Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating or most rewarding part of fantasy football. Here to help you make those decisions are our fantasy football start ’em and sit ’em picks. Lineup decisions are crucial as fantasy managers make that final playoff push. Let’s take a look at our early Week 15 start/sit plays.
Start ‘Em Picks for Week 15
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (vs. WAS)
I don’t regret the process that led me to put Matthew Stafford on the other side of this column last week. It just didn’t work out. That happens.
Stafford is playing at an extremely high level right now. It’s the best he’s played since 2021. This week, we are not chasing last week’s production. From the moment I saw this matchup on the schedule, I knew Stafford would be one of the ‘starts’ of the week.
After failing to so much as reach 17.5 fantasy points over the first 11 weeks of the season, Stafford has now scored 22.9 fantasy points in three straight. This week, he gets a Washington Commanders defense allowing 22.0 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the second-most in the league. Stafford is easily a top-eight QB this week.
David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions (vs. DEN)
The emergence of Jahmyr Gibbs has undoubtedly lowered David Montgomery’s weekly ceiling. But even so, did you know last week was the first time all season that Montgomery 1) failed to score a touchdown, and 2) failed to reach double-digit fantasy points, excluding the game he injured his ribs and left early?
Montgomery has been incredibly reliable all season and still managed 11.5 fantasy points against the Chicago Bears despite not scoring.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
This week, Montgomery will enjoy a home matchup against the Denver Broncos, who allow the most ppg to running backs. They are surrendering 5.5 yards per carry and 124 rushing yards per game.
The Detroit Lions are at home and coming off a bad road loss to the Bears. I’m expecting them to bounce back in a big way. That should mean a positive game script and touchdown opportunities for Montgomery. Start him.
Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. IND)
It’s been a very disappointing three-week stretch for Jaylen Warren. After scoring 14.3+ fantasy points from Weeks 9-11, his 8.0 fantasy points last week marked his best week since.
Fortunately, things should be much better this week on the road against an Indianapolis Colts defense that allows the third-most ppg to running backs. The Colts have been below average at stopping running backs as receivers, with a healthy 17.4% of their total receiving yards allowed going to running backs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are still in the thick of the playoff race, but they absolutely need a win this week. I’m not saying they get there, but they should play much better against the Colts than they did against the New England Patriots. Warren should be a big part of that.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks (vs. PHI)
Even with Drew Lock under center, Tyler Lockett was able to post a really solid outing last week. His 14.9 fantasy points marked his best game since Week 10.
This week, things should be even more favorable for the Seattle Seahawks’ WR2. The Philadelphia Eagles remain the most favorable opponent for wide receivers, allowing the most ppg to the position by a whopping 4.7-point margin.
This is a game where the Seahawks should have to throw 35+ times to attempt to keep pace with the Eagles’ explosive offense. It’s been a while since Lockett had one of his patented ceiling games. I think we get one this week.
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens (at JAX)
It seems easy to pick a guy who is coming off consecutive 20-point outings, but let’s not pretend Zay Flowers has been this reliable fantasy starter all season. By no means has he been a must-start … but he is this week.
MORE: Early Week 15 Waiver Wire Pickups
The Jacksonville Jaguars allow the eighth-most ppg to wide receivers. Flowers is the Baltimore Ravens’ clear WR1 and has seen 18 targets over his last two games.
While the Ravens do sport an excellent pass defense, I think we could be in for a thrilling high-scoring affair between the top-seeded Ravens and the suddenly sputtering Jaguars. Look for Flowers to extend his 20-point game streak to three.
Logan Thomas, TE, Washington Commanders (at LAR)
In Week 8, Logan Thomas faced a bottom-10 opponent against tight ends. He scored 16.4 fantasy points. Since then, the matchups have ranged from average to bad, and Thomas hasn’t topped 9.0 fantasy points. When we last saw him, he commanded just a single target all game, and the only stat he recorded was a two-point conversion.
For the final time this season, Thomas now finds himself faced with a favorable matchup. The Los Angeles Rams allow the fourth-most ppg to tight ends, and 25.75% of their total receiving yards allowed go to the position.
I’m sure many of you dropped Thomas with his bye being last week. If you can pick him back up and start him, this is the week to do it.
Sit ‘Em Picks for Week 15
Jake Browning, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. MIN)
Jake Browning has been far better than I ever could’ve anticipated since replacing Joe Burrow. Over the past two weeks, he’s not only been a fantasy QB1, he’s been an elite QB1, scoring 22.6 and 24.7 fantasy points.
