Minnesota Vikings WR K.J. Osborn’s dynasty value has been one of hope more than production. He scored seven times as a rookie and has flashed potential in the two years since, but playing alongside Justin Jefferson leaves only so many opportunities, while the addition of Jordan Addison in the 2023 NFL Draft by the Vikings certainly didn’t help.
Heading into his age-27 season, however, Osborn gets to test the free agent waters and potentially land in a more fantasy football-friendly situation. Let’s take a look at the 59 games of data Osborn has given us at the professional level and see what an increase in volume would mean to his overall value at the position.
K.J. Osborn’s Dynasty Outlook
Naturally, Osborn’s landing spot is going to dictate how his stock for both 2024 and the long-term future is viewed. Last season, 50 receivers ran at least 28 routes per game, and the majority of them averaged at least 33.
In the 26 games in which Osborn was unleashed for 33+ routes, he averaged 4.2 receptions, 6.3 targets, 47.7 receiving yards, and 10.7 half-PPR points per game.
Osborn’s flirting with top-40 value at the position — a threshold that he could exceed in the right situation. For a player entering his age-27 season, that’s a reasonable floor if we assume whatever team signs Osborn this offseason is interested in expanding his role past what he was given in Minnesota.
Coming out of college, Osborn’s ability to produce with the ball in his hands and adjust routes was lauded. Some of that potential was flashed last season as he ranked top 40 in route win rate (48.4%) and separation (1.9 yards), metrics that are encouraging should he be given a clear-cut WR2 role in 2024.
Will that be the case this offseason? Osborn’s fate remains to be seen, meaning uncertainty drags down his positional ranking a bit.
Osborn’s Dynasty WR Ranking
Where does Osborn land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Osborn lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2) Justin Jefferson | MIN
3) Tyreek Hill | MIA
4) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Tee Higgins | CIN
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) Puka Nacua | LAR
13) DJ Moore | CHI
14) Nico Collins | HOU
15) Rashee Rice | KC
16) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
17) Amari Cooper | CLE
18) Cooper Kupp | LAR
19) DeVonta Smith | PHI
20) DK Metcalf | SEA
21) Zay Flowers | BAL
22) Drake London | ATL
23) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
24) Davante Adams | LV
25) Mike Evans | TB
26) Tank Dell | HOU
27) Jayden Reed | GB
28) Deebo Samuel | SF
29) Calvin Ridley | JAX
30) Stefon Diggs | BUF
31) Jordan Addison | MIN
32) Keenan Allen | LAC
33) Terry McLaurin | WAS
34) George Pickens | PIT
35) Chris Godwin | TB
36) Josh Downs | IND
37) Gabe Davis | BUF
38) Michael Wilson | ARI
39) Jameson Williams | DET
40) Elijah Moore | CLE
41) Romeo Doubs | GB
42) Jerry Jeudy | DEN
43) Christian Kirk | JAX
44) Diontae Johnson | PIT
45) DeAndre Hopkins | TEN
46) Khalil Shakir | BUF
47) Joshua Palmer | LAC
48) Jahan Dotson | WAS
49) Courtland Sutton | DEN
50) Jakobi Meyers | LV
51) Treylon Burks | TEN
52) Christian Watson | GB
53) K.J. Osborn | MIN
54) Marquise Brown | ARI
55) Mike Williams | LAC
56) Tyler Lockett | SEA
57) Zay Jones | JAX
58) Jonathan Mingo | CAR
59) Quentin Johnston | LAC
60) Jalin Hyatt | NYG
Should You Trade Osborn in Dynasty?
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There are only so many chairs for these WR2s to sit in, and I worry that Osborn could be left without a spot. I challenge you to run down the list of average or better offenses and find the ones that are in the market for a player like Osborn.
That’s not to say that there aren’t any suitors (teams like the Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, and Dallas Cowboys could be in the mix), but with the influx of talent coming from the college ranks and a strong set of available receivers, Osborn is far from a lock to land in a better situation than the one he’s projected to leave.
MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
My concern here is that Osborn isn’t an overwhelming talent who can produce viable numbers in a less-than-ideal setting. He stands 5’11” and has yet to consistently make splash plays at the professional level. If he signs with one of the high-powered offenses mentioned above, I think I’d be looking to trade him if the excitement bumps up his value in a significant way.
We saw the majority of playoff teams in 2023 rely heavily on an ace receiver instead of spreading the ball around consistently (think Amari Cooper, Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and CeeDee Lamb) or rely on a creative run game (Ravens and San Francisco 49ers). Receiver depth hasn’t been a necessity, dragging down my current projection on Osborn.
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