Although the Baltimore Ravens are overwhelmingly likely to place the franchise tag on Lamar Jackson, that doesn’t mean the former MVP can’t change teams this offseason. The Ravens could trade Jackson even if they apply the exclusive franchise tender, and the price tag would be extremely steep. Which NFL teams are set up to pursue Jackson, either as a free agent or on the trade market?
Lamar Jackson Free Agency Predictions
Baltimore hasn’t shown its hand on Jackson — while reports have suggested a trade is a possibility, the club’s decision-makers have been adamant that they want Jackson as their long-term quarterback.
“One hundred percent, 200 percent. There’s no question about it,” Ravens head coach John Harbaugh said of Jackson in January. “Lamar Jackson is our quarterback. He’s been our quarterback. Everything that we’ve done in terms of building our offense and building our team, how we think in terms of putting people around him, is based on this incredible young man, his talent, his ability, and his competitiveness.”
Jackson is targeting an extension that exceeds Deshaun Watson’s fully guaranteed, five-year, $230 million deal with the Browns. ESPN reported in September that Jackson had rejected a six-year contract from the Ravens that included $133 million in guarantees.
If Baltimore uses the non-exclusive tag, rival teams can negotiate with Jackson and submit contract offers. The Ravens can match those proposals; if they decline, they’d received two first-round picks from the team that signed Jackson.
The exclusive franchise tag is more expensive but would also give the Ravens more security. Other clubs wouldn’t be allowed to speak with Jackson, meaning his only avenue out of Baltimore would be via a trade.
Atlanta Falcons Need a Franchise Quarterback
Through the first two seasons of the Terry Fontenot/Arthur Smith regime, the Falcons have posted back-to-back seven-win campaigns while cycling through Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, and Desmond Ridder under center. Smith said this week that while he’s “excited” about Ridder, Atlanta’s 2022 third-round pick, his club isn’t “naming any starters right now.”
The Falcons hold the eighth overall selection in the 2023 draft. While one of this year’s top quarterbacks could conceivably fall to them, there’s also a decent chance Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, and Anthony Richardson will already be off the board.
Instead of trading picks to move up in the draft, Atlanta could send that capital to Baltimore in exchange for Lamar. Any trade for Jackson would likely involve at least three first-round selections. While that would be expensive, any future picks might come in the latter part of the first round, provided Jackson can help the Falcons to the playoffs.
Baltimore crafted their offense around Jackson’s strengths, and Atlanta’s scheme could be similarly tailored to their new quarterback. Like the Ravens, the Falcons are a run-based team that deploys heavy personnel on a regular basis, while Drake London and Kyle Pitts would give Jackson better offensive weaponry than he ever had in Baltimore.
Jackson Would Make the New York Jets a Super Bowl Contender
The Jets haven’t made any secrets about their offseason plans: They’re targeting a veteran quarterback.
After using Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White for multiple starts each in 2022, New York is turning the page. They’ve been heavily linked to Aaron Rodgers, and they’ve already met with free agent Derek Carr and plan to do so again at the Combine.
While Carr wouldn’t require any draft capital to acquire, New York would have to give up picks to trade for Rodgers. We don’t know precisely what the Packers would want in return for Rodgers, or if the Jets are willing to meet Green Bay’s asking price. But if the price for the 39-year-old Rodgers is a first-round pick and more, three first-rounders for Jackson — who is 13 years younger than Rodgers — begins to make sense.
Of course, there are potential roadblocks to a Lamar-to-NY trade. While the Falcons would be ready to drop Jackson into their offense, the Jets might not be set up to change the structure of their scheme to fit Jackson. This offseason, Gang Green has hired offensive coaches with ties to Rodgers (Nathaniel Hackett) and Carr (Todd Downing), but they don’t have anyone who’s worked with a mobile quarterback like Jackson.
Additionally, the Ravens may not want to trade Jackson to a conference rival. The Packers are reportedly unwilling to trade Rodgers within the NFC, and while we haven’t heard the same reporting coming out of Baltimore, the Ravens might prefer not to compete with Jackson inside the AFC for the next decade.
Las Vegas Raiders Searching for QB Answers
The Raiders need a new quarterback after releasing Carr earlier this offseason. A reunion between head coach Josh McDaniels and Tom Brady appeared like a possibility at one point, but Brady’s retirement means Las Vegas has to go in another direction.
McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler were willing to make a splash move when they took over the Raiders last year, sending first- and second-round picks to the Packers in exchange for Davante Adams. Could they make another headline addition this offseason?
In Adams, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, and Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas would present an intriguing set of playmakers for Jackson. The Raiders’ offensive line improved as the season went on, and while the group still has weak links, Jackson’s mobility could help overcome those issues.
Still, Ziegler said earlier this month that Las Vegas is focused on doing things “the right way,” which might signal that the Raiders plan to select a franchise quarterback with the No. 7 pick.
“We’re going to have to be focused on investing in the draft,” Ziegler told The Athletic in February. “We’re going to be focused on getting young players and building that homegrown talent.”
The Raiders may have to trade up to ensure they land one of the draft’s top four signal-callers, but they may prefer that option to dealing away even more selection to acquire Jackson and having to sign him to a market-setting extension.
Lamar Jackson Market Value, Career Stats, and More
A non-exclusive franchise tag for Jackson will cost the Ravens $32.416 million, while an exclusive tender would be worth more than $45 million. Baltimore could do this same dance with Lamar in 2024, but the price tag will only go up. A second tag for Jackson would cost either $41 million or $54 million, depending on which tender the Ravens use this offseason.
Jackson’s contract demands will increase, too — provided he stays healthy and plays well. Lamar has missed five games in each of the last two seasons, but those injury issues aren’t likely to dissuade teams from signing him if he ever reaches the open market.
Baltimore can hang onto Jackson for at least two more seasons, but they’ll never have as much trade leverage as they hold right now. If the Ravens aren’t willing to work out an extension with Jackson now, what has to happen for them to change their minds next season?
If Jackson were an unrestricted free agent with no strings attached, he could likely secure a fully guaranteed deal on the open market. We’ve never seen a young quarterback with Lamar’s hardware reach free agency, and the cost would likely be exorbitant.
Jackson acts as his own agent, and his stance on a long-term deal doesn’t figure to change anytime soon. If this situation is headed for a stalemate, the Ravens might be wise to at least consider the possibility of trading Lamar this offseason.
Lamar Jackson Career Stats
- Games Played: 70
- Games Started: 61
- Passing Attempts: 1,655
- Passing Completions: 1,055
- Passing Yards: 12,209
- Passing Touchdowns: 101
- Interceptions: 38
- Rushing Attempts: 727
- Rushing Yards: 4,437
- Rushing Touchdowns: 24