The Baltimore Ravens‘ decision to hire Todd Monken as the team’s new offensive coordinator helped unlock Lamar Jackson’s true potential as a passing threat in 2023, which helped him win his second league MVP award in addition to another excellent fantasy football season.
Entering his second season in this offensive scheme, could Jackson be an even better fantasy producer in 2024?
Should You Select Lamar Jackson at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 41st Overall (QB4)
- Career-High Passing Numbers: In 2023, Jackson set career highs in passing yards (3,678), completions (307), and attempts (457), showcasing his growth as a passer under Todd Monken’s offensive scheme.
- Red-Zone Potential: The Ravens ranked second in red-zone trips last season, which suggests that Jackson’s 24 passing touchdowns could increase if the offense continues to improve in 2024.
- Consistent Rushing Production: Despite the increased passing volume, Jackson maintained his elite rushing output with 821 yards and five touchdowns on the ground, solidifying his status as a dual-threat QB.
- Durability Improvement: After missing significant time due to injury in 2021 and 2022, Jackson stayed healthy for all 16 games in 2023, which was a positive sign for his long-term fantasy value.
- Room for Improvement: The Ravens still ranked last in the NFL in passing attempts per game (29.1) and were 21st in passing yards per game (211.2). Jackson’s passing yardage could increase if he improves his deep ball accuracy in 2024.
- Impact of Derrick Henry: The addition of RB Derrick Henry could slightly reduce Jackson’s rushing touchdowns, but Jackson still managed five rushing scores in 2023 despite sharing goal-line duties with Gus Edwards.
- ADP Analysis: Jackson is currently being drafted as the QB4 at No. 41 overall. His upside as the QB1 overall is clear, but he does come with some injury risk and volatility, making him a high-risk, high-reward pick in the fourth round.
- Final Verdict: Jackson is a strong option at his current ADP, offering league-winning upside with the potential for explosive fantasy performances. However, his injury history and the Ravens’ relatively low passing volume are factors to consider when drafting him.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Lamar Jackson
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
41) Amari Cooper, WR | Cleveland Browns
42) Deebo Samuel Sr., WR | San Francisco 49ers
43) DJ Moore, WR | Chicago Bears
44) DeVonta Smith, WR | Philadelphia Eagles
45) Cooper Kupp, WR | Los Angeles Rams
46) Lamar Jackson, QB | Baltimore Ravens
47) David Montgomery, RB | Detroit Lions
48) Aaron Jones, RB | Minnesota Vikings
49) Zay Flowers, WR | Baltimore Ravens
50) Tee Higgins, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
51) D’Andre Swift, RB | Chicago Bears
Lamar Jackson’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Jackson’s production profile last year quickly reminded the fantasy football community how much of a cheat code the Ravens’ signal-caller can be for your fantasy team with a QB4 finish in just 16 games.
Jackson’s 3,678 passing yards and 307 completions on 457 attempts were all career highs by a wide margin, which signals the Ravens’ willingness to open up the playbook significantly in Monken’s first year as OC in Baltimore.
The best plays from Lamar Jackson's second MVP season! 🎯💨 pic.twitter.com/A2x4yItUpq
— NFL (@NFL) March 18, 2024
His 24 passing TDs were the third-highest mark of his career, but the Ravens’ offense producing the second-most trips to the red zone last year — trailing only the Dallas Cowboys — suggests those touchdown totals could see a bump next season if the offense continues to improve.
The encouraging thing for fantasy managers about this bump in passing production is Jackson’s elite rushing contributions remained about the same after he added an additional 821 yards and five scores on the ground.
Another positive thing about Jackson’s exceptional 2023 season was his ability to stay on the field. After missing 10 games due to injury over the previous two seasons, Jackson stayed healthy the entire year for fantasy managers.
The returning core of Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, and Rashod Bateman should help the Ravens execute the offensive scheme at a similar, if not higher, level in 2024.
Yet, for all of the improvement we saw from this passing attack last year, the Ravens still weren’t an elite passing game in the context of either volume or yardage output. The Ravens ranked tied for dead last in the NFL with the Tennessee Titans with 29.1 passing attempts per game and 21st in the league with 211.2 passing yards per game.
Jackson failed to top 200 yards passing in six of his 16 games in 2023, which isn’t exactly a fantasy death sentence because of the offense’s production and his elite rushing ceiling. However, we are still a far cry from Jackson leading the league in passing yards or touchdowns.
The verticality of the Ravens’ passing attack should still help raise Jackson’s aerial production ceiling heading into 2024. He finished tied for third in the NFL with five passing attempts that traveled 50+ yards.
If Jackson’s deep ball accuracy can improve a touch next season, his numbers could still rank among the elite despite the lack of overall volume.
Ultimately, the Ravens’ offensive engine is fueled by Jackson’s dynamic skill set, which helped Baltimore lead the league in rushing last season with 156 yards per game. The addition of RB Derrick Henry reinforces that this unit wants to run the ball heading into 2024.
Could Henry eat into Jackson’s rushing production a bit?
Sure, Henry is still a great goal-line option and has scored 10+ rushing touchdowns for six straight seasons. But Jackson still managed to produce all five of his rushing touchdowns last year on carries from inside the 10-yard line, even with Gus Edwards around vulturing away short-yardage looks.
Jackson is still firmly in the QB1 overall conversation entering the 2024 season
Is Jackson a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Jackson’s upside as the QB1 overall is still very present heading into the upcoming NFL season. He had eight games where he scored more than 25+ fantasy points, which included three performances with 35+ points.
He can still be an explosive fantasy force when his deep ball accuracy is dialed in, and defenses have no solution for Jackson’s elite speed when he decides to tuck the ball away and take off running.
Yet, injury concerns still exist, and the Ravens’ pass-catchers, outside of Andrews and Flowers, are good but not elite.
Jackson’s current ADP of No. 41 overall as the QB4 off the board in the fourth round makes him an appropriately-priced elite fantasy option at QB who has league-winning upside.
Jackson is certainly worth the pick at his current ADP, but he does carry some volatility and durability risk at this premium price.
