Chicago Bears WR Keenan Allen is getting up there in age, but he’s still one of the better receivers in the NFL. Coming off the best season of his career, is Allen a value in 2024 Best Ball drafts? How should fantasy football managers approach the aging veteran?
Keenan Allen’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
It’s one thing for an older receiver to have a better-than-expected season — it’s another for him to have the best year of his career at age 31. That’s exactly what Allen did in 2023.
Heading into last season, there were concerns about Allen declining. The Chargers had extended Mike Williams, who could potentially have taken over as the WR1. Los Angeles also spent a first-round pick on WR Quentin Johnston. Combine that with Allen’s hamstring problems in 2022, and the veteran wasn’t the safest of picks.
At the same time, Allen hadn’t exactly shown any signs of decline. Since 2017, Allen averaged at least 16.1 fantasy points per game each year, while playing in no fewer than 14 games.
The truth is that Allen was never actually injury-prone. He lacerated a kidney in 2015 and tore his ACL in 2016. Neither of those injuries yielded recurring problems.
Outside of eight games in 2015, though, Allen has also never been a game-breaking receiver. He’s been solid and reliable, but the 20 points-per-game upside wasn’t there.
Allen averaged between 16.1 and 17.8 fantasy points per game for six straight years ahead of last season. That’s what made his 2023 performance all the more impressive.
Last year, Allen averaged 21.5 fantasy ppg, a career-high. He did so by commanding an elite 32% target share and absorbing targets on 30% of his routes run, both third in the league.
Allen didn’t suddenly become this downfield threat, as he still only averaged 8.3 yards per target. He was just the same elite reliable underneath guy he’s always been.
A big part of why Allen is no longer on the Chargers is his own feelings about his 2023 season. The Chargers asked Allen to take a pay cut to remain in LA. Well aware of the fact that he was just coming off his best season, Allen declined for that exact reason (among others, I’m sure).
MORE: Dynasty Rookie Rankings 2024
NFL players are historically overly optimistic about their ability to continue producing at a high level as they age. Yet, we’ve seen older, former elite players, sign for more reasonable amounts based on their skill level at the time, as opposed to how they performed at their peak.
Allen doesn’t strike me as the type of player who would pretend he’s still at the top of his game when he very clearly isn’t. He believes he’s still worth top-receiver money because he probably is.
Should You Draft Allen in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
Allen enters the 2024 season in an entirely new environment for the first time in his career. He’s always been his team’s top option in the passing game. Now, he will share that role with DJ Moore.
While Allen is 32 years old, he has the type of skill set that should age well. He’s the type of player I’m willing to believe in until he gives us a reason not to, and we haven’t yet seen a reason to doubt him.
Detractors may point to Allen’s games played over the past two years as age-related concerns. However, the 2022 hamstring issues proved to not be a problem in 2023. And although Allen missed four games in 2024, they were the final four.
He was listed on the injury report each week with a mysterious heel issue. But let’s call a spade a spade here — Allen was shut down because there was no longer a reason for him to be out there. If the Chargers were in playoff contention, I believe he would’ve played.
The primary concerns regarding Allen’s 2024 fantasy value would be related to his situation. With the Bears trading Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers, that all but guarantees they will be selecting USC QB Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick.
We’re now asking a rookie QB to step in and immediately sustain the fantasy values of two wide receivers who finished inside the top 12 last season. The only rookie signal-caller in NFL history to do anything close to that was C.J. Stroud last season, with Nico Collins and Tank Dell both finishing as top-18 receivers in fantasy points per game.
Allen’s game is not explosive plays. He needs volume. The Bears are obviously going to throw the ball more with Williams than they did with Fields. But are they going to pass as much as the Chargers have with Justin Herbert? Almost certainly not.
Allen saw a 32% target share last season playing with an established good quarterback on a team that played at the second-fastest pace in the league and had a 61% neutral game script pass rate.
Moore, Cole Kmet, and D’Andre Swift are going to command more looks than Mike Williams (who missed almost the entire season anyway), Joshua Palmer, and Austin Ekeler. It will be difficult to project Allen for more than a 25-27% target share. And we’ve already established that target share will be of a smaller overall pie than he’s accustomed to.
Allen is not without concerns. However, his price is incredibly reasonable. He was still the overall WR8 last season.
While we can infer he’s not going to come close to that level this year, he’s currently going outside the top 24 wide receivers. That lowers the bar immensely. If Allen’s price remains that low even after the Bears officially draft Williams, I’ll be willing to take the chance.
KEEP READING: 2024 Best Ball Rankings