The Atlanta Falcons will face the Washington Commanders in Week 17. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding TE Kyle Pitts.
Is Kyle Pitts Playing in Week 17?
Pitts is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Falcons’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Kyle Pitts in Week 17?
The quarterback change in Atlanta was met with “Hey, it can’t get any worse” analysis for most, and that premise was fine. In fact, I agree with it. But “can’t get any worse” and “will get better” are not the same, and Kyle Pitts’ fantasy managers were reminded of that last week.
I thought Michael Penix Jr. was fine in his first career start, but that didn’t mean a damn thing for his tight end. For the eighth time this season, Pitts averaged under a yard per route and is quickly becoming an expensive version of Cardio Cade Otton.
Much like the Bucs’ tight end, I guess it’s within the realm of possibilities that Pitts could have him a moment in the sun should a role open up (à la Chris Godwin’s injury in Tampa Bay), but he’s pretty clearly a read-and-react option moving forward than he is a hold-and-hope one.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 17 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Kyle Pitts’ Fantasy Points Projection in Week 17
As of Sunday morning, Pitts is projected to score 8.1 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 3 receptions for 41 yards and 0.2 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Commanders' Defense
The Commanders' overall defensive numbers aren't very impressive, but they've shown the ability to perform against lesser units. With Jalen Hurts leaving the Week 16 contest against the Eagles in the first quarter with a concussion, the Commanders capitalized on a matchup against Kenny Pickett.
Washington generated a 76.8 (C) grade against Philadelphia, ranking in the top 10 for just the fifth time all season. The Commanders' other weekly top-10 finishes came against the Browns, Panthers, Bears, and Titans, all of whom rank in the bottom 10 in Defense+ for the season.
Despite Saquon Barkley rushing for over 100 yards in the first quarter, Washington actually posted its second-best rushing success rate (70%) of the season. Over the final three quarters, Barkley accumulated just 41 yards on 22 carries, posting a woeful 18.2% rushing success rate.
Dan Quinn's unit hasn't performed to the level that his Cowboys defenses did from 2021-23, but that's not the fairest comparison, given that this was supposed to be the early stages of a rebuild. The Commanders have at least shown the ability to overwhelm one-dimensional offenses, which is more than they could say in recent seasons.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Kyle Pitts’ Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 7:25 AM ET on Sunday, December 29. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Weekly Consensus Superflex Rankings.
Week 17 TE PPR Rankings
1) Brock Bowers | LV (at NO)
2) Trey McBride | ARI (at LAR)
3) George Kittle | SF (vs. DET)
4) Jonnu Smith | MIA (at CLE)
5) Sam LaPorta | DET (at SF)
6) Mark Andrews | BAL (at HOU)
7) Travis Kelce | KC (at PIT)
8) T.J. Hockenson | MIN (vs. GB)
9) Dalton Schultz | HOU (vs. BAL)
10) Pat Freiermuth | PIT (vs. KC)
11) Chigoziem Okonkwo | TEN (at JAX)
12) Tucker Kraft | GB (at MIN)
13) Dalton Kincaid | BUF (vs. NYJ)
14) Brenton Strange | JAX (vs. TEN)
15) Jake Ferguson | DAL (at PHI)
16) Hunter Henry | NE (vs. LAC)
17) Juwan Johnson | NO (vs. LV)
18) Stone Smartt | LAC (at NE)
19) Zach Ertz | WAS (vs. ATL)
20) Kyle Pitts | ATL (at WAS)
21) Mike Gesicki | CIN (vs. DEN)
22) Will Dissly | LAC (at NE)
23) Noah Gray | KC (at PIT)
24) Isaiah Likely | BAL (at HOU)
25) Grant Calcaterra | PHI (vs. DAL)
26) Cole Kmet | CHI (vs. SEA)
27) Austin Hooper | NE (vs. LAC)
28) Noah Fant | SEA (at CHI)
29) Ja'Tavion Sanders | CAR (at TB)
30) Foster Moreau | NO (vs. LV)
31) Tyler Higbee | LAR (vs. ARI)
32) Michael Mayer | LV (at NO)
33) Tommy Tremble | CAR (at TB)
34) Daniel Bellinger | NYG (vs. IND)
35) Dawson Knox | BUF (vs. NYJ)
36) Payne Durham | TB (vs. CAR)
37) Tyler Conklin | NYJ (at BUF)
38) Jordan Akins | CLE (vs. MIA)
Falcons at Commanders Trends and Insights
Atlanta Falcons
Team: Atlanta is chasing their first winning season since 2017. Their win on Sunday prevented them from finishing with exactly seven wins for the sixth time in seven seasons.
QB: Michael Penix Jr. wasn’t perfect last week, but he did post a better QB+ grade than Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Aaron Rodgers.
Offense: In Penix’s debut, the Falcons scored 34 points and converted eight-of-14 third downs. In Kirk Cousins's final two starts, the total was 36 points and 11-of-26 on third downs.
Defense: Atlanta has allowed fewer than a point per drive three times this season – Weeks 13, 15, and 16.
Fantasy: Drake London’s EPA per target last week was his fourth-highest of the season.
Betting: Rookie QBs are 16-8-1 ATS (66.7%) on primetime since the beginning of 2022.
Washington Commanders
Team: The Commanders have three three-game win streaks this season – entering this season, they had three such streaks since Christmas of 2020.
QB: There have been two go-ahead TD passes in the final 10 seconds of regulation this season:
- Jayden Daniels in Week 8 vs. the Bears
- Jayden Daniels in Week 16 vs. the Eagles
Offense: During their current three-game winning streak, the Commanders have moved the chains on 25-of-44 third downs (56.8%).
Defense: Over the past two weeks, the Commanders have held their opponents to six-of-27 on third downs (22.2%), but those teams are four of four on fourth downs in those games.
Fantasy: What a difference a QB makes. Terry McLaurin’s on-field target share this season (20.7%) is essentially identical to last season (20.6%), but his production relative to the expectation of those looks has spiked from -4% to +44.3%).
Betting: Washington hit a rough patch in Weeks 10-12 and failed to cover three straight games – they are 9-2-1 ATS otherwise.