One of the top wide receivers in the NFL and fantasy football, Los Angeles Chargers WR Keenan Allen projects to be an early pick once again as his 2022 fantasy outlook rivals the top players in the game. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Allen’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Keenan Allen’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Being great is one thing. Maintaining success at the highest level is something different. That is what Allen has done virtually his entire career. He has finished as the WR14 or better every year since 2017. Posting 16.9 PPR points/game, Allen’s 54% WR2+ weekly average is one of the highest in the NFL. He is a consistent staple of the Chargers’ offense.
He is a volume player, recording 135+ targets and 6+ touchdowns in five straight years, with four seasons of 100 or more receptions and at least 1,100 receiving yards. In those campaigns, Allen has recorded 26% of the team targets and 47% of the WR targets.
Allen is entering his age-30 season, which places him on the wrong side of the age/production debate. With that said, I don’t foresee Allen tapering off anytime soon. The only debate is whether or not Allen can hold off Mike Williams as the Chargers’ WR1.
The Chargers are expected to be a juggernaut on offense in 2022. If you ask me, they might just very well be the favorite to win the AFC West. Given the moves made this offseason, that is no easy feat. To do so, Justin Herbert will need to come out of the gates hot with Allen squarely in his sights. I feel you can pencil in Allen for a 90-1,000-8 receiving line. He’s as close to a surefire WR1 as you can find in fantasy football for 2022.
How the Chargers’ depth chart impacts Keenan Allen’s fantasy projection for the season
The Chargers were active in the offseason. They had to be to keep up with the rest of the division. The key signings came on the defensive side, as trying to stop the AFC West’s offenses will be arduous, to say the least.
Joining Joey Bosa up front is former All-Pro Khalil Mack, Sebastian Joseph-Day, and Austin Johnson. The moves didn’t stop there as the top-ranked CB of free agency, J.C. Jackson, joins Asante Samuel, Derwin James, and Nasir Adderley in the secondary.
Offensively, the 2022 Chargers will closely resemble the 2021 version. That’s a good thing as they have one of the best teams in the NFL. Herbert is already a star as he heads into Year 3. Austin Ekeler is a cheat code and is joined by the potential new backup, Isaiah Spiller. Additionally, LA beefed up the offensive line, selecting G Zion Johnson with the No. 17 overall pick.
Flanking Allen at receiver is the same core group of players as the Chargers elected not to bring in anyone new. Both Jaylen Guyton and Josh Palmer have been battling for the No. 3 spot, but it appears Palmer has walked away fairly comfortably in this race. He’s a name to keep in mind for the later rounds.
It’s easy to remember Williams dropping off last year after one of the hottest starts in the league. However, even with the dip, Williams’ stats are among elite company. Williams was 15th in targets (129), recording 77 receptions for 1,146 yards and nine touchdowns. His 1,497 air yards were 13th among receivers, as Williams posted a 15.4 average depth of target (aDOT).
Volume-wise, Allen is likely to lead the target share. Yet, I wouldn’t be surprised if Williams rivals him in fantasy points as a potential WR1 come season’s end.
Allen’s ADP for 2022
If there was ever a safety blanket pick to make, it’s Allen. You know what you’re getting back, and that’s a comforting feeling. Currently, with an ADP of 27 as the season drafts closer, Allen is the WR10 coming off the board in PPR formats. For comparison, Williams is the WR19 with an ADP of 50.
Allen’s ADP falls right in line with PFN’s 2022 fantasy football rankings. In our consensus, he is the WR9 and 27th overall player, placing him as an early third-round pick. As for me, Allen does come in a bit lower as the WR14, but that has more to do with me being higher on other players. Courtland Sutton and Michael Pittman Jr. cracked my top 10, with A.J. Brown, Mike Evans, and Tee Higgins sitting just above Allen.
If you want exposure to the Chargers’ passing attack, Allen is a surefire bet to make as someone who should record 100 receptions as has become almost standard. If you want to play the riskier game and shoot for more upside, Williams would be the option, but there is a risk someone jumps on him before you have a shot.
I have zero issues with Allen anywhere in the third round for fantasy drafts, especially in PPR formats. Allen provides as high of a floor as you could want, allowing for riskier, more boom-or-bust upside options later in the mid-rounds.