Coming off one of his worst games of the season, can fantasy football managers trust Kenyan Drake for their fantasy playoffs in Week 16? Let’s take a look at Drake’s season so far, his current situation, and his Week 16 matchup.
2020 has been a mixed year for Kenyan Drake from a fantasy point of view
Entering Week 16 of the 2020 season, Kenyan Drake ranks as an RB1 for fantasy football managers in PPR scoring. Drake has amassed 171.1 fantasy points, placing him just behind Jonathan Taylor and Antonio Gibson in 12th.
On a per-game basis, Drake is a low-end RB, averaging 13.2 fantasy points per game. While Drake ranks 24th in per-game numbers, his 14th ranking in terms of Pro Football Network’s Consistency Score underlies how he has been a reliable option for fantasy managers in 2020.
Expectations were high after a strong finish in 2019
There were plenty of expectations for Kenyan Drake to succeed for fantasy managers in 2020. The departure of David Johnson, combined with a strong finish to 2019, had many excited for what Drake could deliver in Arizona.
In his eight games with the Cardinals in 2019, Drake averaged 19.9 fantasy points per game. Those eight games included two performances over 30 points, another over 20, and a fourth that topped 15 fantasy points. Meanwhile, his lowest return was 7.1 fantasy points against the Rams. In his time with the Cardinals, Drake demonstrated he could have a safe floor as well as an explosively high ceiling.
2020 has been somewhat the same. The floor has been slightly lower (3.5 in Week 4), and the ceiling lower (two weeks over 20 fantasy points). However, 13.2 fantasy points per game is a solid return. His Fantasy Points Differential of four percent emphasizes how 2020 has seen Drake do what was expected, but nothing above and beyond that.
The heightened expectations led to Kenyan Drake being drafted as the 13th RB off the board. On a per-game basis, his numbers have not been up to that standard. However, overall, he has done exactly what he was drafted to accomplish for fantasy managers.
How has the Cardinals’ backfield shaped up this season?
The departure of David Johnson left Kenyan Drake as the Cardinals lead back this season. Drake has led the team with 211 carries (16.2 carries per game), with Kyler Murray and Chase Edmonds splitting 217 more. In terms of targets out of the backfield, Edmonds has seen 62, compared to just 26 for Drake.
Drake has seen the majority of carries, but his usage has been inconsistent
Kenyan Drake has not seen less than 10 carries in any of the 13 games he has been active in. His maximum was in Week 14 when he carried the ball 23 times for 80 yards and a touchdown. However, in the past five weeks, Drake has seen either 10 or 11 carries three times. In the other two, he has seen 22 and 23, respectively, but the up and down nature is concerning.
When it comes to the receiving game this season, the Cardinals have leaned on Edmonds. However, in Week 11, Drake saw five targets, followed by four in Week 14. Any hope that that was a sign he would see more targets in the final few weeks has been dashed with six targets in total over the last three weeks.
Edmonds has been a big factor in the passing game
Chase Edmonds has seen just two games with double-digit carries. The first was in Week 9 when Kenyan Drake was held out through injury. However, concerningly, Edmonds carried the ball 11 times in the Week 15 win over the Eagles. Edmonds was the more effective back, averaging 4.27 yards per carry, while Drake had 10 carries for 26 yards. Given that Drake averaged just 6.33 carries per game in the previous three weeks, there is no immediate reason for concern.
However, the passing game is where Edmonds has shined. He has seen less than four targets in just four weeks, seeing five or more in eight games. Those targets have meant that Drake averages 11.5 fantasy points in PPR formats. At 160.7 total points, he is just 10.4 fantasy points behind Drake.
What should we expect from Kenyan Drake in Week 16 of the fantasy season?
Drake, who is playing on the transition tag in 2020, could do with a strong finish to the season. Kliff Kingsbury has not been shy about mixing up his back, with Drake having not played over 60% of the snaps since Week 6.
How does the Week 16 matchup shape up for Kenyan Drake?
The 49ers have been a somewhat tough defense to play against for the RB position. They rank sixth-best against the position in terms of PPR fantasy points allowed per game. Pro Football Network’s Defensive Points Allowed Consistency Score has them as the fifth toughest defense for a running back to consistently score highly against.
If we break that down further, we can see most of their success has come against the run game. They allow an average of 74.8 yards per game at 3.8 yards per attempt to the position. With eight rushing touchdowns allowed, only six teams have allowed more this season, and they have yet to allow a 100-yard rushing game to an opposing back.
When it comes to the receiving, they rank in the middle of the pack for receptions, yards per game, and touchdowns. This means they are a slightly easier matchup, but not by much.
How important could the red zone be?
Kenyan Drake has dominated the red zone rushing attempts, with 51. In comparison, Murray has 19 and Edmonds 16. However, Week 15 saw Edmonds and Drake split the four red zone carries equally, another concerning sign. In the three weeks prior, Drake had led the pair 21-4 in red zone carries.
Unfortunately, the 49ers are also a solid red zone defense against running backs. On average, they allow six fantasy points per game in the red zone. That is good enough for the 10th best in the league.
What does Kenyan Drake offer in Week 16?
Drake should be considered a safe floor play who has a high potential upside. Assuming he goes back to his control of the red zone carries, there is always the potential for a touchdown of two. Meanwhile, he appears locked in for a minimum of 10-12 touches, with an upside of over 20. In a crucial week for the fantasy football playoffs, Kenyan Drake should be a solid pick to produce in Week 16.
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