New Orleans Saints running back Kendre Miller received Day 2 draft capital and is poised to be this team’s running back of the future. But with Alvin Kamara still on the team and Jamaal Williams added in free agency, is Miller’s path to fantasy relevance blocked? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
Behind in research? Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator, and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
Kendre Miller’s Fantasy Outlook
Note: Miller sprained his knee in the Saints’ first preseason game. It was the same knee that gave him trouble early in training camp. Below is my outlook on Miller, assuming he’s ready to go relatively early in the season. If the injury ends up costing him a chunk of the season, he should not be drafted.
There’s a lot to like about Miller’s prospect profile. He’s an early declare, entering the NFL at just 21 years old. His college production improved each of his three years at TCU, topping out at 224 carries for 1,399 yards and 17 touchdowns in his junior season.
Miller can definitely play at the NFL level. However, he projects as mostly a two-down grinder, as evidenced by his 29 receptions over his 33 college games. Miller’s 5.1% target share last season was the highest in any of his three years.
At 215 pounds, Miller does have the size to handle a full NFL workload. It would be a surprise if he wasn’t the Saints’ primary runner and goal-line back at some point within the first two years of his career. The question fantasy managers need to answer is whether that can happen this year.
The Saints’ backfield situation is a bit unclear heading into the season. Kamara remains the clear lead back, but he showed serious signs of decline last year and is missing the first three games due to suspension.
That could be just what Miller needs to carve out a meaningful role and prove to coaches they can’t take him off the field. But even if Kamara returns to his usual role, his diminished on-field ability could also result in more touches for the rookie.
Then, there’s the man who led the NFL in rushing touchdowns last season. Williams comes over from Detroit as a replacement-level runner but a beloved locker-room guy who has always been reliable on the field.
Like Miller, Williams does not contribute in the passing game. Despite Kamara’s concerns, Miller’s role in the offense should look a lot like what Williams is slated for to start the season.
The good news here is Miller projects to be a much better runner than Williams. We have no idea how the Saints will handle the veteran deference factor, but there’s definitely a path to Miller simply outplaying Williams for the grinder role.
This Saints’ offense has always used two running backs and can certainly support fantasy-relevant roles for both Kamara and Miller. Even with a 52% neutral-game-script-pass rate, what the offense cannot do is give us three backs that matter.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Miller at His ADP?
With the upgrade from Andy Dalton to Derek Carr at quarterback, the Saints should have a much-improved offense this season. There’s upside here for whoever their lead back is.
Fantasy managers are wise to this fact, as evidenced by Miller’s RB50 ADP, No. 160 overall. That’s pretty high for a guy who will open the season third on the depth chart.
Of course, fantasy football is all about upside. Fantasy managers know what the ceiling outcome looks like. Miller’s ADP, while pricey given his status to open the season, is still an RB5.
My projections for Miller don’t really matter here, as the median outcome in which all three backs stay healthy and effective is not going to result in Miller mattering. If you’re drafting Miller, you’re hoping he ends up as a 10-12-carries-per-game guy.
I have Miller ranked as my RB48, right in line with consensus. He definitely has more upside than most of the backs going around him, as he has multiple paths to find more playing time.
MORE: 2023 Fantasy Player Projections
With that said, his ceiling is capped by the fact that he doesn’t catch passes. Even if Miller ends up in a prominent role, unless this offense just scores a ton of touchdowns, he will have a hard time even reaching RB2 value.
There’s definitely upward mobility here, and Miller will probably have his weeks, but his ceiling likely looks like 2022 Tyler Allgeier. Useful? Yes. League-winning? Probably not.
That doesn’t mean you can’t take a shot on Miller, as there is upside. He’s just not necessarily someone with game-breaking upside that should be a priority. If he’s the top RB available, go for it. If not, don’t fret about missing out.