One of the top rookie running backs in the NFL and fantasy football, Seattle Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III projects to be an early pick. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Walker’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP?
Kenneth Walker III’s fantasy outlook for 2022
While he was not the first one selected this year, Walker is the best pure rusher in the 2022 rookie class. It all started when he transferred from Wake Forrest, who ran a scheme that could not have been worse for his skill set.
Even on his first play as a Spartan, Walker made his presence known with a 75-yard touchdown against Northwestern. Walker was No. 1 in the NCAA in yards after contact (1,169) and broken tackles (89). He would have been 19th in the nation in rushing on his after-contact yardage alone. Additionally, Walker was No. 1 in the FBS in carries of 10+ yards (46) and 15+ yards (30).
Last season, we praised Javonte Williams for his violent rushing style, where he seems mad at the world. There is a ton of that in Walker’s game. He also doesn’t put the ball on the ground. He had the longest streak in the NCAA for carries without a fumble, spanning 2019, 2020, and nine games of the 2021 season.
Rookie running backs are always highly sought-after players in fantasy, and Walker will be no exception. The only problem is we aren’t positive he will be the starter. We also don’t even know when he will play.
How the Seahawks’ depth chart impacts Kenneth Walker III’s fantasy projection for the season
Healthy for the first time since 2018, Rashaad Penny dominated in 2021. From Weeks 14-18, Penny averaged 18.4 rushes for 134.2 yards and 1.2 TDs per game. He was the RB1 in fantasy, averaging 22.0 PPR points per game. Rushing for over 135 yards in four of five contests, Penny has now posted at least 100 yards in six of the seven career games in which he received 12+ carries. That’s just a bonkers stat.
The issue is health, as he has yet to prove he can stay on the field. He’s played in just 37 games over four years. Penny is currently nursing a groin injury but was able to return to practice. However, it goes to show that it can happen anytime.
He is not the only one injured, as so is Walker. Yet, somehow we know even less about his status. After stating he had a hernia, Walker underwent surgery for … something.
“I don’t even know how to call that,” coach Pete Carroll told reporters. “I don’t know how to call what’s going to happen because it’s such an unusual circumstance that he has. He’s really tough, he’s making big progress every day, and he just feels more comfortable.”
If you know how to decipher this, you are better than I am. We also have to note this is not the Seahawks of old led by Russell Wilson, a perennial MVP candidate. Instead, Geno Smith or Drew Lock will lead Seattle after they traded Wilson to Denver. Sure, the dump-offs will be there for Penny or Walker, but if drives are not ending in the red zone, they both will struggle for touchdowns unless they break them off on their own.
Walker’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 102, Walker is coming off the boards as the RB37 in PPR formats, placing him in the ninth round in 12-team fantasy leagues. For context, Penny is currently the RB33 with an ADP of 88.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Walker is the RB36 as the 86th player overall. Penny, on the other hand, is the RB37, one spot behind him as the 87th player overall. I am a bit lower on Walker, as he is the RB38 and 96th overall player in my rankings. Meanwhile, Penny is currently my RB34 (86th).
There are two equally correct ways to approach this backfield. Either avoid it altogether or draft one and hope your coin flipped on the right side. In mocks I’ve done, I watch to see how far apart they go. Sometimes it’s over a round apart, but in other drafts, they go back-to-back as managers wait on someone to make the first move.
Penny’s injury history is working against him, but it’s not like Walker has been able to steal the job. If Penny can stay on the field for just 13 games, he can smash his ADP. But if Walker can win the job or if Penny gets hurt (more like when), he could have a surge, as we saw from Williams last year. I lean in the camp of taking a shot on this backfield, but it might be whoever falls the furthest in drafts as I let the other fantasy managers choose for me. Penny might have the higher upside, but Walker feels safer.