Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore joins a Philadelphia Eagles team that can’t label the 2023 season as anything but a disappointment, even after a red-hot start. They lost five of six games to end the regular season and were outclassed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their lone playoff game.
What is the fantasy football impact of Moore joining the Eagles’ offensive staff? Is this a step in the right direction?
Kellen Moore’s Offensive Background
The offense wasn’t the primary issue (seventh in points and eighth in yards), but in this era of scoring, adding consistency on that side of the ball is never a bad idea. That’s what the City of Brotherly Love is hoping to have secured in Moore given his résumé.
Dallas Cowboys Offensive Coordinator (2019-22)
- Points: 4th
- Pass EPA: 9th
- Rush EPA: 10th
- Pass Attempts: 19th
- aDOT: 13th
QB Dak Prescott was good in his first three seasons, but his spot in the NFL hierarchy took off once he joined forces with Moore, a former Boise State quarterback, who averaged 276.7 passing yards and 2.7 passing scores during his college career.
Los Angeles Chargers OC (2023)
- Points: 21st
- Pass EPA: 16th
- Rush EPA: 29th
- Pass Attempts: 3rd
- aDOT: 21st
On the surface, those numbers seem underwhelming, but look a little closer.
This is a quarterback-driven league, and in the 14 weeks with his starter under center, Moore guided this team to the eighth-best passing EPA. Shrink the sample to the first 11 weeks, and they were second best.
Not too shabby for an offense that lost its field-stretching receiver in September and was committed to a declining RB who also missed time. It’s fair to be optimistic about Moore, especially with the talented cast of characters he’ll be calling plays for. But how much does this hire impact those pieces individually?
Fantasy Impact on Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts is a Tier 1 quarterback for me in 2024, and that wasn’t going to change due to the coordinator hire. Hurts’ versatility and surrounding talent are simply a lethal combination, not to mention the effectiveness of the “Brotherly Shove.”
With Kellen Moore landing in Philadelphia as the offensive coordinator, is Jalen Hurts still a top-5 QB in 2024? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/BHWWJfV7zg
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) January 29, 2024
With Moore, little changes for Hurts. He remains the highest floor QB in our game, and given the creativity that is likely to develop in the passing game, his ceiling is also as high as anyone’s.
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Moore is an aggressive play-caller, and it will be fun to see him with the surplus of weapons in Philadelphia. Last season, Hurts regressed when attempting to stretch the field, especially on deep passes.
- Passer Rating: Down 23.6%
- Yards per attempt: Down 18.9%
If Moore’s scheming can help correct this regression, a truly special fantasy season is not out of the question.
Fantasy Impact on A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith
A.J. Brown has been with the Eagles for two seasons, and in both of those campaigns, he and DeVonta Smith combined for at least …
- 180 catches
- 2,500 receiving yards
- 14 touchdowns
The annual numbers haven’t been an issue in the least, but the ability for them to reach expectations every week next to one another was a bit of a struggle.
- Weeks 3-9: Brown was WR1 at 24.0 ppg (Smith: WR28)
- Weeks 9-13: Smith was WR8 at 18.0 ppg (Brown: WR24)
Could that level out under Moore in 2024? It’s certainly possible. In 2019 and 2020, he provided multiple weekly fantasy options at the receiver position, and the returns were great.
2019, games with 7+ targets
- Amari Cooper: 10
- Michael Gallup: 10
2020, games with 7+ targets
- Amari Cooper: 10
- CeeDee Lamb: 9
Moore has done right by fantasy managers for the most part. I expect that to again be the case in 2023.
Do these two receivers potentially lose a little ceiling for stability? It’s possible, but I would view that as a net gain given the weekly nature of our game (not ideal for people playing Best Ball).
Fantasy Impact on Dallas Goedert
TE Dallas Goedert’s best days are likely behind him, but that doesn’t mean he can’t remain productive. In 2020-22, Dalton Schultz ranked top five at the position in routes, catches, and touchdowns.
His aDOT (average depth of target) in those seasons was 10th-lowest among qualified tight ends, which could well be the case for a vteran like Goedert. However, it likely increases his catch rate and, thus, his fantasy floor.
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Fragility is the concern with Goedert — multiple missed games in four straight seasons — and while I like Moore, I’m not sure he has some sort of reverse aging potion that he will be bringing with him to Philadelphia.
That said, a reasonable floor isn’t easy to find outside of the first 5-6 rounds of fantasy drafts, and the veteran should offer that.
Fantasy Impact on the Run Game
I could tell you that Moore has had a lead-back average of over 16.4 touches in every season he spent at Dallas and Los Angeles, but both of those situations came with relative clarity at the position.
RB D’Andre Swift enters this offseason as an unrestricted free agent, which could leave us with a confusing committee. If Swift returns and is penciled into the bell-cow role, I’d feel good about labeling him as a weekly starter with top-10 upside.
I prefer Swift to stay in Philadelphia, but realistically, I’m going to be in favor of drafting whoever the lead back is in this offense due to my confidence in Moore putting this unit in position to score frequent touchdowns.