, Jackson’s next.
Second, Tomlin’s defensive scheme is pure kryptonite for Jackson’s style. While most defenses struggle to corral the three-time Pro Bowl QB, the Steelers consistently stymie him with physicality and relentless pressure.
Pittsburgh’s defense plays smart football, taking away his ability to extend plays. With Nick Herbig leading the charge, Jackson better watch out — he’s got a fierce pass rush on his tail.
At 7-3 and 7-2, this Week 11 showdown is a playoff preview, and the Steelers are out to shut down one of the NFL’s most unpredictable QBs.
So, while Jackson’s been on fire, Tomlin’s Steelers know how to burn him out. Jackson’s got to dig deep if he wants to change his 1-3 record against the black and gold. But given Pittsburgh’s defense? That seems pretty unlikely.
Do PFN+ Metrics Agree With Florio?
PFN’s defense rankings combine statistics such as yards per play, points per drive, sack percentage, turnover percentage, success rate against the run and pass, third-down conversion rate, red-zone efficiency, pressure percentage when not blitzing, and various expected points added (EPA) measures against both the run and pass. These are then weighted accordingly to produce our rankings for each season.
The Steelers are ranked 7th in the PFN Defense+ Analytics through Week 10. PFN Analyst Ben Rolfe writes, “The Steelers’ defense put in one of its worst performances in Week 10, ranking 23rd, its second-lowest ranking in a week this season. In many ways, that is not a shock, given that the Washington offense is one of the best in the league. But it is a concern when they host the league-leading offense, the Baltimore Ravens, in Week 11.
The Steelers are inside the top 10 against both the run and pass, while they rank third in points per drive, fourth in red-zone efficiency, and fifth in turnover rate. They will need all of those varied skills when they face the Ravens, who can attack teams both through the air and on the ground with equal proficiency.”
As for the Ravens’ offense, the PFN Offense+ Analytics ranks the Ravens first with an A+ grade. PFN Analyst Kyle Soppe writes, “The 7-3 Ravens are led by the MVP front-runner in Lamar Jackson and have looked much better after losses to open the season against the Chiefs and Raiders.
“Baltimore leads the league in EPA per play and red-zone efficiency — not a surprise when you consider that they also have the leader in the house for Offensive Player of the Year honors.
Diontae Johnson has yet to work his way into the regular mix of this offense (one catch in two games following the trade from the Panthers). It stands to reason that the veteran receiver could take this team to another level with time, something that is hard to imagine given the numbers they’ve produced through 10 weeks.”
Stephen A. Smith Calls Out Jackson’s Struggles Against Steelers and Chiefs
Jackson may be one of the most electrifying dual-threat QBs in NFL history, but his record against top rivals is far from flawless. As Cam Newton defended the Louisville Cardinals’ standout, calling him the best QB on the gridiron, Stephen A. Smith wasn’t shy about throwing a reality check.
On First Take, Smith pointed out Jackson’s disappointing 1-3 record against the Steelers and a 1-5 mark against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Despite Jackson’s stellar overall 65-18 record (78% win rate), Smith sees two major weaknesses: the Steelers and Kansas City.
Stephen A. Smith continues bashing Lamar Jackson as Cam Newton comes to his defensepic.twitter.com/pDBXOGv8rG
— Kevin Oestreicher (@koestreicher34) November 15, 2024
Newton countered, pointing to the QB’s game-changing ability, alluding, “As long as Lamar Jackson is playing, he is the most important person on the team.”
This Week 11 showdown with the Steelers is pretty crucial for Jackson’s legacy.