On the surface, this week’s home matchup against the Minnesota Vikings doesn’t look too bad. The Vikings allow the 11th-fewest ppg to quarterbacks.
However, recently the Vikings have been playing at an all-world level defensively. Brian Flores has turned this defense into one opposing offenses do not want to face. Accordingly, neither do fantasy managers.
Given the weapons at Browning’s disposal, he shouldn’t be a total disaster, but a 20-point upside almost certainly doesn’t exist. If you’ve been streaming Browning, look elsewhere in the first round of the fantasy playoffs.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks (vs. PHI)
Early in the season, Kenneth Walker III was playing upwards of 70% of the snaps most weeks. Beginning around Week 8, Zach Charbonnet started to push him for more touches. After Walker missed two weeks, and Charbonnet played well, this is now officially a timeshare.
In a mostly neutral game script, I expect Walker and Charbonnet to essentially alternate drives. That means for Walker to have a chance at RB1 numbers, he needs a positive game script.
MORE: 2023 Dynasty RB Rankings
The Eagles are coming off consecutive losses. The Seahawks are likely starting Drew Lock again. Are we anticipating a positive game script this week? I most certainly am not.
As if that isn’t reason enough to fade Walker, the Eagles are a massive pass-funnel defense. They allow the most ppg to quarterbacks but the fourth-fewest to running backs. They’re allowing just 0.3 touchdowns per game to the position.
The only reason Walker even got close to double-digits last week was because he caught four passes for 33 yards. He hadn’t caught more than one in his previous four games. I wouldn’t bank on that bailing him out again. It could be a rough day at the office for Walker.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals (vs. SF)
It’s great for James Conner that he is rested and healthy following a bye. That at least gives him a chance at a better-than-expected game. When we last saw him, he posted season-best numbers against the Steelers, carrying the ball 25 times for 105 yards and two touchdowns.
Unfortunately, Conner gets the San Francisco 49ers this week. When these teams last met, Conner ran the ball 11 times for 52 yards and caught one of two targets for four yards. The 49ers currently allow the fifth-fewest ppg to running backs. Fantasy managers should expect more of the same from Conner this week. Sit him if you can.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. BAL)
In the start ’em portion of this column, I mentioned how I think this Sunday night contest could be high-scoring. You would think that’s good for Calvin Ridley. Well, you would also think seeing 13 targets in a game would be good for Ridley. Yet, he posted a pedestrian 4-53 line last week on those 13 targets.
The Ravens allow the 12th-fewest ppg to wide receivers. They especially limit outside receivers, where Ridley almost exclusively lines up.
With Christian Kirk out, Trevor Lawrence is forced to target Ridley more. Unfortunately, Ridley simply isn’t good enough to do much with those targets. He just can’t get open.
Look for Lawrence to lean more on Evan Engram and Zay Jones this week, resulting in another dismal outing from one of the most overrated receivers in the game.
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons (vs. CAR)
Two weeks ago, we faded Drake London. It worked. Last week, London was a recommended start. He led the entire NFL in receiving. Now, we’re back off the London train.
For the Atlanta Falcons’ passing game, it’s quite simple: Will they have to throw? The answer against the Carolina Panthers’ run-funnel defense is no.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
Week 1 was admittedly a long time ago, but in that game, London didn’t catch a pass. I’m quite sure he will catch a pass in this one, but it might only be one or two, much like he did two weeks ago.
The Panthers allow the fourth-most ppg to running backs, but the fifth-fewest to wide receivers. Expect a whole bunch of Bijan Robinson this week and for Desmond Ridder to attempt half as many passes as he did last week. Sit London.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons (vs. CAR)
If it feels like I’m picking on the Falcons’ passing game, it’s because I am. They’ve become surprisingly straightforward to predict.
Last week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers forced the Falcons to throw on their pass-funnel defense. They did — and it worked, even though they lost the game.
This week, that won’t be the case against the aforementioned run-funnel defense of the Panthers. In addition to stifling wide receivers, they also stop tight ends, allowing the seventh-fewest ppg to the position.
Let’s not pretend like Kyle Pitts’ 14.7-point outing last week was impressive. He scored. Most tight ends will be TE1s when they score. Pitts still commanded just six targets, which is even more disappointing when you realize Ridder attempted 40 passes. Sit Pitts in a bad matchup this week.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!