The Buffalo Bills are going to look very different offensively this season. Gone are Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Among the notable replacements is rookie second-rounder Keon Coleman. Can the young WR make an immediate impact in fantasy football?
Should You Select Keon Coleman at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 105th Overall (WR45)
- Offensive Changes: The Buffalo Bills’ offense will look different in 2024 with the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Rookie WR Keon Coleman is one of the key replacements.
- Strengths and Weaknesses: Coleman is a contested-catch specialist, which is both a strength and a potential weakness. While he excels in contested situations, the ability to consistently get open is crucial for NFL success. Historically, contested-catch WRs have struggled in the NFL.
- Comparison to Nico Collins: Nico Collins is one of the few contested-catch WRs to succeed in the NFL, but he struggled early in his career. Coleman could follow a similar trajectory, potentially leading to early struggles that may limit his fantasy impact in 2024.
- Opportunity in Buffalo: With Diggs and Davis gone, Coleman has a prime opportunity to contribute immediately. The Bills have 241 vacated targets, and while Curtis Samuel may out-target Coleman, there’s still room for significant target share.
- ADP Analysis: Coleman’s current ADP is WR45, No. 105 overall, which is reasonable. He’s ranked as WR48, making him a viable late-round pick with a wide range of outcomes.
- Final Verdict: Despite concerns about Coleman’s contested-catch profile, his situation in Buffalo offers potential. As a WR4 or WR5, he’s worth drafting at his ADP due to the upside, even though there’s a risk it may not pan out.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Keon Coleman
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Smith is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus TE rankings instead.
39) Hollywood Brown, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
40) DeAndre Hopkins, WR | Tennessee Titans
41) Calvin Ridley, WR | Tennessee Titans
42) Xavier Worthy, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
43) Courtland Sutton, WR | Denver Broncos
44) Keon Coleman, WR | Buffalo Bills
45) Rome Odunze, WR | Chicago Bears
46) Curtis Samuel, WR | Buffalo Bills
47) Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | Seattle Seahawks
48) Jameson Williams, WR | Detroit Lions
49) Jordan Addison, WR | Minnesota Vikings
Keon Coleman’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
The 2024 rookie WR class is a fascinating one. There will undoubtedly be hits outside of the big three. However, the fantasy community is divided on who those receivers might be. Coleman is one of the more polarizing prospects to enter the NFL in recent memory.
Coleman was an early declaration, entering the NFL at just 21. That’s a positive checkmark for him. His final two seasons at Florida State and Michigan State were very good but far from dominant. He did post some impressive highlight-reel catches and clearly has good ball skills.
On the negative side of things, Coleman has been described as a contested-catch specialist. It’s awesome that he’s great at contested catches, but that’s not exactly a good thing. We want wide receivers getting open. Historically, contested-catch wide receivers don’t pan out at the NFL level.
Here's every instance of a WR (drafted Rounds 1-3 since 2020) who saw at least 27.5% of their targets come on contested targets in a single season (min. 50 targets): pic.twitter.com/D5bigptf4T
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) March 5, 2024
There is exactly one hit out of this group: Nico Collins. And Collins is clearly an outlier, struggling mightily his first two seasons before breaking out amid a massive QB upgrade in Year 3.
To be clear, Collins’ 2023 season was no fluke. The point is that Collins was not a great prospect or receiver for two years — he just got better. Coleman could certainly be in for a similarly positive fate. However, it stands to reason he might also struggle early in his career, which does fantasy managers no favors in 2024.
Is Coleman a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Depending on which aspects of Coleman’s profile you choose to prioritize, you can view him favorably or unfavorably. There is a world where he becomes a reliable outside X receiver for the Bills. If he fails, it certainly won’t be for lack of opportunity.
Coleman couldn’t ask for much better of a situation. Two of the Bills’ top three target earners from last season are no longer on the team. Diggs and Davis leave behind a total of 241 vacated targets. The only other meaningful addition to the passing game was signing Curtis Samuel.
Samuel may very well out-target Coleman this season, but he’s not about to gobble up more than half of those targets. Even that would be a reach. Coleman is probably not getting half, either. But there are plenty of targets available.
In an era where rookie WR ADPs are inflated, Coleman’s is quite reasonable at WR45, No. 105 overall. I have him ranked as my WR48, a meaningless distinction this late in drafts.
Overall, I am not necessarily a believer in Coleman. I buy into the contested-catch thing being an issue. Generally, I will fade that type of player.
With that said, there is always a chance I am wrong. We should all consider the possibility that our evaluation of players is wrong when we draft, especially in the later rounds.
Coleman is an unknown. That means he has a wide range of outcomes. As my WR4 or WR5, I’d rather swing at that type of player than draft a more reliable veteran who doesn’t get more than 11-12 fantasy points per game. Even though I don’t think it will work out, I’m willing to draft Coleman at his ADP this season.