Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating — or most rewarding — part of fantasy football. Here to help you make those decisions are our start ’em and sit ’em picks. Lineup decisions are crucial as fantasy managers seek that ever elusive championship. Let’s take a look at our top Week 17 start/sit plays.
Start ‘Em Picks for Week 17
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (at PHI)
Since returning, Kyler Murray has flashed the upside he previously had, but it hasn’t yet truly manifested in terms of fantasy production. He’s scored 20+ fantasy points in three of his six starts, but has been more of a floor play than someone who can help win you your matchup.
This could be the week that flips.
Murray is in a dream spot on the road against a Philadelphia Eagles defense allowing 21.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the most in the league. They are one of just two teams allowing more than 300 yards passing per game at 306.7. The Los Angeles Rams are the other at 307.2.
This could be the game Murray throws for 300, runs for 50, and scores three times, carrying fantasy managers to titles.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. ARI)
After a four-week drought, D’Andre Swift finally cracked double-digit fantasy points on Monday afternoon. He carried the ball 20 times for 92 yards and his first touchdown since Week 11.
A big problem for Swift’s fantasy value is that he has exactly a 0% chance of getting carries from the 1-yard-line because those are all Brotherly Shoves for Jalen Hurts. It severely caps Swift’s fantasy value.
There’s also the matter of Kenneth Gainwell being the clear passing-down back and Swift becoming Jamaal Williams in terms of passing game involvement (nonexistent). He hasn’t even seen a target in two of his last three games and has caught more than two passes just once since Week 7.
Fortunately, even with minimal receiving work, Swift should be able to get it done on the ground this week. The Arizona Cardinals have now overtaken the Denver Broncos to allow the most points per game to running backs. With a projected positive game script, Swift could see another 18+ carries and break off some big gains. He is a strong RB2 in Week 17.
Ty Chandler, RB, Minnesota Vikings (vs. GB)
Alexander Mattison played last week, but I’m not sure why, as he was limited to just five total snaps due to his sprained ankle. This week, Mattison should be healthier, but I still expect Ty Chandler to be the clear lead option in this Minnesota Vikings backfield.
Against an elite Detroit Lions run defense, Chandler was held to 17 yards on eight carries and did not see a target, but he should have a much easier time against a Green Bay Packers defense allowing 23.0 points per game to running backs.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
The Packers allow 101 rushing yards and 0.9 rushing touchdowns per game. They also have yielded a healthy 19.9% target share to running backs.
Chandler offers both floor and ceiling this week in a favorable spot at home in a must-win game.
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans (vs. TEN)
Nico Collins has sorely missed C.J. Stroud. Over the last three weeks, he’s posted lines of 1-13-0, inactive due to injury, and 4-18-1. Last week, he salvaged his fantasy day by scoring, but it hasn’t been pretty.
Fortunately, help should be on the way. With the Houston Texans still very much not only in the playoff race, but the AFC South division title race, Stroud reportedly has a good chance to return in Week 17.
The timing couldn’t be better with the Texans home against a Tennessee Titans defense allowing the sixth-most points per game to wide receivers. The Titans have a pass-funnel defense that sees a league-high 72% of their receiving yards allowed go to the wide receiver position. We should see Collins get back to his seven-plus-catch, 70+ yard ways on Sunday.
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens (vs. MIA)
This Baltimore Ravens–Miami Dolphins game could be one for the ages. I am hoping for a back-and-forth festival of points from these two explosive offenses, and if that happens, it should be another big day for Zay Flowers.
The rookie is coming off his heaviest usage of the season against the San Francisco 49ers. Flowers caught nine of 13 targets for 72 yards and a touchdown, and he’s now scored 20+ fantasy points in three of his last four outings.
The Dolphins allow the 15th-most points per contest to wide receivers. They are a decidedly average matchup, and that’s good enough for the clear WR1 on the Ravens in a possible shootout.
Gerald Everett, TE, Los Angeles Chargers (at DEN)
Gerald Everett may have one of the lowest ceilings at the tight end position, but many of us just need a decent floor. That, he can do.
Everett has scored at least 8.4 fantasy points in five straight games, and he’s seen exactly eight targets in three straight.
With Keenan Allen almost certainly not playing again this season with his injury, Everett is the de facto second option in this passing game behind Joshua Palmer. Against a Broncos defense allowing 16.5 points per game to tight ends, the most in the league, Everett is a surefire TE1 this week.
Sit ‘Em Picks for Week 17
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions (at DAL)
On paper, this isn’t the worst matchup against a Dallas Cowboys defense allowing 15.8 points per game to quarterbacks, the 14th-fewest in the league. But I am fully taking a narrative-driven approach to this call.
The Cowboys have now lost two straight games. They are back home where they play their best football. Therefore, I expect a heavily motivated Cowboys team to take the field wanting to stop this two-game skid.
