One of the NFL’s best receivers, Los Angeles Chargers WR Keenan Allen continuously comes in as one of the top-scoring WRs in dynasty fantasy football. There is little reason to expect this will change in 2022. How should dynasty managers value Allen as he begins his age-30 season?
Keenan Allen’s dynasty profile for 2022
Are you a fan of consistency? What about route-running savants who specialize in mid-phase separation? Perhaps a dash of age-adjusted value and a side helping of over a 25% target share from an elite quarterback? If you answered “yes,” Allen is still your cup of tea.
All Allen has done is produce throughout his career, finishing as the WR14 or better every year since 2017. Posting 16.9 PPR points/game, Allen’s 54% WR2+ weekly average is one of the highest in the NFL. He is a consistent staple of the Chargers’ offense.
Allen has 135+ targets and 6+ touchdowns in five straight years, with four seasons of 100 or more receptions and at least 1,100 receiving yards. In those campaigns, Allen has recorded 26% of the team targets and 47% of the WR targets for the Chargers.
Allen enters a pivotal year in 2022
Allen is entering his age-30 season. That’s a pivotal moment when it comes to dynasty, as production usually begins to drop off at this point. This is where age-adjusted value comes into play for dynasty. Allen would be right on the top-12 cusp among wide receivers in a normal redraft league. As noted, his consistency is too great.
But in dynasty, where age is a factor given the multi-year style of the format, Allen falls closer to the mid-20s to 30 range at his position. While his production has been excellent, how many years can he keep this up?
If you have a win-now dynasty team, Allen is the type of player who should be on your roster. Managers going all-in for a title in a one-year window will get the most value out of Allen. If you’re rebuilding, try to move on from Allen for either a high pick or someone like Elijah Moore.
Fantasy projection for Allen
This feels a bit straightforward, honestly. At this point, we know who Allen and the Chargers are. Los Angeles has one of the most well-rounded rosters in the NFL. They added CB help with J.C. Jackson and paired Khalil Mack with Joey Bosa. Add in Asante Samuel Jr., Kenneth Murray, and Derwin James, and you have a defense that can regularly get the ball back into their offense’s hands.
The Chargers will be a juggernaut if everything clicks. It’s Year 2 under head coach Brandon Staley, so the kinks should be worked out. Los Angeles was one of the pass-happiest teams in the NFL last year at 63%. I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
Justin Herbert is entering his third season as a pro and is looking to make his case as a top-three QB, both in the NFL and in fantasy. Throw in a solid OL with only a couple of questions on the right side and a phenomenal RB in Austin Ekeler, and you end up with an offense that is difficult to stop.
You know what you are getting with Allen
In 2021, Mike Williams started the season looking like the top receiver. That didn’t last beyond five games, as his inconsistency popped back up. However, he is still one of the best No. 2 options in the NFL as a big play waiting to happen. Allen, on the other hand, is the Chargers’ chain mover. He is the volume target. He makes up for what he doesn’t get after the catch with reliable hands and separation skills, which give him remarkable efficiency per target.
Much like Mike Evans (who is locked in for 1,000 yards every year), Allen is a virtual shoo-in for 130 targets, 100 receptions, 1,000 yards, and 6 touchdowns. After all, five straight years tend to make a pattern. I’m not going to rock the boat on either side when it comes to Allen’s projection — you know what you’re getting. That is a rare comfort in a game that brings so much weekly instability.