As the NFL season approaches, fantasy football is upon us. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are New Orleans Saints RB Kendre Miller’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Kendre Miller’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
In the past 25 years, the Saints have made plenty of splashes when drafting running backs. It started with Ricky Williams with the No. 5 overall pick in 1999. Two years later, they picked Deuce McAllister at No. 23. Reggie Bush went No. 2 in 2006, while Mark Ingram went No. 28 in 2011.
In fact, all six of New Orleans’ top career rushers (in terms of attempts and yards) were first-round selections.
Then Alvin Kamara came long — a third-rounder taken with the 67th overall pick. In hindsight, it was one of the biggest RB draft steals in decades. And from a fantasy perspective, few RBs in the last quarter-century have been consistently elite like he has, beginning with an RB3 performance as a rookie, despite earning only 120 carries.
This is the context surrounding the Saints’ selection of Kendre Miller in the third round (pick No. 71) of this year’s draft. It marked only their second RB pick since they secured Kamara in 2017 — and the first since they landed another bargain (Boston Scott) in the sixth round in 2018.
So Miller shouldn’t be viewed as a throwaway pick or even as a player who’ll ride the pine all season. The Saints beefed up their offense this offseason in the hopes of making a playoff run. And there are plenty of reasons to believe Miller will be an active part of it.
Kamara was facing legal questions going into the NFL Draft that would most likely lead to a suspension. This surely factored into this franchise’s draft thinking. They needed an NFL-ready running back, just in case.
Meanwhile, the team added Jamaal Williams — a fantasy hero last year after rushing for a whopping 17 scores. But Williams has never been an efficient runner, and his dramatic decline in the passing game last year could signal a usage shift with his new club.
Also, coming off a career-high 274-touch campaign — 95 more than his previous high — we might wonder if, at 28 years old, he’s headed toward a regression that goes beyond mere usage.
The assumption might be that Williams will continue his torrid touchdown pace with plenty of goal-line looks. And yes, that might happen. But Miller has the frame to be used near the end zone, too. The rookie is also a proven asset in the passing game.
This means the Saints have three bell-cow-caliber running backs. Two are aging, with one facing a suspension and the other unable to consistently move the chains on his own.
Miller is, in essence, his own wild card in fantasy. If he shows well early, there’s a path for him to garner a few touches per game and to even take over the 1A role if Kamara has to sit.
The rookie appears to be in a bad landing spot because it’s currently crowded. But I would argue it’s actually a favorable landing spot for a team that, for divergent reasons, might not be able to count on their two veterans to finish the season.
Should You Draft Kendre Miller This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Miller with an ADP of RB47. Our PFN Consensus Rankings have him at RB49. It’s a relatively bullish projection, despite what I wrote above, as it assumes he will earn at least a couple of starts and/or contribute more than just a few touches per week.
I like Miller at that spot but don’t love him, preferring to see his value dip due to the injury question marks before reaching for him. Miller is currently dealing with a knee sprain that he suffered in week one of the preseason but is expected to be fine for week one.
That said, if you draft Kamara, then selecting Williams and/or Miller is essential. Of those two secondary options, I prefer the unknowns surrounding Miller. Williams has the experience and (presumably) touchdown edge.
But as a true wild card, Miller could bring more pop, in the belief that Williams cannot possibly come close to matching last year’s breakout.