As fantasy football managers move into the playoffs in Week 15, there are plenty of key start/sit decisions that need to be made! In the case of the Baltimore Ravens‘ backfield, should you be looking to start Keaton Mitchell or Gus Edwards in a must-win week?
Should You Start Keaton Mitchell or Gus Edwards This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, our Consensus Rankings say Mitchell is the player to start. His projected 8.7 points include 52 rushing yards, one reception, and seven receiving yards. That projected stat line barely outperforms Edwards’ projected 7.3 points.
My ranking for these two running backs aligns with the consensus. Mitchell’s big-play capability, along with his versatility, give him a slight edge over Edwards, who has a nose for the end zone.
Fantasy Outlook for Mitchell This Week
Since getting a chance to see the field back in Week 9, Mitchell has put up some solid numbers in limited touches.
Last week, for example, Mitchell only carried the ball nine times, but he still managed to average six yards per carry, finishing with 54 yards, and one reception for eight yards.
Mitchell hasn’t averaged less than four yards per carry in any of his last five games. And his 8.5 yards per carry average is second-highest in the league, behind only Miami Dolphins RB De’Von Achane (9.2).
In all, Mitchell has only 45 touches on the season. However, he averages nearly nine yards every time he touches the ball (8.9).
Now, it’s a tough defense the Ravens will be facing Sunday night in the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville is No. 4. in stopping the run (92.2 rush YPG allowed), and they are top 10 in the fewest big runs allowed — 20 or more yards — with 38 (eighth-fewest).
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In addition, Mitchell hasn’t found the end zone in three straight games, while his teammate Edwards has 10 touchdown runs this season.
Yet, Mitchell is still the guy to use. He hasn’t been slowed down yet, and it’s only a matter of time until he gets some more touches, which will only produce better results.
Fantasy Outlook for Edwards This Week
From mid-September to mid-November, it appeared Edwards was the running back of the future for Baltimore. He averaged over four yards per carry, got over 12 carries per game, and scored 10 touchdowns in that 10-game span.
But now, over his last two games, he has hardly seen the ball.
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Just 14 carries over his last two games for a combined total of 41 rushing yards have slowed his momentum. Add in one reception, and that’s 15 touches in Edwards’ last two games … with no scores.
Edwards is still averaging over four yards per carry for the season (4.1), which is a positive. The Ravens’ success when he gets the ball is interesting, too.
Baltimore is 5-1 this season when Edwards has 50 or more rush yards, and 5-1 when Edwards has 12 or more carries. They are an elite team that has trusted him to help close out games.
The not-so-hidden factor that should not be overlooked is Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson. Not only is he the team’s leading rusher with 644 yards, but he’s also their most frequent rusher (9.5). That certainly takes carries away from the back that isn’t No. 1 on the depth chart.
The PFN Optimizer projects Pierce to finish with 31 rushing yards, one reception, and eight receiving yards.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!