Meanwhile, the Lions have won two straight and clinched their first division title since 1993. The No. 1 overall seed in the NFC is not out of reach, but it’s certainly not likely. Of course, they are playing to win. However, you can’t help but think that this is a spot where the Cowboys will just want it more.
If that projected game script plays out, Dallas will win this one decisively. Jared Goff, on the road, against one of the best defenses in the league, in a game the Lions don’t need to win could spell disaster for fantasy football. This could be something like a 200-yard, one-touchdown, two-interception game from Goff, which is not going to do fantasy managers any good.
De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins (at BAL)
I fully expect De’Von Achane to be the Dolphins’ lead back in 2024. But for the remainder of 2023, we need to accept the team is taking it easy on him with all the injuries he’s dealt with this season.
Achane did play 55% of the snaps last week, but he only saw 10 opportunities. He’s also seen his efficiency fall of a cliff the past two games, averaging fewer than 3.6 yards per carry.
The Dolphins are on the road in Baltimore this week in what is a matchup for the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. The Ravens allow 17.5 points per contest to running backs, the fifth-fewest in the league. And we know if the Dolphins do get near the goal line, it will be Raheem Mostert, not Achane, handling those carries.
Outside of his ability to take one long run 60+ yards for a touchdown, which is impossible to project, it’s hard to envision how Achane provides more than low-end RB2/high-end Flex production in Week 17.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers (at MIN)
Last week, Aaron Jones came through as a recommended start. Now, I caution fantasy managers to temper expectations.
For starters, the Vikings are solid against the run — they allow the 13th-fewest points per outing to the position. That alone is certainly not reason enough to fade Jones, though. The bigger issue is his usage.
Jones is definitely still talented enough to be a productive option for fantasy purposes. He proved as much by running for 127 yards on 21 carries last week. With that being said, while those are great rushing numbers, he’s playing a mere 50% of the snaps and neither catches passes nor gets goal-line carries.
Patrick Taylor has taken over the passing down role with AJ Dillon dealing with a broken thumb. However, Dillon is still healthy enough to handle carries, so he maintains his role as the power back.
That leaves Jones as the dreaded two-down back that doesn’t catch passes and doesn’t get goal-line opportunities. It’s just very difficult for a back like that to provide a big game. Without a soft matchup, Jones could still be efficient on the ground, yet fail to reach double-digit fantasy points.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. CAR)
For what I believe was the first time all season, Calvin Ridley was actually a recommended start last week. And he came through, catching six of nine targets for 90 yards and two touchdowns. It was also Ridley’s first double-digit outing in four weeks.
This week, the real Ridley should return. That is, the guy who struggles to get open and gets erased by good pass defenses. For as bad as the Carolina Panthers have been as a team, they have a really solid pass defense. They’re allowing the fourth-fewest points per game to wide receivers.
On the flip side, they really struggle against the run, allowing 107 rushing yards per game to running backs. With Trevor Lawrence very banged up and possibly not playing, this is a prime spot for a Travis Etienne bounce-back performance.
Look for the Jaguars to lean on the run, leaving not much for Ridley to do through the air.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills (vs. NE)
The names in this side of the column are supposed to be guys who are perceived as locked-in starters that I think you may not want to put in lineups.
In a typical 12-team fantasy league, even assuming every single team is starting a wide receiver at the Flex, we’re looking at a maximum of 48 wide receivers started every week. You don’t need me to tell you not to start random WR5s like DeVante Parker and Darius Slayton.
So, what am I doing calling the guy who has been the WR53 since Week 10, averaging fewer points per contest than the two guys I just mentioned over that span, a sit? Of course, we all know why. It’s because his name is Stefon Diggs, and he’s been an elite WR1 for the last half-decade.
Last week, I don’t know if there was a single fantasy analyst who ranked Diggs lower than where I had him at WR29. And even that wasn’t anywhere near low enough.
The purpose of his name being here is to tell you that it’s okay to bench him. It’s been two months since he was a useful fantasy asset. The only game in that span in which he was start-worthy was in an epic shootout against the worst pass defense in the NFL.
Diggs did post a 6-58-1 line against the New England Patriots in Week 7. That was also a surprisingly competitive game in which the Bills lost. At home, the Bills should win comfortably and lean on the run to do so. Expect more of the same from Diggs this week.
Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans (vs. TEN)
It’s difficult to recommend sitting any tight ends that are seeing reasonable target shares. If you need to start Dalton Schultz, it’s fine. He was able to manage a 4-58 line on five targets when these teams met two weeks ago.
The concern with Schultz is the Titans have been the best team at defending the tight end all season, allowing just 8.6 points per game to the position. A mere 11% of their total receiving yards allowed have gone to tight ends.
C.J. Stroud’s potential return would certainly help, but Schultz is unlikely to produce a big game in a tough matchup this week.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!