Lamar Jackson’s fantasy football numbers aren’t jumping off the screen, but his Baltimore Ravens have won seven of 10 games to open the season, and he has a few opportunities left this season to cement himself as an MVP front-runner. Should you bet it now and get ahead of the price that could shorten sooner than later? Let’s check in on Jackson’s NFL MVP betting odds.
Current NFL MVP Odds
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- Jalen Hurts/Patrick Mahomes (+300)
- Lamar Jackson (+375)
- Tua Tagovailoa (+600)
- Joe Burrow (+1000)
- Christian McCaffrey (+1800)
Is Lamar Jackson a Good NFL MVP Bet?
Back in August, Jackson MVP tickets were selling at +1500, and despite having only thrown 10 touchdown passes in 10 games, the market is clearly impressed with his trajectory in a loaded AFC.
Already in his bag, Jackson has a 25-point win over the Browns and a 32-point win over the Lions, two games in which he put up video game numbers. In total …
- Passing: 78.3% complete, 11.8 yards per pass, five TDs, and zero INTs
- Rushing: 18 carries for 63 yards and three TDs
His ability to produce elite numbers in big spots is what MVP honors are based on, and he’s going to have a chance to separate himself from the pack thanks to the scheduling.
- 2022 MVP Patrick Mahomes: Final month — 72.3% complete (won 10 of last 11 games)
- 2021 MVP Aaron Rodgers: Final seven games — 20 TD passes and zero INTs
- 2020 MVP Aaron Rodgers: Final six games – 19 TD passes and one INT (75.9% complete)
Not only does Jackson get the Bengals in an island game tonight that we’re all going to be watching, but he also gets a pair of Super Bowl contenders at the end of December (Week 16 at SF and Week 17 vs. MIA). Highlight wins in those big spots could give Jackson the late steam he needs to win this narrative-based award.
The voters like to reward growth. Jackson’s athleticism is nothing new, and he might set a career high in rushing scores this season. But him being on pace to set new personal bests in yards per pass and completion percentage is next level.
Now let’s poke some holes in his primary competition. I’m of the belief that thanks to how the schedule plays out, Jackson holds his MVP destiny in his hands, but that doesn’t mean the field can’t land a hand.
- Jalen Hurts: Do they need games down the stretch?
- Patrick Mahomes: Voter fatigue, pacing for lowest pass TD total since 2019.
- Tua Tagovailoa: Tyreek Hill’s impact and a potential late loss to Jackson.
- Joe Burrow: Could be 0-2 vs. Jackson after tonight.
- Christian McCaffrey: The TD streak is over, and he doesn’t play QB.
- C.J. Stroud: Four losses in the first month probably cost him.
Jackson closed his 2019 MVP season in overwhelming fashion (11 straight wins, 24 TD passes in his final seven games), and his team has put him in position to put another trophy on his mantle if he can close this regular season in style against quality opponents.
The AFC North being as competitive as it is helps Jackson’s case. The optics of him leading an offense that lost its starting running back early and counts on a rookie as his WR1 to the top-two seed in the ultra-competitive AFC are tough to ignore.
MORE: NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds
The QB who wins on Monday night in Kansas City will be the favorite, but if he can win tonight, Jackson will likely surpass the loser of that game on the odds board. That means that if you want to invest on Jackson, do it before tonight.
He’s one win away from losing another 50 cents of value in the awards market, and those two marquee matchups at the end of December will give Jackson every opportunity to impress the voters at the perfect time!
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