Atlanta Falcons TE Kyle Pitts showed extreme fantasy football promise during his rookie season, but he has largely failed to live up to expectations since. Will Kirk Cousins unlock the star that we all believe to be beneath the surface, or is this a Charlie Brown trying to kick the football situation?
Should You Select Kyle Pitts at His Current ADP?
ADP: 61st Overall (TE7)
I have no problem with lumping Pitts into the same tier as Evan Engram and George Kittle, but going 10-15 picks ahead of them is a little aggressive for my liking.
Pitts’ upside might be on the same level as those two, but there’s value in having seen that potential achieved, a benefit of the doubt that both Kittle (three 1,000-yard seasons on his résumé and 23 scores over the past three years) and Engram (114 catches last season) get.
Every league is going to be different. The impact of Pitts’ past two seasons will result in him falling into the seventh round in some instances, and if that’s the case, I’ll bite.
At that point, most of the other tight ends I feel good about starting every week are gone, and the difference between Pitts and the “wait until the very end” options is significant. However, if his cost doesn’t come down, my shares will be limited, if not nonexistent, due to the increased depth of this position, something that has largely not existed in recent memory.
Pitts’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
There are no two ways about it — Pitts has burned fantasy managers left and right over the past two seasons.
- 2021: 1,026 receiving yards
- 2022-23: 1,023 receiving yards
While I cannot make those poor performances disappear, this is certainly a different situation. Or maybe it’s the same?
- Quarterback A: 7.55 yards per attempt and 66.9% completion percentage
- Quarterback B: 7.58 yards per attempt and 66.6% completion percentage
That first quarterback is Matt Ryan’s three years before helping Pitts post the second-best yardage season in NFL history by a rookie tight end. The second quarterback is Cousins’ past three healthy seasons.
Cousins’ health is something I’m reasonably comfortable in assuming, given his track record for nearly a decade before the Achilles injury he suffered last season.
I believe that Pitts’ knee injury was the culprit of his down 2023 season, and thus, it’s not yet fair to write off the upside that we put on his plate just two seasons ago.
Kyle Pitts pic.twitter.com/Oho1BhJytW
— 32BeatWriters (@32BeatWriters) May 20, 2024
Pitts’ physical skill set puts him in a position to pile up the yardage, and with Cousins getting multiple pass catchers 5+ touchdowns in each of his seasons with Minnesota, projecting him to double his career TD count (six) this season is well within the range of outcomes.
At the end of the day, I’m bullish on Pitts, but the industry is as well. I’m very much expecting his 57.5% career catch rate to spike with consistent play under center, if for no other reason than his aDOT (average depth of target) should regress some.
Even if everything goes right, can we justify this ADP?