As the NFL season approaches, fantasy football is upon us. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Kyler Murray’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
After a blistering start to his career, the 2019 No. 1 draft pick has hit tough times. His once impressive receiving corps is now merely middling. He’s endured two consecutive injury-plagued campaigns and is still recovering after tearing his ACL last year. His longer-term preservation might necessitate a shift in usage, including more throws and handoffs and fewer QB runs.
Oh, and the Cards are one of the biggest longshots to win this season’s Super Bowl.
In other words, from a fantasy perspective, things couldn’t be going much worse for Murray. And it’s a shame because, despite all of the adversity faced by him and his team last year, he still managed to be the QB7 in fantasy points per game among those who started more than one contest.
His top receivers rarely were healthy (or not suspended) at the same time. Murray did the best he could and even upped his per-game rushing numbers compared to the season before.
So yes, in a near-perfect world, Murray can return to greatness. But probably not this year.
His return date remains up in the air. Arizona’s dire circumstances might lead the team to play it ultra-safe with their franchise QB, meaning he might be held out longer than he would have if the Cards were a championship-caliber squad.
Among skill positions, Arizona took a step back this season by unloading DeAndre Hopkins. This is no longer a fearsome receiving corps. A good group? Sure. But probably not a top-12 unit.
If Murray makes it back by midseason, he might scrape together a handful of 20+ point performances. He might also pick up a minor injury that compels the coaching staff to take a long-term view and sit him out of precaution.
There are no guarantees that Murray plays eight or even four games this year. Optimally, he can be a top-10 fantasy QB when starting. But at least for now, his days as a must-start quarterback are behind him.
Should You Draft Kyler Murray This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Murray with an ADP of QB20. Our PFN Consensus Rankings have him at QB26. Most preseasons include several guys like Murray — players whose return dates are up in the air, but when they do return, they’ll have instant value.
Different managers have different ways to assess such players. Some managers will take a guy like Murray a round or two early, stash him on IR, and then enjoy the benefits of a top-10-caliber fantasy quarterback later in the season.
Others operate differently, preferring to lock in more immediate production rather than holding out for a player who might need a week or two (or more) to regain his footing.
There is almost no doubt that once he returns to the field, Murray will outperform his ADP. So it comes down to whether you have the IR/bench space to put him aside and wait. It might lead to some tough decisions in a few weeks — for example, if another good player on your team gets hurt, and suddenly your roster situation is crammed with injured and bye-week guys.
Also, note that Murray might be tough to start when your season matters most. The Cards are on a bye in Week 14. Then the next three weeks — many leagues’ fantasy playoffs — he’ll face the 49ers at home, followed by the Bears and Eagles on the road. Chicago weather could be brutal in late December. And it’s hard to trust most QBs facing San Francisco and Philly.
So while there’s plenty of appeal to drafting a solid quarterback that late, it might be hard to trust him as a fantasy starter more than two or three games. I’d rather take my chances with an RB handcuff or ascending young QB at that spot.