One of the better pass-catching running backs in the NFL and fantasy football, Philadelphia Eagles RB Kenneth Gainwell projects to be a mid-round pick once again as his 2022 fantasy outlook is clouded by what could be an annoying backfield approach. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Gainwell’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP?
Kenneth Gainwell’s fantasy outlook for 2022
The Eagles’ backfield can be maddening. Any committee approach is maddening, but they have been one of the worst. Yet, that doesn’t mean there is no value, as shown by Gainwell last season.
Despite being the No. 2 behind Miles Sanders and losing reps to Boston Scott and Jordan Howard, Gainwell had moments of absolute brilliance. In the five games where Gainwell saw over 35% of the snaps, he averaged 17.5 PPR/game on 12.4 touches, 4.2 of those coming via the air.
Gainwell topped out in Week 18, where he saw 53% of the snaps, recording 16 touches for 87 total yards with 18.7 PPR points. On the season, he rushed 68 times for 291 yards with five rushing touchdowns, adding 33 receptions on 50 targets for 253 yards and another score.
It was an impressive season for the rookie who flashed when given the opportunity. The issue is fantasy managers rarely benefited from this. Gainwell was the RB41 overall but 55th in PPR/game (7.7). Even though he was the primary third-down and passing RB, the impact of it being a committee reduced Gainwell’s weekly upside to basically nothing.
Even though it will be a committee again, Gainwell has moved up a peg, now sitting as the No. 2. Further adding to his upside is the absence of Howard, who led the team in red-zone carries. All five of Gainwell’s touchdowns came from inside the 20. Therefore, he could see more opportunities in this high-leverage area.
If I’m going to be on an Eagles RB this year, Gainwell might be the best value. With that said, it only really matters if we see him still heavily involved in the receiving aspect of their offense.
How the Eagles’ depth chart impacts Kenneth Gainwell’s fantasy projection for the season
As the depth chart would suggest, this is expected to be Sanders’ show in 2022. Entering the final year of his rookie contract, there is no incentive not to utilize him as much as possible.
If anyone in the NFL is also due for positive TD regression — a phrase I hate — it’s Sanders. To have 163 touches with zero TDs is both remarkable and puzzling. Sanders is too talented, as is this Eagles offense, to let this happen again. Remember, Gainwell had five in just 101 touches.
However, this backfield is not just Sanders or Gainwell. While Howard is no longer with the team, Scott will play a role in 2022. Rushing just 87 times in 16 games last season, Scott carried the ball for 373 yards and seven touchdowns, further adding to the bonkers year Sanders had. He also had 13 receptions on 16 targets for 83 yards.
Scott capitalized in games where Sanders missed due to injury. In games where both Scott and Sanders played (five), Scott averaged 8.3 PPR points, eight rushes, 29 yards, and 0.6 TDs. Without Sanders (four), Scott averaged 12 rushes, 57 yards, one touchdown, and 14.78 PPR.
Odds are we don’t see quite the rushing volume we did toward the end of last year when the Eagles led the NFL in rushing after Week 8 at 68%. The acquisition of A.J. Brown suggests the Eagles want to move more balanced in their approach, if not slightly passing forward, allowing Jalen Hurts to lead the offense. While that does make the rushing split even harder to nail down, the player who benefits the most is Gainwell as the primary passing back.
Gainwell’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 149, Gainwell is coming off the boards as the RB47 in PPR formats at the moment, placing him in the 13th round in 12-team fantasy leagues. For comparison, Sanders is the RB27 (74) and Scott is the RB70 (262).
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Gainwell is the RB46 as the 117th-ranked player, whereas Sanders is the RB30 (64th). While PFN’s rankings are a consensus, I am a bit higher with Gainwell as the RB43 and 114th overall player in my rankings. Be sure to check back, as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
I don’t believe it is out of the realm of outcomes where Gainwell is the more valuable and reliably RB for fantasy purposes in 2022. The issue is trusting this backfield as anything more than a Flex option. Odds are there will be spike weeks, and the next, someone else gets the bulk of the work, and touchdowns being the deciding factor.
If I do bet on anyone in the draft, at cost, I’ll likely end up with Gainwell more than Sanders. Although of the trio, Sanders has the highest ceiling. Overall, if I want part of the Eagles’ offense, I want the passing game with Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith, Brown, or Hurts. However, Gainwell and Sanders are both on the radar at the right value.