Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has been a QB1 in fantasy football for his entire career as a starter. Still chasing the highs of his MVP 2019 season, is this the year we see another transcendent performance from the best rushing QB since Michael Vick? Is Jackson a value in Best Ball drafts?
Lamar Jackson’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
The perception surrounding Lamar Jackson is quite interesting. First impressions can shape the outlook of a player for many years. Jackson’s first season as a starter was the one in which he averaged 28.2 fantasy points per game and won NFL MVP.
Unsurprisingly, Jackson hasn’t come close to repeating those numbers. But that doesn’t make him a bad fantasy asset.
Jackson has never averaged below 20 fantasy points per game in his career. The problem for his fantasy value is that ever since 2020, he’s been drafted at a price higher than he’s finished — at least until last season.
Last year, Jackson finished as the overall QB3. Based on that fact alone, he was a good value. However, his 21.1 fantasy points per game were the exact same as his QB7 finish two years prior. It was just a down year for quarterbacks. Additionally, Jackson’s path to his final numbers wasn’t exactly linear.
For half of the 2023 season, Jackson was a disappointment. He scored below 20 fantasy points in eight games. He had a lengthy stretch from Weeks 5-12 where he scored 15 points or fewer five times and below 20 points in one more.
Of course, Jackson also displayed his uncapped ceiling, posting five games of 28+ fantasy points, including three over 30. Depending on your perspective, you can choose to look at Jackson’s 2023 performance through a positive or a negative lens.
Should You Draft Jackson in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
Before you reach a verdict on that, there’s another important element of Jackson’s 2023 season to be aware of. He had some really bad touchdown luck.
Running back Gus Edwards scored 13 times, and the Ravens made it a point to try and limit the amount of hits Jackson was taking. That led to them going away from quarterback runs near the end zone. By contrast, Josh Allen scored 15 rushing touchdowns last season. Jackson only accounted for 29 total touchdowns. Yet, he still surpassed 20 fantasy points per game.
With that being said, Jackson remains an excellent passer. He completed a career-high 67.2% of his throws last year and threw just seven interceptions. The dynamic QB averaged an impressive 8.0 yards per attempt, good for fourth in the league.
The gap between Jackson and Allen is pretty sizable this season. While Allen is obviously the better fantasy asset, the opportunity cost to take him is quite high. Going over two rounds later, Jackson looks mighty appealing, especially if you consider what he did last season as his floor.
We still have a ways to go in the offseason, and I want to see what the Ravens do at wide receiver and running back. However, with a core of Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, this is already the best group of pass catchers Jackson has had entering a season.
KEEP READING: 2024 Best Ball Rankings
Given how touchdown variance works, I would expect him to score more in 2024, making him a good player to target in Best Ball drafts.