Expectations were sky-high for Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts from the moment he was drafted, and that’s colored how the fantasy football community has analyzed his first two seasons. No, he hasn’t been a great fantasy football option up to this point, and yes, 2022 was especially ugly. But we are talking about a position that traditionally comes with a steep learning curve.
Now healthy, Pitts will look to take this Falcons offense to the next level as he continues his development process.
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Kyle Pitts’ Fantasy Outlook
“An offense with an underwhelming quarterback, a rookie starter in the backfield, and a pair of target hogs among the pass catchers.”
That very well could have been written last year, yet it still would be an accurate way to describe the Falcons today. Desmond Ridder (a 2022 third-round pick) takes over for Marcus Mariota as the Day 1 starter on an offense that is loaded with potential.
Second-year RB Tyler Allgeier ran for over 1,000 yards during his rookie season, but the fifth-round pick didn’t show enough to prevent Atlanta from spending the eighth overall pick on Texas’ Bijan Robinson. Maybe that’s not fair. Robinson’s scouting profile is that of legends, with his mark of over seven yards per touch during his collegiate career just being the tip of the iceberg.
When it comes to pass catchers to compete with Pitts for targets, there’s Drake London, and that’s about it. Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller are pros but not a threat to take any targets away from the uber-athletic tight end. You could make the same claim about veteran Jonnu Smith. Depth, but nothing more.
The elite target share has been there for Pitts since the second he was drafted, and that’s not going to change … it’s all a matter of the quality of those targets. And there’s hope internally (including from Pitts himself) that the quality takes a big step forward in 2023 with Ridder having some NFL reps under his belt.
What Has Caused Pitts To Disappoint Thus Far?
Trick question!
Pitts has disappointed fantasy managers, but that’s about it. His underlying metrics actually show some growth, so how could you call two seasons (one of which saw him gain 1,000 yards and the other deal with an injury) a real disappointment?
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Is the answer really because he has run unlucky in the touchdown department while the team has cycled through washed-up veterans and inexperienced options? For me, overcoming the circumstances Pitts has faced through two seasons would have been a herculean effort, not an expected task. Here’s a look at the improvement I’m talking about:
2021 metrics / 2022 metrics
- Drop rate: 2.7% / 1.7%
- Targets per route: 21.7% / 28.0%
- Targets per third down route: 17.0% / 27.9%
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Pitts at His ADP?
Pitts is more than just a pretty first name, he’s a threat to crash the Tier 1 tight end party (“Tier 2” if you count Travis Kelce as his own tier) from the sixth round.
Of course, to do so, he would need Ridder to take a big step forward in Year 2, but we’ve seen that happen plenty of times with other young QBs. The targets are safe, and the talent hasn’t gone anywhere, a profile that gives him plenty of room to return profit on your investment.
My argument above will work for most of you. A strong opinion supported by cold hard facts for a young player. That’s the goal. But I know you guys. You hold grudges. The people who are still reading that are NOT sold on Pitts as a good pick have rostered Atlanta’s tight end in either (or both) of the past two seasons.
I feel your pain. I know your pain. I’ve lived your pain.
For you, I can’t make the past hurt less. I wish I could, but I can’t. What I can tell you is that Pitts averages 64% more fantasy points per target in play-action situations than not.
I mention that metric because this franchise made it clear that they will give their rookie running back as much usage as he can handle, and with an RB assuming a role like that, play-action is naturally a part of the offense. A big part.
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Excited baby at a Penguins game meme.
All of it. I’m here for it.