The Los Angeles Chargers‘ offense will look very different in 2024 than it did last season.
Rookie WR Ladd McConkey has the potential to become the team’s WR1 right away. How ambitious should we be with his fantasy football projection?
Ladd McConkey’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 12.2
- Receptions: 698
- Receiving Yards: 1,025
- Receiving TDs: 5.
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft McConkey This Year?
From an opportunity standpoint, McConkey couldn’t have walked into a better situation. Although the Chargers project to be much more run heavy under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, there are a ton of targets available and no clear top option.
For the past decade, the Chargers WR1 was Keenan Allen. For the past half-decade, their WR2 was Mike Williams. Neither is on the team anymore. Also gone is one of the best receiving backs in NFL history, Austin Ekeler.
If we go back to 2021, the last time Allen, Williams, and Ekeler all played full seasons, they combined for 380 targets, 56.5% of the team’s total targets. The most experienced WR currently on the roster is Joshua Palmer. It’s very easy to see the path to McConkey emerging into the leading receiver.
At the same time, there are certainly concerns with McConkey’s profile. This is a player who never had more than 762 yards or 58 receptions in a college season. He caught a mere 30 passes in nine games at Georgia last year.
McConkey has never been an every-down receiver. But when he was on the field, he was extremely efficient, averaging 3.26 yards per route run. If McConkey was so effective when he did run routes, why did he run so few of them? It’s something we can’t possibly know, which makes it difficult to draw conclusions.
It also makes it difficult to project McConkey’s rookie-year production, as we don’t really know how good he is. What we do know — or rather — what I believe I know is how good the other WRs on the Chargers are.
Quentin Johnston has all the makings of a bust. I have zero confidence in him to be anything more than a rotational WR3/4, at best.
Palmer is solid and reliable. He can step up when needed. However, he’s not a true WR1 and probably is best suited to be a WR3. He keeps finding himself in a more prominent role than the team wants, but the fact that the team keeps looking for guys better than him is very telling.
Finally, we have DJ Chark, a journeyman field stretcher. If he were ever going to become a complete receiver, we would’ve seen it by now.
That brings us back to McConkey. The most likely truth is that McConkey is immediately the most talented receiver on the team. As a result, I projected him to lead the Chargers with a 22% target share. That comes out to 80 catches for 875 yards and 4.7 touchdowns.
If McConkey gets close to my projection, that would be an excellent rookie year and put him on track to be an impactful fantasy receiver for years to come. Unfortunately, it only makes him the WR40 for this year.
Despite being lower on McConkey than the PFN consensus projections, I like him and think his upside makes him worth taking a chance on in fantasy drafts.
KEEP READING: Fantasy Football Strategy
McConkey’s ADP is WR42. I have him ranked at WR40. Once I get past my clear starters, my preferred strategy is to take chances on young, unproven players as they carry more upside.
If McConkey merely hits his current projection, he will be worth his ADP. But what if Justin Herbert, who is still a very good QB, throws more than we anticipate? What if McConkey is much better than we’re projecting?
There are multiple ways in which McConkey can smash his ADP, and far fewer in which he completely fails. Don’t be afraid to push the button on McConkey as your fantasy team’s WR4 or WR5.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Analysis on Ladd McConkey
McConkey’s current ADP sits at No. 96 overall as the WR42 off the board just behind Xavier Worthy, Jordan Addison, and DeAndre Hopkins. Frankly, I’d rather have McConkey than all three of those players he is currently being taken behind. My reasoning is McConkey is simply in a better situation than all three of those names.
Worthy will be competing with Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice for targets and Hopkins is an aging player competing with Calvin Ridley for looks from a mostly unknown commodity under center in Will Levis.
Addison is potentially a second, or even third, option behind Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, who also projects to work with a rookie quarterback in J.J. McCarthy.
McConkey has the best target-share opportunity and best quarterback situation of the bunch. Nabbing him at the end of the eighth round feels like stealing, if he can manage to stay healthy in 2024.