As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Buffalo Bills WR Khalil Shakir’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Khalil Shakir’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Against the final five ranked teams he faced at Boise State, Shakir racked up 34 catches for 431 yards and four scores. When Buffalo drafted him early in the fifth round last year, there was little question that he could compete at the next level. However, there were major questions concerning how Buffalo planned to use him.
The Bills aren’t your run-of-the-mill NFL offense. With one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the league — and perhaps top 10 in the history of the game — an alpha No. 1 WR, an ascending No. 2 WR, a strong No. 3 WR, a TD-friendly tight end, and a burgeoning backfield, where would Shakir fit in?
It went about as expected. Shakir caught 10 of 20 targets for 161 yards and a score. His two drops were concerning. But in fairness, it was a small sample size. There’s room to grow.
However, the Bills bolstered their offense even more this past offseason. The more bell-cow-experienced Damien Harris has replaced Devin Singletary. While Isaiah McKenzie moved to Indy, Buffalo brought in Miami’s No. 3 WR, Trent Sherfield. They also invested steep draft capital in TE Dalton Kincaid.
This is still a crowded offense. And although Shakir might end up being the No. 3 WR this season, he might be a distant third behind Stefon Diggs and potential breakout Gabriel Davis.
There’s a lot of pop to Shakir’s game. If he can earn McKenzie-level attention (four to five targets per contest), then he might one-up McKenzie and finish in the top 50 among fantasy WRs.
Still, expectations should be muted. On any given play, Buffalo might look to one of eight “main” options, and that assumes a No. 4 WR (like Sherfield) doesn’t step up. So yes, there’s enough capacity for Shakir to hit a 45-650-2 receiving line. But a lot of things need to break right, and a slow start could push him down the depth chart in a hurry.
Should You Draft Khalil Shakir This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Shakir with an ADP of WR82. Our PFN Consensus Rankings have him at WR93. For context, McKenzie was the WR66 in points per game last season. The odds of Shakir exceeding ADP expectations are quite good. And, of course, the top 50 — and deep-league, bye-week streamability — is doable.
So, on the one hand, it would make sense to draft Shakir a round or two early. On the other hand, it depends on your league. In Best Ball, he’s a great reach because WR80 is more of a worst-case-scenario floor. So you’re locking in value.
But in a very deep league where 275+ players come off the board, you might want to be more strategic. Shakir might have only two or three “must-start” fantasy outings for all the reasons highlighted above.
There are untested rookies valued similarly and with much higher ceilings. If you’re looking for the ultimate boom/bust play, go with a rookie. If you’re hoping to snag a potential top 45-55 receiver, at best, then go with Shakir.