Pittsburgh Steelers QB Kenny Pickett’s dynasty value is tough to gauge because the team isn’t sure how they feel about the former first-round pick. “Internal division” is how this situation has been described following a very underwhelming start to his career, a label that rightfully has fantasy football managers unsure of what to do.
Let’s take a deep dive into the numbers he has put on paper through 25 career games and decide if his poor counting stats tell the full story.
Kenny Pickett’s Dynasty Outlook
There’s a reason that the Steelers are uncertain of Pickett’s future with the team –- he hasn’t shown us much of anything to think otherwise. He has just as many interceptions as touchdown passes on his 713 attempts (13 apiece) and is averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt (18.2% below the NFL average for 2023).
The #Steelers are 5-1 in primetime games when Kenny Pickett starts at QB.
How will Pickett and company fare when they host the #Titans tonight on #TNF? 🤔
Key stats and players to watch: https://t.co/Q925vyOOse pic.twitter.com/d0qujppjj1
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 2, 2023
The raw counting numbers are discouraging, and things don’t get any better the deeper you dive. In 2023, Pickett saw his aDOT (average depth of target) drop by 6.6%. A decline in that regard doesn’t worry me by itself, but when you consider that his completion percentage regressed by a percentage point instead of increasing, a red flag gets raised.
Pickett was drafted into the NFL with the idea that his mobility would be an asset after scoring 20 times on the ground during his collegiate career. That, however, wasn’t part of his production profile in 2023, as he ran for just 54 yards and one score in his 12 games.
In short, Pickett has yet to deliver on any of the promises he came into the league with and is fighting for his job as we prepare to enter 2024.
Pickett’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Pickett land in the dynasty QB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Pickett lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Patrick Mahomes | KC
2) Jalen Hurts | PHI
3) Josh Allen | BUF
4) Anthony Richardson | IND
5) Joe Burrow | CIN
6) Lamar Jackson | BAL
7) C.J. Stroud | HOU
8) Justin Herbert | LAC
9) Trevor Lawrence | JAX
10) Dak Prescott | DAL
11) Justin Fields | CHI
12) Tua Tagovailoa | MIA
13) Kyler Murray | ARI
14) Brock Purdy | SF
15) Jordan Love | GB
16) Deshaun Watson | CLE
17) Jared Goff | DET
18) Kirk Cousins | MIN
19) Will Levis | TEN
20) Sam Howell | WAS
21) Geno Smith | SEA
22) Aaron Rodgers | NYJ
23) Bryce Young | CAR
24) Daniel Jones | NYG
25) Derek Carr | NO
26) Baker Mayfield | TB
27) Kenny Pickett | PIT
28) Matthew Stafford | LAR
29) Desmond Ridder | ATL
30) Russell Wilson | DEN
31) Trey Lance | DAL
32) Mac Jones | NE
33) Jimmy Garoppolo | LV
34) Ryan Tannehill | TEN
35) Jacoby Brissett | WAS
36) Andy Dalton | CAR
Should You Trade Pickett in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Pickett? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
In standard one-QB leagues, there’s no need to have Pickett rostered. If your dynasty league is a Superflex situation, there aren’t likely to be viable options on the waiver wire, and thus you’re probably forced to hold until the depth chart comes into focus.
This Pickett experience, no matter how it ends, serves as a good reminder as to why your job as a dynasty fantasy manager is never complete. You should always be looking to improve your depth –- Pickett was a first-round pick in 2022, entering an offense with reasonable weapons and a franchise that had a history of success.
On the surface, his versatility and situation profiled as a strong fantasy asset for years to come, but not all prospects work out.
There is nothing wrong with embracing youth, but understand that you need backup plans. Drafting Pickett as your QB of the future back in 2022 wasn’t the mistake — not having other options if it didn’t work out was. This is especially true at the quarterback position, the highest-scoring slot in most leagues.
I rarely carry a backup quarterback in redraft leagues; those leagues come with more shallow benches and, given the depth of talent at the position, I can stream the position if push comes to shove.
That’s simply not the case in a dynasty setting. Due to the size of the rosters, streaming a spot in your starting lineup is more challenging and can prove fatal at a one-off position where you’re now giving your opponent a big advantage before the games even start.
My rule of thumb is to vary my exposure at both quarterback and tight end. That is, I want two very different profiles on my roster. If I am taking a risk on a prospect, I want to back him up with a veteran with whom I feel confident in providing me with a reasonable floor if I’m forced to use him.
MORE: 2024 Dynasty QB Rankings
The opposite is true as well — if my QB1 is a floor play, I want to layer in some upside behind him on my fantasy depth chart.
Of course, every team in every league is built differently, but depth is always going to be important. We build DFS rosters every week under the assumption that we will be right for that week, and that makes sense — the goal in those situations is to win big.
The opposite is closer to how I approach building a dynasty: I’m more likely to overestimate the risk I am taking on to give my team the best chance to succeed, even if things don’t go exactly according to plan.
Read More 2024 Dynasty Profiles
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