Kyler Murray’s injury situation has fantasy football managers scratching their heads about how to approach the Arizona Cardinals‘ fantasy assets this week. With the Cardinals starting QB a game-time decision for Week 10, what should we expect to see, and how can fantasy managers prepare for whatever comes their way this week?
Update: Kyler Murray is inactive for the Cardinals in Week 10.
Kyler Murray Injury Update
We found out ahead of the Cardinals taking to the practice field on Friday that Murray will be a game-time decision in Week 10 as he deals with a hamstring injury. He was a non-participant in practice to open the week Wednesday but was able to practice in a limited fashion on Thursday. On Saturday night, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported that a source expressed skepticism about Murray’s availability this week.
Hamstring injuries are tricky to decipher, especially for a QB that relies on his legs to make plays. Murray has been averaging 6.56 rushing attempts, 39.9 yards, and 0.22 rushing touchdowns per game so far this season.
There is a good chance that if he plays, we will see Murray’s mobility somewhat impacted. That impact will also have a knockdown effect on his passing output, as Murray may struggle to extend plays and get outside the pocket in the same way we often see.
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When it comes to Murray’s fantasy value, that lack of mobility is huge. We have seen Murray hesitant to run in the past when dealing with injuries.
While his current average rushing output may not seem like much at just under 40 yards and a touchdown once in just over every four games, the injury potentially limits his ceiling. This uncertainty will make it tough to trust Murray in fantasy lineups or in Underdog Fantasy Best Ball and DFS contests in Week 10.
Murray averages 19.4 fantasy points per game, and his legs contribute around 5.3 fantasy points per game on average. Therefore, his rushing contributes an average of 27.3% of his total fantasy output on a weekly basis. If he loses that ability to make plays with his legs, it could have an impact on his ceiling from week to week and will put more pressure on his passing game to produce for fantasy managers.
Fantasy Implications for DeAndre Hopkins, James Conner, Zach Ertz, and More
It is hard to know exactly how Murray’s injury will impact the various fantasy assets around him if he plays. He should still be able to stand and deliver the ball around the field, but the plays that the offense gets off-script may be limited. Those can often be the biggest scoring plays for pass catchers, which could limit their ceilings.
James Conner and the other running backs also must be considered. On one hand, Murray being limited should push more rushing attempts into the hands of Connor and Eno Benjamin. Murray only averages 6.56 rushing attempts per game, so it won’t provide a huge increase for either of them, but it could be as much as a 10-20 percent increase in opportunities.
However, any increase in rushing attempts could be counteracted by not having the threat of Murray in the backfield. If the Los Angeles Rams do not see Murray as a threat to take off and run the ball, then they do not need to dedicate a defender to him. That will allow them to key in on Conner or Benjamin and potentially restrict them from breaking big plays.
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The biggest impact would come if Murray is ruled out and Colt McCoy is under center. We saw a huge difference for Conner when Murray was out last year. In the three games that Murray missed in 2021, Conner saw his fantasy point output in half-PPR scoring increase from around 14 points per game to a touch under 23.4 points per game.
Conner carried the ball nearly five times more per game in those three games, finishing with around 20 more rushing yards per game. He also scored four rushing touchdowns across the three games at an average of 1.33 per game. In the games with Murray, he scored 0.92 touchdowns per game. If Murray is out, the ceiling for Conner and Benjamin increases a touch.
In terms of the passing game, there was a slight drop-off in efficiency without Murray last season. In the games that McCoy started, the Cardinals averaged 38 pass attempts per game, compared to 39 in the other games. However, their passing yards per game dropped from around 275 to around 250, and the passing touchdowns dipped from 1.7 per game to 1.0 per game.
That potential reduction in passing yards and passing touchdowns could limit the ceilings of DeAndre Hopkins, Zach Ertz, and Rondale Moore. However, individually, we saw different types of production-related changes last year when McCoy was under center.
In the three games McCoy started, Ertz actually saw a slight increase in fantasy value. He caught two touchdowns in three games and averaged close to 50 receiving yards on just under five receptions per game. He finished with just under two more fantasy points per game in half-PPR when McCoy was the QB.
Rondale Moore saw his value largely stay flat when McCoy was under center. While his receptions per game increased, he saw a slight drop in receiving yards per game and did not find the end zone in those three games.
While DeAndre Hopkins did not play in those three games with McCoy, we can look at the performances of Christian Kirk and A.J. Green for an idea of how Hopkins could’ve been impacted. Much like Moore, Kirk saw an increase in receptions but a decrease in touchdowns. That resulted in a drop of around 1.5 fantasy points per game in half-PPR.
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Meanwhile, Green saw an all-around drop in production and value. There was a decrease in fantasy output by around three fantasy points per game. That was driven by a decrease in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns per game, despite Green seeing a similar number of targets per game.
Hopkins is a more talented receiver than Green at this stage of his career and is a different style of player than Kirk. Therefore, we may not see him have the same drop-off with McCoy at QB. Additionally, it was a small sample size, and one-game variances can always make things look different. It is tough to make start-sit decisions for Hopkins, Ertz, and Moore this week simply based on the QB situation.
Additionally, we may not find out Murray’s status until late on Sunday. Therefore, fantasy managers may have to make lineup decisions regarding Hopkins, Ertz, Moore, Conner, and Benjamin before we know whether Murray is active or not.
The Rams have been a reasonably tough matchup for all positions this year, but there has been enough vulnerability in their defense that the matchup shouldn’t be the sole reason for sitting any of these options.