The Buffalo Bills will face the Denver Broncos on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding WR Keon Coleman.
Is Keon Coleman Playing vs. the Broncos?
Coleman is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Bills’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Keon Coleman on Wild Card Weekend?
The Broncos ranked second in the league in pressure rate this season and are the only team inside the top five to qualify for the postseason. Could that open the door for a Keon Coleman breakout?
His target rate is the least impacted when Josh Allen is under duress among Bills receivers, and the Broncos have quietly allowed the eighth-highest completion percentage on deep balls since Week 11.
Bills pass catchers’ target splits with Allen, 2024:
- Coleman: 16.3% when pressured vs. 18.2% when not
- Khalil Shakir: 21.2% when pressured vs. 31.3% when not
- Amari Cooper: 12.8% when pressured vs. 29.3% when not
- Dalton Kincaid: 21% when pressured vs. 32.2% when not
I’m nothing if not a sharer of information, so while I’m not labeling Coleman as the next DK Metcalf, the profiles are similar.
Metcalf’s profile, 2024:
- Second-round pick standing 6’4” tall
- 18.8% regular season on-field target share (13.7 aDOT)
- TD on 7% of targets
Coleman’s profile, 2024:
- Second-round pick standing 6’4” tall
- 17.6% regular season on-field target share (15.5 aDOT)
- TD on 7% of targets
That’s at least interesting, isn’t it? Metcalf, like Coleman, had a mid-season explosion game with 120+ yards and a 50-yard reception while earning double-digit targets in the regular season finale.
Metcalf’s introduction to the postseason was a 7-160-1 showing in Philadelphia. Asking for that is a lot, but I like the way things line up for the 33rd-overall pick.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Keon Coleman’s Fantasy Points Projection on Wild Card Weekend
As of Sunday, Coleman is projected to score 11.5 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 2.3 receptions for 68.2 yards and 0.4 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Chiefs' Defense
The Chiefs were a top-10 defense entering Week 18 but saw their ranking tank after the backups flopped against the Broncos.
With the varsity team back for the Divisional Round, Kansas City demonstrated the type of disruptiveness this unit can generate at full strength. Steve Spagnuolo's blitz-heavy game plan overwhelmed the Texans. The Chiefs generated pressure on 73.3% of their blitzes against Houston, the highest by any team to send 15+ blitzes in a game this season.
The only area of concern to emerge from the Divisional Round was the third-down defense. Excluding Week 18, Kansas City allowed its second-highest third-down conversion rate (58.8%) all season. The only higher rate they allowed was to their AFC Championship Game opponent, as the Bills converted 60% of their third downs in Week 11.
After some shaky weeks and midseason questions, the Chiefs appear to be peaking ahead of their eighth straight AFC title game. That's a familiar story and could result in a familiar ending in February as well.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Keon Coleman’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.
Conference Championship WR PPR Rankings
1) A.J. Brown | PHI (vs. WAS)
2) Terry McLaurin | WAS (at PHI)
3) DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs. WAS)
4) Khalil Shakir | BUF (at KC)
5) Xavier Worthy | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Hollywood Brown | KC (vs. BUF)
7) DeAndre Hopkins | KC (vs. BUF)
8) Keon Coleman | BUF (at KC)
9) Dyami Brown | WAS (at PHI)
10) Mack Hollins | BUF (at KC)
11) Amari Cooper | BUF (at KC)
12) Curtis Samuel | BUF (at KC)
13) Olamide Zaccheaus | WAS (at PHI)
14) JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC (vs. BUF)
15) Jahan Dotson | PHI (vs. WAS)
16) Jamison Crowder | WAS (at PHI)
17) Luke McCaffrey | WAS (at PHI)
18) Justin Watson | KC (vs. BUF)
19) Johnny Wilson | PHI (vs. WAS)
20) Parris Campbell | PHI (vs. WAS)
21) Nikko Remigio | KC (vs. BUF)
22) Ainias Smith | PHI (vs. WAS)
Bills at Chiefs Trends and Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills lost four road games during the regular season — only four Super Bowl champions in the 2000s have done that (2018 Patriots, 2012 Ravens, 2010 Packers, and 2006 Colts).
QB: Five times has a QB had four games in a season (playoffs included) with multiple rush touchdowns and 20 pass attempts.
- 2021 Jalen Hurts
- 2022 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Josh Allen
- 2024 Josh Allen
No player has had five such games in a season.
Offense: The Bills have scored on at least 55% of their possessions six times this season, four of which have come against playoff teams.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to pick up 70% of their third downs. That’s the fourth-highest rate the Bills have allowed in the 2000s and is their highest in a winning effort.
Fantasy: Allen has completed over 72% of his passes in both playoff wins – he had three such games during the regular season.
Betting: Overs are 5-2 in Buffalo’s past seven games, cashing last week by half a point with Baltimore's final touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Christmas Day 2023 was the date of Kansas City’s last home loss – each of their past six Arrowhead games have been decided by a single possession.
QB: Patrick Mahomes has thrown a total of three touchdown passes in his last two Championship games (3.7% of his attempts) after throwing three in each of his first four appearances (8.4%).
Offense: Saturday was the 10th time this season in which the Chiefs scored on at least half of their possessions (five-of-nine against Houston).
Defense: Opponents have picked up at least half of their third downs in four straight games against the Chiefs (Texans: 10-of-17).
Fantasy: In the last two games in which their starters have been extended, the Chiefs have managed to turn 42 carries into just 119 yards (2.83 yards per carry).
Betting: By taking an intentional safety at the end of their win over the Texans, the Chiefs snapped their six-game playoff cover streak.
