Lamar Jackson has never averaged below 20 fantasy points per game since taking over as the starter. Should fantasy football managers be willing to spend a premium pick on the Baltimore Ravens QB? What does Jackson’s 2024 projection look like?
Lamar Jackson’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 22.4
- Passing Yards: 3,945
- Passing TDs: 25.5
- Rushing Yards: 1,074
- Rushing TDs: 4.4
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Jackson This Year?
It doesn’t feel like Jackson is coming off an all-that-impressive season. Yet, he was the overall QB3, averaging 21.1 fantasy points per game (ppg).
The reason is probably because fantasy managers still view Jackson from the lens of his record-breaking 28.2 ppg 2019 season, something he’s never going to repeat. That’s unfair to Jackson. This is a guy who has never averaged fewer than 20 ppg in a season.
In actuality, Jackson’s 2023 season was quite good. He remained healthy all year for the first time since 2020. He set a career-high with a 67.2% completion percentage, as well as his 8.0 yards per attempt. This helped allow him to lead all NFL quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback.
The reason Jackson’s fantasy numbers weren’t otherworldly is just touchdown variance. The Ravens scored 53 offensive touchdowns. However, Jackson only accounted for 29 of them (24 through the air, five on the ground). Out of their 26 rushing touchdowns, 21 were not scored by Jackson.
The Ravens do not want Jackson taking those hits near the goal line. That plays a factor in reducing his touchdown upside. Nevertheless, Jackson either should have run or thrown for more scores than he did.
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While the arrival of Derrick Henry is not going to help Jackson score more short touchdowns, the Ravens should remain one of the most prolific offenses in football. My projections have them scoring 52 offensive touchdowns this season, and I have Jackson accounting for 31 of them, a slight increase from last season.
If anything, that projection is a modest one. We know what Jackson is capable of at his peak. We saw it in 2019 when he threw for 36 and ran for seven more. Jackson is plenty capable of reaching 23-24 ppg.
With all that said, I anticipate I won’t be drafting much Jackson this season. It has nothing to do with his talent or ability to produce. Rather, it has to do with the nature of the quarterback position.
We only need one quarterback. Although Jackson was the QB3 last year and is the QB3 in average draft position (ADP), he came out as the QB4 in my projections, which is also where I have him ranked.
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I do have Jackson in a tier by himself. He is clearly a better option than the guys below him. However, the difference between him and the guys above him is not nothing. Specifically, I have Patrick Mahomes ahead of Jackson. And interestingly enough, so do the PFN consensus projections.
Given that Mahomes’ ADP has fallen behind Jackson’s, and I’m projecting a huge bounce-back year for Mahomes, if I’m going to take an early-round QB — and it’s not Josh Allen — it’s unlikely I will find myself in a situation where Mahomes is gone and Jackson is available. Therefore, I will either pass on QB entirely, wait until Jackson is gone, or straight up take Mahomes first.
From a pure projections standpoint, though, Jackson certainly looks good. I have him throwing for 3,706 yards and 26 touchdowns to go along with 980 yards on the ground and five more scores. That puts him at 21.66 ppg.
I would not fault anyone for placing him at QB3 or even QB2. We’ve seen him do it before, and this is the best set of offensive weapons he’s ever played with.
Jackson undoubtedly possesses overall QB1 upside. If you want to take him in the third or fourth round ahead of Mahomes, don’t let me get in your way.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Insight on Lamar Jackson
Jackson’s upside as the QB1 overall is still very present heading into the upcoming NFL season. He had eight games where he scored more than 25+ fantasy points, which included three performances with 35+ points.
He can still be an explosive fantasy force when his deep ball accuracy is dialed in, and defenses have no solution for Jackson’s elite speed when he decides to tuck the ball away and take off running.
Yet, injury concerns still exist, and the Ravens’ pass-catchers, outside of Andrews and Flowers, are good but not elite.
Jackson’s current ADP of No. 41 overall as the QB4 off the board in the fourth round makes him an appropriately-priced elite fantasy option at QB who has league-winning upside.
Jackson is certainly worth the pick at his current ADP, but he does carry some volatility and durability risk at this premium price.