According to Average Draft Position (ADP) data, Kyren Williams and Travis Etienne are being selected back-to-back in the second round of fantasy football drafts.
We’ve seen both produce at a top-10 level early in their careers and remain threats to do so this season in advantageous situations.
But this is no place for fence-sitting. You’re on the clock in the middle of the second round and need to break the tie. Who do the numbers like as the more stable option to be the second player on your roster?
2024 Fantasy Outlook for Kyren Williams
During his breakout campaign, Williams caught only 66.7% of his targets. Running back catch rate is consistently in the 70% region, and due to the low-risk nature of those targets, there’s no real reason to think that he won’t trend upward. If that happens, he may not only return first-round value, but he also stands to join the top tier at the position.
Last season, Williams showcased elite vision and physical running. He led all qualified RBs (minimum 110 carries) in yards per carry gained before contact, a stat that speaks to his connectivity with the offensive line as well as his ability to take advantage of overcommitted defenders.
And once Williams gets running downhill, forget about it.
Off the top of your head, who are some of the hardest runners in the league?
My guess is that Jonathan Taylor (one broken tackle every 12.1 carries in 2023), Derrick Henry (12.2), and Isiah Pacheco (13.7) all likely come to mind.
Well, Williams shed a defender once every 11 carries a season ago, putting him in a position to repeat or even improve upon his efficiency. The Blake Corum truthers out there are loud, and they might not be wrong. He put nice tape out there while at Michigan, but what’s the end game in 2024?
Does he take 10% of Williams’ base work? Could you talk yourself up to 15%? Even if that occurs, 85% of Williams’ role last season finishes as RB7 in terms of touches per game.
2024 Fantasy Outlook for Travis Etienne
In fantasy sports, I generally believe that — in the middle of the age curve — once a player proves he has a skill, he owns it. That sounds reasonably simple, but every season, ADPs tend to forget some past production.
Etienne’s upside is the perfect example of applying this train of thought, and that is why I’m going to have some shares this season. Entering his age-25 campaign, we’ve seen him do it all.
After missing his rookie year, Etienne thrived in space as a runner (5.1 yards per carry) and showed the type of explosive potential we look for from a first-year ball carrier in Year 2. As a third-year player, he not only gave us the production as the pass catcher he was tabbed to be (13 more catches in 2023 than targets the season prior), but he proved himself more than capable of handling volume at 19.1 touches per game.
What more could we ask for?
#Jaguars RB Travis Etienne said last week:
“I’m expecting an unbelievable year … they’ve been getting me more involved in the passing game, and that’s just gonna take my game to another level.” pic.twitter.com/8qspVsrMTC
— Gus Logue (@gus_logue) August 7, 2024
Etienne has yet to miss a game since his rookie season ended, and the Jacksonville Jaguars figure to count on him more, as their pass game is less intimidating on paper than it was last season. Brian Thomas Jr. (No. 23 overall pick) has replaced Calvin Ridley at receiver following a season in which quarterback Trevor Lawrence battled injuries left and right.
The continued spike in Etienne’s usage is the best way to work in Thomas and to keep the franchise signal-caller healthy, which is great news for fantasy managers!
Etienne’s yards per carry dropping by 25.5% from Year 1 to Year 2 is discouraging, but I’d caution against reading too much into it. The Jacksonville offense as a whole underachieved in 2023, which shrunk his running space.
KEEP READING: PFN’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings
That’s a minor concern, but without much role competition, I’m not worried about it when it comes to projecting 2024.
Tank Bigsby was a third-round pick in 2023, and despite limited efficiency from Etienne, he hardly sniffed the field (50 carries, 2.6 yards per carry).
D’Ernest Johnson and rookie Keilan Robinson will compete for that RB2 role and could emerge as spot-start fantasy options should Etienne get banged up, but none of them are likely to take any sort of food off his plate.
Who Should I Draft in 2024?
These two backs share a tier that I am more than comfortable with as my RB1, and I’d bet on both finishing as top-12 options when the season is done. That said, this is a game of decision-making.
When faced with this call in the middle of the second round, I continue to choose Williams over Etienne.
There were 49 running backs who carried the ball at least 100 times last season, and the difference in results between these two in terms of the percentage of attempts that picked up positive yards is illuminating.
- Williams: Fourth-highest gain percentage (87.7%, league average 81.9%)
- Etienne: Second-lowest (74.5%, only Jerome Ford was worse)
I do think Corum is more of a threat than anything that stands in the way of Etienne’s usage, but even a 15% decline in touches for Williams from what he posted last season will have him safely inside the top 10 at the position.
The Los Angeles Rams ranked eighth in points per drive, which fueled 4.6 red zone touches per game for their star running back.
Etienne isn’t getting the same benefit at the same level (2.3 red zone touches per game for a Jacksonville offense that ranked 16th in points per drive).
I’m not leaving the first two rounds without a running back this season, and while both of these options are plenty viable, give me Williams to finish with the more stable 2024 campaign.
