Every once in a while, a trade comes out of nowhere. That’s what happened late Thursday night when the Los Angeles Chargers traded their WR1 of the past decade, Keenan Allen, to the Chicago Bears. Suddenly loaded with pass-catching talent, will there be enough targets to go around for Allen, DJ Moore, D’Andre Swift, and Cole Kmet to thrive as fantasy football assets?
What Is the Fantasy Impact of Keenan Allen Being Traded to the Chicago Bears?
The NFL decided to throw some very impactful news at us on a wonderful Thursday night. Jay Glazer reported the Chargers approached Allen about taking a pay cut. After Allen declined, they negotiated a trade with the Bears in exchange for the Bears’ earlier fourth-round pick.
Allen is entering his 12th season in the league. Outside of the times when he was injured, he’s been a fantasy factor in all of them. In fact, last season was the best of Allen’s career.
Prior to 2023, Allen had never averaged 20 fantasy points per game. Last season, he got to 21.5. Allen caught 108 passes for 1,243 yards and seven touchdowns in just 13 games.
Even at 32 years old, Allen sure looks like he has plenty left in the tank. Since he doesn’t rely on athleticism, his game was always going to age well. He’s the type of guy I’m willing to ride until the wheels fall off. When he shows signs of decline, then we can abandon him. So far, I haven’t seen it.
For the past two years, the Bears have been one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL. They ran the ball 50% of the time in a neutral game script last season. Of course, a lot of that had to do with Justin Fields.
Currently, Fields is still on the Bears. However, it’s no secret the Bears are expected to trade Fields and select Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick.
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It’s exceedingly rare that a rookie QB is able to support two top-36 fantasy receivers. In fact, C.J. Stroud was the first one to ever do it last season.
With that said, a lot of the “rookie QBs struggle to support WRs” narrative has to do with the talent of the players, both quarterback and receivers. We know Allen and Moore are very good at football. We believe Williams is the best prospect since Andrew Luck. If those things end up being true, Williams should be able to sustain the fantasy values of both Allen and Moore.
Allen and Moore Are Unlikely To Both Be WR1s
It’s one thing for Williams to support two top-24 receivers, which is definitely possible. But two top-12 receivers, as Allen and Moore both were last season? That’s not happening.
Moore saw a 28.9% target share last year. Allen was at 32%. While I do expect these two to combine for more than half the team’s targets, getting over 60% is asking a lot. That’s especially so, considering they signed one of the best receiving backs in Swift and still have Kmet, who saw a 19.3% target share last season.
Of course, Kmet and Swift aren’t exactly going to get targets at the expense of Allen and Moore. Rather, Williams isn’t going to throw the ball 650 times. He may not even get to 600. Asking him to support three fantasy-relevant pass catchers, plus a running back who relies on receiving, is a lot.
Oftentimes, it’s easy to tell who will be the WR1 and who will be the WR2. However, this really feels like a 1a/1b situation. Both Moore and Allen are worthy of being the primary target. With no obvious choice, the answer is likely going to vary from week to week, depending on who the opposing team decides to prioritize.
Neither Moore nor Allen are historically deep threats, but Moore is far more likely to see deep targets than Allen. Preliminarily, Moore is the one I would prefer in fantasy.
Caleb Williams Could Be an Instant QB1 in Fantasy
I’m not suggesting Williams will be as good as Stroud was last season. But he’s been gifted a far better situation than Stroud had. Stroud turned Nico Collins and Tank Dell into a WR1 and WR2. Moore and Allen are already there. Williams could maybe be 75% as good as Stroud and still finish inside the top 12.
The quarterback situation is pretty good for fantasy entering this season. It’s going to be hard to get Williams inside the top 12, making him an appealing late-round option for fantasy managers who don’t take an elite QB.
The Chargers Are Going To Run the Ball … a Lot
Jim Harbaugh has a history of orchestrating offenses that run the ball a ton. So far, the Chargers have released Mike Williams and traded Allen. Their biggest offensive signing has been a running back. You do the math.
Gus Edwards may not be the most dynamic player, but he’s capable of handling a heavy workload. Justin Herbert may not be as appealing of a fantasy option due to reduced volume, but from a real-life perspective, he can command an efficient offense. They are going to score points.
The biggest question is, who will be catching passes? My guess is Malik Nabers. The Chargers absolutely must draft a wide receiver. If Nabers is there, they should do it in the first round. There’s no way they can go into Week 1 with Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston as their top two options.
I’m sure there will be fantasy managers out there who think the departure of Allen and Williams opens the door for Johnston. Please remember this exact scenario played out last season, and Johnston posted receiving totals of 23, 29, 29, and 17. Regardless of what the Chargers do at wide receiver, I won’t be ranking Johnston inside the top 60 wide receivers.
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