Former Detroit Lions wide receiver Kenny Golladay signed a four-year, $72 million contract with $40 million guaranteed to join the New York Giants this past offseason. This is a sizeable dollar amount for a receiver who has only played in 47 games since 2017. Nevertheless, Golladay will be the undisputed No. 1 receiver in a Giants’ offense that struggled mightily in 2020. So, how should managers view him for fantasy football at his current ADP, and what is Golladay’s outlook for 2021?
Kenny Golladay’s fantasy outlook for 2021
When analyzing what’s to come, it’s important to review Golladay’s statistical body of work. He provides Daniel Jones with a big-bodied receiver that excels at contested catches. Golladay spent his first three NFL seasons catching passes from former Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford. He didn’t average a high number of targets per game during his rookie season (4.4), as Marvin Jones and Golden Tate were the primary targets for the Lions in 2017.
However, Golladay broke out in 2018 and carried that momentum into the 2019 season. He finished as a WR2 or better in 51% of his 31 active games over that span. Golladay averaged 7.5 targets, 102.4 receiving air yards, and 72.7 receiving yards per game. As a reminder, receiving air yards indicate how far a pass traveled in the air before it was caught.
Unfortunately, Golladay’s 2020 season wasn’t quite as prosperous. A hamstring and hip injury derailed his campaign before it could truly begin. As a result, Golladay only played in five games last season. He caught just 20 of 32 targets for 338 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns.
So can Golladay bounce back with the Giants?
The Giants made significant offensive upgrades
The Giants were a franchise on a mission this offseason with one goal in mind — surround Jones with more offensive weapons.
In free agency, the Giants also added speedy receiver John Ross and tight end Kyle Rudolph. But, New York didn’t stop there. The Giants selected Swiss Army knife Kadarius Toney with the No. 20 pick out of Florida.
Toney stockpiled 2,641 all-purpose yards in his collegiate career and caught 120 passes for 1,590 yards and 12 touchdowns. Toney also rushed for 580 yards and 2 more scores in his 38-game career. He can be deployed in a variety of ways.
The Giants are also anxious to see the return of running back Saquon Barkley. Barkley tore his ACL in Week 2 of the 2020 season and missed the remainder of the year. The Giants also have playmakers such as wide receivers Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, and tight end Evan Engram returning. Don’t stop reading now because you need to know how Golladay fits into all of this.
How Golladay helps Daniel Jones
One particular area Golladay can help Jones in is the short part of the field (0-15 yards). Jones’ adjusted yards per attempt (AYA) so far in his career is dreadful in this range. AYA is an advanced statistic in football that quantifies the contributions of a quarterback’s passing game by including five key passing statistics — passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions thrown, times sacked, and yards lost to being sacked.
Golladay received 207 targets in the short part of the field from 2017 to 2020. His success rate on these particular targets is impressive. He doesn’t have a reputation as a vertical threat, but Golladay has one of the highest contested catch rate percentages among wide receivers in the NFL.
Fantasy projection
One of the reasons Golladay signed with the Giants was because of their offensive scheme. His target share in New York will be similar to what he had with the Lions. Now, let’s dive into our projection for Golladay in 2021.
Golladay can be viewed as a mid-range WR2. He could see around 125 targets, 76 receptions, 1,100 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns.
Kenny Golladay’s ADP in fantasy drafts
Golladay has an ADP of 65.5 according to Fleaflicker. This trend is also similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Golladay has an ADP of 71.31 as the WR30 overall. In contrast, on Sleeper, Golladay’s ADP is 59.4 in half PPR formats.
Should you draft Golladay at this ADP in 2021?
Golladay is a solid value at his ADP and a perfect receiver to target for drafters going running back heavy in the early rounds. His contract implies that he will see a high number of targets. One receiver in his range that I’d consider drafting over him is Pittsburgh Steelers WR Diontae Johnson. Still, don’t overlook Golladay on draft day.