Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir had some nice moments as a rookie but was nothing more than a bit player buried on the depth chart. In the wake of Gabe Davis underperforming and Isaiah McKenzie leaving, is there a path to regular playing time for Shakir? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Khalil Shakir’s Fantasy Outlook
As a fifth-round rookie, it’s no surprise that Shakir barely played. He saw just 20 targets all season. As a result, there’s not much to glean from his performance.
All we really want to see from a guy like Shakir is potential. In Week 5, he put that on display when he caught three passes for 75 yards and a touchdown, scoring 16.5 PPR fantasy points.
So, what was special about that game? Was it just a random occurrence? Well, yes, but also no.
Shakir didn’t play more than 40% of the snaps in any game last season … except Week 5, when he played 71% of them. He didn’t run more than 10 routes in any game … except Week 5, when he ran 19 of them.
Of course, this is the smallest of sample sizes. But when it comes to guys who already have low probabilities of hitting, all we want to see is that fantasy-relevant production is possible.
With that said, if Shakir is going to be a fantasy factor at all, he will need to see a significant increase in usage. Fortunately, there’s a path to that happening.
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For starters, Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder are gone. They also operated out of the slot, with McKenzie as the starter. That opens the door for Shakir to be the Bills’ primary slot receiver and start in three-receiver sets.
Next, we have the Gabe Davis issue. Simply put, Davis isn’t particularly good at football. While he still projects to start opposite Stefon Diggs, that didn’t exactly go well last season. Davis has neither the talent nor the draft capital to fend off a serious challenge. If Shakir presents that serious challenge, he could end up as the WR2.
For as great as the Bills offense is, it’s severely lacked in the playmaking department outside of Diggs and Josh Allen himself. Now, we shouldn’t go expecting a fifth-round sophomore receiver with 20 career targets to light the world on fire. But there’s at least a path to him seeing enough volume to be a fantasy WR4 if things break right.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Shakir at His ADP?
With a WR89 ADP, Shakir is basically free. The only true opportunity cost is the ability to throw a dart at a different late-round player.
When taking shots on late-round players with low probabilities of success, one of the types of players you want to look for is a WR2 or WR3 on a good offense. Shakir checks that box.
I have Shakir projected for 36 catches for 493 yards and three touchdowns. That’s 6.1 ppg. It shouldn’t be a surprise I have him projected that low, nor a deterrent. Taking Shakir in the final rounds of fantasy drafts is taking a shot that he emerges as the second or third option in the Bills’ pass-first offense. If not, you can easily drop him.
Shakir is currently my WR86, which is outside the 72ish receivers typically selected in standard-sized 12-team leagues. He’s in dart-throw territory and not much better or worse than any of the other guys going in his range. If you want to take a shot on him, go for it. If not, there are plenty of other darts to throw.