Chicago Bears running back Khalil Herbert looked like the best RB on the team every time he filled in for an injured David Montgomery. With the latter gone, Herbert is the incumbent with the inside track to the lead-back role. What is his fantasy football projection for 2023?
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Khalil Herbert’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
One of the trickiest backfields to figure out heading into the upcoming season is the Bears’. With Montgomery gone, Herbert certainly has the pole position for the lead-back role, but Chicago signed D’Onta Foreman, who was effective in Carolina last year and spent a Day 3 pick on rookie Roschon Johnson.
Last season, Herbert averaged 9.1 PPR fantasy points per game. He finished as the overall RB37, which is certainly enough to warrant a season-long spot on fantasy rosters.
Of course, Herbert didn’t exactly give fantasy managers around nine ppg. Not even close. Herbert posted weeks of 30.9, 15.7, and 15.9 fantasy points in Weeks 3, 7, and 8, respectively. Those totals accounted for 53% of his total fantasy points. In his other 10 games, Herbert averaged just 5.5 ppg.
The difference, of course, was Montgomery’s health. With Montgomery active, Herbert was just a backup. Without Montgomery, Herbert proved capable of being the lead back.
Herbert was incredibly efficient last season. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry. His 3.29 yards created per touch was ninth in the league, and his 5.7 yards per touch was seventh. Herbert’s 39.1% evaded tackles per touch rate was seventh in the NFL as well.
While Herbert’s efficiency will undoubtedly drop with more volume, his production can be sustained by that increase. The question is whether he’ll be able to maintain an increase in volume.
Should You Draft Khalil Herbert This Year?
Given what we know Herbert’s ceiling to be, the only real justification behind his RB37, No. 105 overall ADP, is his uncertain workload. If we knew Herbert was going to be the lead back with at least a 50% opportunity share, he’d be firmly inside the top 30.
To be fair, the workload concerns are significant. Herbert is a 2021 sixth-round pick competing with a rookie fifth-rounder and a guy who spent about four years recovering from a torn Achilles. The Bears have absolutely no allegiance to any of these players. That gives all of them a fair opportunity to earn work, but it also means none of them will ever have job security.
There are multiple ways in which Herbert flops. First and foremost, he could just play poorly. We’ve seen plenty of running backs look good on limited opportunities only to struggle when thrust into a feature role.
Second, Herbert could get hurt. One of the biggest concerns with drafting RBs is whether they’re good enough to retain their jobs when they return. It really doesn’t matter how well Herbert is playing. If he gets hurt and one of Johnson or Foreman looks really good, Herbert’s not coming back to the same role.
Third, Johnson and/or Foreman could simply outplay Herbert and flip the timeshare. It’s fair to expect all three to see work early in the season, but the split is very much up in the air. If Johnson or Foreman stands out, they could easily climb the depth chart and relegate Herbert to second or third string.
All three backs will likely see time on fantasy rosters due to the ambiguity of Chicago’s backfield and the potential to capitalize on injury. But it’s difficult to envision it being a three-man timeshare the entire season. It will likely evolve into a 50-40-10 split. Your guess is as good as mine as to who occupies the 50% and 40% roles. Fantasy managers will be quickly dropping the guy in the 10% role.
I have Herbert ranked at RB37 as the presumptive starter to open the season. When I initially did my rankings, I was very unsure of this backfield. Over the summer, my confidence in Herbert as the lead back grew. I now have him firmly ahead of Johnson (RB51) and Foreman (RB52).
All three players are worth taking a shot on, and Herbert isn’t exactly someone I’m excited to draft. But I do believe Herbert is correctly going firmly ahead of the other two.