The Buffalo Bills‘ high-powered offense made the courageous decision to part ways with both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason. This presents the current collection of pass catchers on the Bills’ roster with an opportunity to emerge as big-time fantasy football producers this upcoming season.
Does Khalil Shakir have a legitimate shot to be the highest-scoring fantasy receiver in Buffalo in 2024?
Should You Select Khalil Shakir at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 136th Overall (WR52)
- Slow Start in 2023: Shakir began the 2023 season as a role player, with just eight receptions for 75 yards and one touchdown through the first seven games. His limited usage placed him as WR103 in full-PPR formats during this stretch.
- Expanded Role: Shakir’s breakout performance in Week 9 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where he caught six passes for 92 yards, led to a significant increase in his role. From Week 8 onward, Shakir was the WR46 in full-PPR formats, averaging 9.2 fantasy points per game.
- Overall 2023 Production: Shakir finished the 2023 season with 39 receptions for 611 yards and two touchdowns, ending as WR61 overall. While these numbers show progress, they indicate that Shakir is still developing as a reliable fantasy starter.
- Yards After Catch (YAC) Ability: Shakir ranked third in the NFL in YAC among players with 30+ receptions, averaging 7.2 yards after the catch. This highlights his potential as a playmaker when given opportunities.
- Vacated Targets in Buffalo: The departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis have left 241 targets, 152 receptions, 1,929 yards, and 15 touchdowns up for grabs in Buffalo. While this opens the door for Shakir, the team also added Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman, creating competition for targets.
- Potential Role: Shakir could take on a role similar to Cole Beasley’s in 2020, where Beasley finished as WR27 with 82 receptions for 967 yards and four touchdowns. Shakir’s 69% slot usage last season aligns with this potential role.
- ADP Analysis: Shakir’s ADP of WR52 indicates skepticism among fantasy managers about his breakout potential. However, his RAC ability, improvement in 2023, and established rapport with Josh Allen suggest he could be a valuable fantasy asset.
- Final Verdict: Shakir offers solid upside at his current ADP, especially considering the vacated targets in Buffalo’s offense. While there is competition for targets, Shakir’s ability to create after the catch and his familiarity with the offense make him a discounted way to invest in the Bills’ passing game for 2024.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Khalil Shakir
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Shakir is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead.
54) Josh Downs, WR | Indianapolis Colts
55) Romeo Doubs, WR | Green Bay Packers
56) Adonai Mitchell, WR | Indianapolis Colts
57) Brandin Cooks, WR | Dallas Cowboys
58) Jerry Jeudy, WR | Cleveland Browns
59) Khalil Shakir, WR | Buffalo Bills
60) Rashid Shaheed, WR | New Orleans Saints
61) Joshua Palmer, WR | Los Angeles Chargers
62) Gabe Davis, WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
63) DeMario Douglas, WR | New England Patriots
64) Jahan Dotson, WR | Washington Commanders
Khalil Shakir’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Through the first seven games of the 2023 season, Shakir looked like nothing more than a package-specific role player in Buffalo’s offense, with just eight receptions for 75 yards and one score as the WR103 in full-PPR formats.
Yet, Shakir’s expanded role and production against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 9, which resulted in six receptions for 92 yards on six targets, led to his role significantly expanding over the back half of his second NFL season.
From Week 8 through the rest of the regular season, Shakir was the WR46 in full-PPR formats. He totaled 31 receptions for 536 yards and one score, with an average of 9.2 fantasy points per game through that span.
These may not be league-winning numbers, but this role alongside Diggs, Davis, and Dalton Kincaid certainly isn’t worth scoffing at either. In fact, Shakir actually outscored Davis during this span by 8.7 fantasy points.
When you look at Shakir’s overall production from 2023, he finished as the WR61 overall with 39 receptions for 611 yards and two scores. He took a nice step in the right direction last year, but he’s still a bit away from being a reliable fantasy starter based on those numbers alone.
One encouraging sign was Shakir’s average of 7.2 yards after the catch, which ranked third behind only Deebo Samuel Sr. and Rashee Rice for players with 30+ receptions in 2023. This showcased that Shakir can be a very productive player when he has the ball in his hands.
Entering 2024, the Bills have purged 241 targets, 152 receptions, 1,929 yards, and 15 touchdowns worth of receiving production off the roster this offseason with the departures of Diggs and Davis. While this is exciting for Shakir potentially seeing a bigger role in the passing game, this has been coupled with Buffalo signing Curtis Samuel and drafting Keon Coleman this offseason.
Samuel is a proven veteran with a similar skill set to Shakir, while Coleman has physical tools to potentially operate outside as an X receiver but has some issues consistently creating separation.
In an ideal world, Shakir could see a similar role to Cole Beasley’s in 2020, when the former Bill finished as the WR27 with 82 receptions for 967 yards and four scores from 107 targets.
Shakir lined up in the slot for 69% of his snaps last year, which echoes Beasley’s usage in this offense during his best years with the Bills. Since Buffalo doesn’t have an established alpha target earner on the roster anymore, this certainly feels like it’s within the range of outcomes.
Is Shakir a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Shakir’s ADP of No. 136 overall (WR52 off the board) means fantasy managers aren’t quite convinced he’ll become a reliable fantasy starter in 2024. For some additional context, he’s actually being drafted right after his Bills’ teammate (Samuel) and right before Romeo Doubs and Mike Williams.
This is a tricky situation to sort through since, given all the roster changes, we can’t determine how these roles will actually play out this upcoming season.
We do know that Shakir is a playmaker with the ball in his hands as a RAC threat, though, having displayed noteworthy improvement in his second season and already has rapport built with Josh Allen when compared to Buffalo’s other pass catchers.
Shakir may not be the dynamic vertical weapon that Diggs or Davis were for Allen the last couple of years, but could his role mirror Beasley’s from previous seasons? Yes, I believe that is within the range of outcomes.
At their current respective prices, I believe Shakir presents a similar amount of fantasy upside to that of his teammates but comes with the best draft value — which makes a discounted way to get a piece of this Bills’ passing game on your fantasy team in 2024.
