New Orleans Saints RB Kendre Miller was unable to carve out a meaningful role between Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams’ presence last season. With both around for another year, will 2024 be more of the same for Miller, or should fantasy football managers expect a big step forward?
Kendre MIller’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
No one should be kicking themselves over taking a shot on Miller last season. He was a Day 2 pick with two old running backs as competition. There was absolutely a chance he could’ve taken over the lead role by the second half of the season. It just didn’t work out.
Miller’s season started about as bad as it could with him missing the first two games of the season due to injury. Upon his return, he only had a small role before succumbing to injury once again following Week 9.
Unfortunately, there’s not much available to read into from Miller’s 2023 performance. He appeared in eight games and carried the ball a mere 41 times for 156 yards.
Entering his second season, Miller is just 22 years old. In his final season at TCU, he ran the ball 224 times for 1,399 yards. This a back capable of so much more than he was given a chance to show as a rookie. The question is whether he will get that chance.
The Saints’ backfield looks exactly as it did last year. Kamara is the lead back, and Williams is still around as a backup. The difference this year is that no one should be fading Miller because of Williams.
If you don’t think Miller can completely overtake a 29-year-old plodder who averaged 2.9 yards per carry on 106 attempts last season, then you don’t believe Miller can play in the NFL. The Saints want Miller to be that thunder to Kamara’s lightning, and we should fully expect him to have that role. The next question is, what will Miller do with it?
The Saints didn’t exactly have the greatest offensive line last season, giving Kamara just 1.6 yards before contact. Williams was even less fortunate, averaging 0.9. To be fair, it’s possible that’s more due to his lack of explosiveness, resulting in holes closing up before he can get to them.
Nevertheless, Miller will have his work cut out for him in an offense that is still likely to lean pass-heavy, a move that will favor Kamara over the sophomore. Miller was never much of a pass catcher in college, with his highest season target share only being 5.1%.
There is really only one path to Miller having fantasy value this season outside of Kamara either getting hurt or being completely done, which, at least for his receiving role, is unlikely. Miller needs the primary goal-line role.
Since Mark Ingram left, the Saints have allowed Kamara to be the goal-line back. Now 29 years old, New Orleans would prefer Miller to emerge. Otherwise, we’re looking at the dreaded two-down back who doesn’t catch passes and doesn’t get goal-line carries. That is never someone we want in fantasy.
The good news is we don’t have to pay much to find out if Miller can make a Year 2 leap. He’s going off the board as the RB52, No. 194 overall.
I won’t fault anyone for taking a shot on an unknown young player. Miller is certainly preferable to more established veterans with capped ceilings. Nevertheless, I’m not overly optimistic he can be more than a serviceable RB3, and I want more upside than that.
Miller is currently my RB62. I’m not philosophically opposed to drafting him, but he’s not a priority for me this season.
