Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating or most rewarding part of fantasy football. Here to help you make those decisions are our start ’em and sit ’em picks. Lineup decisions are crucial as fantasy managers make that playoff push. Let’s take a look at our early Week 11 start/sit plays.
Start ‘Em Picks for Week 11
Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers (vs. TB)
It should come as no shock to anyone that the 49ers came out of their bye week and quickly put an end to their three-game losing streak.
After three straight games with only one touchdown pass, Brock Purdy bounced back to throw three on top of 296 yards passing. He did this despite having no need to throw all game, as the 49ers’ opponents seemingly forgot their bye week ended, too.
Purdy’s rest-of-season schedule is fantastic, and it starts this week with a Bucs defense allowing 19.5 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the fourth-most in the league.
With quarterback scoring down across the board, Purdy’s 18.5 ppg is good for QB12 on the season. He’s been a QB1 and remains so in a great matchup against a pass-funnel defense this week.
Ty Chandler, RB, Minnesota Vikings (at DEN)
Just two short weeks ago, Ty Chandler was buried as the RB3 on the Vikings’ depth chart. Since then, Cam Akers tore his other Achilles, and now Alexander Mattison is in the concussion protocol.
It is possible Mattison gets cleared this week, in which case Chandler would no longer be a recommended start. However, I write this on Tuesday, and as of now, I am operating under the presumption Mattison will miss a week.
If Mattison is indeed out, that would put Chandler in the RB1 role against a Broncos run defense allowing the most ppg, by far. They are surrendering 5.6 yards per carry to running backs — the second-worst team is at 4.6.
The Broncos have been playing better defensively overall, but they still struggle against the run. Anyone watching them against the Bills on Monday night saw James Cook and Latavius Murray do whatever they wanted all game.
Even before Mattison went down last week, Chandler was pushing for more of a role. His touchdown came before Mattison’s concussion.
Chandler could’ve been looking at increased role this week regardless. Without Mattison, he may crest a 60% snap share. In a favorable matchup on an offense that is still scoring a ton of points, that is someone you want in fantasy lineups.
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns (vs. PIT)
Playing the Packers’ anemic offense last week helped the Steelers’ defensive numbers against running backs. But this remains a run-funnel defense.
The Steelers still allow the 12th-most ppg to RBs. And Jerome Ford is coming off a 17-carry, 107-yard effort against the Ravens.
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It is clear Ford is the lead back and Kareem Hunt’s previous increased usage was purely a product of Ford’s injury. Now fully healthy, this is once again Ford’s backfield.
The Browns are at home and remain slight favorites despite the downgrade from Deshaun Watson to Dorian Thompson-Robinson. While this definitely reduces the likelihood the Browns will be in scoring position for Ford, they will almost certainly implement a more run-heavy game plan to do their best to hide their rookie quarterback.
Given the Steelers’ atrocious offense and the Browns’ elite defense, it should be another heavy dose of Ford. Get him in lineups this week.
DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears (at DET)
While the Lions are suffocating against the run, they’ve been reasonably beatable through the air. Dare I say…a pass funnel? Of course, their explosive offense often forces teams to throw more than they want to. The other teams may not love that, but when we have their WRs in fantasy, we don’t mind.
The Lions allow the 11th-most ppg to WRs. And DJ Moore is long overdue for a big game. He hasn’t topped 13.4 fantasy points since his 49-point explosion in Week 5. His last few games have been a series of middling performances.
The Bears are likely to get Justin Fields back this week. On the season, Moore is averaging 20.4 ppg with Fields against 10.3 ppg without. Yes, the 20.4 ppg is skewed heavily by the 49-point outing, but the 10.3 ppg is not. Moore is better with Fields. And the combination of Fields’ return, the favorable matchup, and the likely negative game script should all lead to a nice game from the Bears WR1.
Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. PHI)
When we last saw the Chiefs, Rashee Rice was coming off a season-high 68% snap share. The Chiefs are still rotating their receivers at a frustrating rate, but there’s no denying Rice has been the most productive one on the team.
The theory behind starting Rice this week is two-fold. First, the Chiefs are coming off a bye. This is a great time to adjust the offense to get the rookie more involved, especially given the struggles and lack of talent of every other WR on the team.
Second, the Eagles are the biggest pass funnel in the NFL. No team is allowing more ppg to WRs. Specifically, they allow the most ppg to the slot, where Rice runs 50% of his routes. A whopping 72% of the Eagles’ total receiving yards allowed have gone to wide receivers.
This is a great spot for Rice in a potential shootout. He is a solid WR3 this week.
Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. TEN)
Last week, Evan Engram scored 5.2 fantasy points. It was his lowest output of the season in a game where the Jaguars seem to have forgotten their bye week ended.
Yet, Engram’s volume remained just fine. He saw seven targets for the eighth consecutive game. He caught four passes, which he’s done in every game this season. Even though he only managed 12 yards, that bankable volume is rare at the tight end position.
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I’m expecting the Jaguars to rebound this week in a winning effort against the Titans. Trevor Lawrence can’t throw every pass to Christian Kirk. And Calvin Ridley can’t get open. That should once again lead us to a nice target share for Engram.
Eventually, Engram is going to score a touchdown. He’s got 55 catches for 446 yards on the season without one. He shouldn’t need one this week to reach double-digit fantasy points, but if he does, he will be an elite TE1. Start him.
