Despite all their success this season, is it possible the Baltimore Ravens could be making a change at the running back position? While Gus Edwards might still be the starter, Week 12 may have been an indication that the rookie may be in line to handle more carries. Let’s break down these two backs for fantasy football purposes before Week 14.
Should You Start Keaton Mitchell or Gus Edwards This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, our Consensus Rankings say that Edwards is the player to start. His projected 9.3 points include 66 rushing yards but zero receptions. That projected stat line narrowly outperforms the consensus projection for Mitchell (7.7 points).
However, when you isolate my rankings, I see Mitchell outperforming Edwards, as Mitchell continues to get more time on the field, he is becoming more productive, both as a runner and a receiver out of the backfield.
Fantasy Outlook for Mitchell This Week
Over the Ravens’ final four games before the bye week, the percentage of offensive snaps Mitchell was on the field for increased from 18% to 24% to 36% to 46%.
And although the number of carries for Mitchell was few during this stretch — 7.3 per game on average — he was still extremely productive, averaging 67.3 rush yards per game and 9.3 yards per carry.
While Mitchell only had one more carry than Edwards in Week 12 — nine to eight — Mitchell was on the field for 33 snaps, while Edwards, seemingly healthy, was on the field for only 19 offensive snaps.
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Mitchell also appears to have the added element of catching the ball out of the backfield, something that Edwards (10 receptions all season) hasn’t demonstrated as much. Three games ago, Mitchell had one reception for 32 yards, and back in Week 12, he caught two passes for 25 yards.
So even though they may share duties and carries in the backfield, Mitchell appears to be the guy with the greatest potential to put up fantasy numbers.
The PFN Start/Sit Optimizer projects Mitchell to finish with 46 yards with one reception for six yards.
Fantasy Outlook for Edwards This Week
For all the attention given to Mitchell lately, it’s still important to note that it is Edwards that leads the team in rushing yards (590) and rushing touchdowns (10), and he is still averaging over four yards a carry for the season (4.2).
But in two of the Ravens’ last three games, Edwards has looked ordinary, gaining just 24 yards on 11 carries against the Cleveland Browns in Week 10 and finishing with 26 yards on only eight carries in last week’s game against the Los Angeles Chargers.
A Week 14 game against the Los Angeles Rams may not exactly be the time to get Edwards back on track. Although the Rams rank in the middle of the pack against the run — 16th in rush YPG allowed at 111.1 — over their last three games they are allowing just 76 yards per game on the ground and less than four yards a carry (3.9).
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