Sit ‘Em Picks for Week 11
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (vs. NYJ)
Can you really sit Josh Allen? Probably not. But Allen is coming off his second-worst game of the season, scoring just 16.38 fantasy points despite throwing and rushing for a touchdown.
So, what was his worst game of the season? That was back in Week 1 against these very Jets. In that game, Allen threw for 236 yards and one touchdown, scoring 12.04 fantasy points.
The Jets allow 14.4 ppg to quarterbacks, the eighth-fewest in the league. More problematic is the fact that they complete erase wide receivers. They allow the fewest ppg to WRs overall, and 8.3 ppg out wide. That’s bad news for Stefon Diggs, and the Bills don’t have another reliable WR outside of Diggs.
Allen remains an elite QB1 on the season, but it’s clear these are not the same Bills that march up and down the field at will. He’s firmly a QB1 this week, but he’s certainly not in my top five. If you have a guy like Dak Prescott or Kyler Murray behind him, I would strongly consider sitting Allen.
D’Onta Foreman, RB, Chicago Bears (at DET)
With Ty Chandler, part of the thesis is I’m projecting Mattison to miss. With D’Onta Foreman, it is the opposite, as I am projecting Khalil Herbert to return.
Last week, Herbert got in three full practices, but the Bears declined to activate him from IR. Foreman got another start and crushed it, carrying the ball 21 times for 80 yards and a touchdown.
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This week, I am concerned about both Foreman’s workload with Herbert back and the matchup. The Lions have been one of the most difficult teams to run on this season. They’re allowing 16.4 ppg to the position, the fifth-fewest in the league. Opposing running backs are averaging just 3.6 ypc against them.
Foreman is not very active as a pass catcher. Last week’s two catches for 12 yards is about as good as it gets. That means he needs to rely on rushing efficiency and touchdowns to produce. If Foreman carries the ball 15 times for 60 yards, catches one pass, and doesn’t score, what exactly does that do for your fantasy team? The answer is not much. He is a sit this week.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers (vs. DAL)
There are spots to start Chuba Hubbard. This is not one of them. Despite being the clear lead back for the Panthers, Hubbard hasn’t really seen an increase in production. He’s scored between 5.9 and 10.7 fantasy points over his last three games.
Now, the Panthers are heavy home underdogs against one of the best defenses in football. The Cowboys allow the eighth-fewest ppg to running backs. Opposing running backs average 3.6 ypc against them.
Anything can happen in the NFL, but the most likely outcome for this game is the Panthers get completely smoked. That will force them to abandon the run early. Hubbard’s only hope of a productive fantasy day is to gobble up a few receptions. We have yet to see that from him this season. It is not something fantasy managers should bank on. Sit him.
Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings (at DEN)
This is not the first time the very talented rookie has appeared in the sit column. It may not be his last.
For as well as Joshua Dobbs has played, Kirk Cousins he is not. I don’t believe Dobbs can support two fantasy-relevant WRs. But even if Justin Jefferson remains out another week, it’s not as if Jordan Addison has been doing much since Cousins went down.
Addison was averaging 15.8 ppg with Cousins. In his two games without him, just 10.5 ppg.
This week, the Vikings get a Broncos run-funnel defense. We just witnessed them shut down Josh Allen, while giving up several long runs to the Bills’ running backs.
The Broncos allow the 16th-fewest ppg to WRs, which is pretty impressive considering what Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins did to them back in Week 3. They are much improved.
Addison is not going to completely flop. If a 5-50 line is good enough for you, then keep Addison in lineups. Unfortunately, the 20-point ceiling we saw earlier in the season just doesn’t exist anymore, and especially not in a matchup like this one.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (at CLE)
Here are George Pickens’ stat lines from his last three games: 1-22-1, 2 for -1, 3-45. He hasn’t seen more than five targets in any of these games.
Diontae Johnson may not be lighting the world on fire either, but he’s the clear WR1, and it’s a problem for Pickens’ volume — as is the Steelers’ run-heavy game plan.
This week, things won’t get easier against a Browns defense allowing the third-fewest ppg to WRs. The 52% catch rate they allow to the position is the lowest in the league.
The Steelers will do what they always do — look to shorten the game with running and ball control, liming what Kenny Pickett must do through the air. When they do throw, Johnson remains the primary option. There just won’t be a ton of volume for Pickens.
As we saw in Week 8, even a touchdown may not be enough to salvage his day. He is a sit this week.
Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans (vs. ARI)
It has been a great six-week stretch for Dalton Schultz after a dismal start to the season. Over that span, Schultz has scored at least 11 fantasy points in all but one game, including a 27-point explosion in Week 9. The Texans have also enjoyed a great stretch of opponents that struggle against the tight end. Unfortunately, that’s all about to end.
The Cardinals were once a team to target if streaming tight ends — not anymore. This unit has been elite against the position, allowing 8.7 ppg, the sixth-fewest in the league. Just 16.7% of their receiving yards allowed has gone to the position.
C.J. Stroud has the Rookie of the Year award all but locked up. He is playing MVP-level football. He is not going to force the ball to his tight end against a defense built to stop it.
Schultz should remain on fantasy rosters because he’s proven worthy of being started as a TE1, but he has a very difficult schedule upcoming for tight ends. It starts this week. You may not have a better option, but I would not recommend starting Schultz against the Cardinals this week.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!