Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating or most rewarding part of fantasy football. Here to help you make those decisions are our start ’em and sit ’em picks. Lineup decisions are crucial as fantasy managers make that playoff push. Let’s take a look at our early Week 12 start/sit plays.
Start ‘Em Picks for Week 12
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (vs. LAR)
Folks. He’s back. Roughly a year removed from tearing his ACL, Kyler Murray looks like Kyler Murray.
There was some concern Murray wouldn’t run as much right away. Well, he’s got 84 rushing yards total and a rushing touchdown in each of his two games back. Murray has posted 18.26 and 22.66 fantasy points. If you threw caution to the wind and thrust him into your lineup immediately, you were rewarded.
MORE: Fantasy FAAB Picks Week 12
This week, the Arizona Cardinals face a Los Angeles Rams defense that has been average against quarterbacks, allowing the 15th-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Lest we forget, Murray has been a set-it-and-forget-it QB every year of his career, beginning his sophomore season. We thought there might be rust. He’s shown no signs of that. Get him in lineups.
Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins (at NYJ)
It looks like Raheem Mostert szn is back on. De’Von Achane’s return was short-lived, as he reinjured the same knee that cost him four games. That resulted in Mostert seeing 22 carries against the Raiders, which he turned into 86 scoreless yards.
With the Dolphins playing on a short week and the team very cautious with injuries, Achane is almost certainly not playing this week. That puts Mostert back into the lead back role against a New York Jets defense that is far more beatable on the ground than through the air.
The Jets are allowing the ninth-most ppg to running backs, including 101 rushing yards per game and 4.0 ypc. With the Dolphins installed as heavy favorites, they should have no trouble controlling the game and being able to run the ball. Mostert is a very strong start this week.
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans (vs. CAR)
Is it fair for me to include Derrick Henry here? Obviously, the purpose of these start ’em/sit ’em plays is not to tell fantasy managers to start Tyreek Hill or Christian McCaffrey. For years, Henry has been a guy in that phylum. No one is asking start/sit questions about him because he’s an obvious start. But is he still?
Henry has run the ball a total of 21 times for 62 yards over his last two games. He’s scored 3.0 and 5.4 fantasy points. There are definitely concerned managers out there. Fortunately, this is a great week for the King to return to his throne.
The Tennessee Titans have a home matchup against the Carolina Panthers. Opponents don’t get much easier for running backs than the Panthers. They allow 28.9 ppg to running backs, as well as 114 rushing yards per game and 4.6 ypc. All three of those numbers are second-most in the league.
Equally important, the Titans are home favorites. Last week, they fell behind early. Thus, they were forced to use more Tyjae Spears and couldn’t lean on Henry. This week, they should be able to stuff Henry with 20+ carries. Henry is going to remind everyone just who he is this week. Don’t let it happen on your bench.
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens (at LAC)
For the better part of the past month, Zay Flowers has been quite disappointing, as has just one game with more than 8.0 fantasy points. His best outing of the season continues to be his first one. With just one touchdown on the season, Flowers hasn’t been able to provide fantasy managers with that spike game. Well, I think this is the week.
Flowers suddenly has a lot going for him. For starters, Mark Andrews is out. That opens up roughly 25% of Lamar Jackson’s targets, and they’re certainly not all going to Isaiah Likely.
But more importantly, it’s the opponent. The Los Angeles Chargers allow the second-most ppg to wide receivers. Flowers is the clear WR1, and there’s a chance this game could be sneaky high-scoring. Look for Jackson to pepper his new top pass catcher with targets. If Flowers finds the end zone, I think 20 fantasy points is realistic this week.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets (vs. MIA)
All it takes is one completely disastrous week, like Garrett Wilson had, for fantasy managers to start questioning their entire existence. I always base my numbers on PPR, but if you play in half-PPR, then I get to say this:
You see that person staring back at you in the mirror? Yeah, that one. They scored more fantasy points than Wilson last week.
MORE: Fantasy Football WR Week 12 Trade Targets
Wilson caught two passes for nine yards and lost a fumble. He also had a really bad drop. It was easily the worst game of the gifted receiver’s young career. It’s the type of game that, combined with the Jets making the move to Tim Boyle, will have fantasy managers wondering if Wilson is still startable.
Yes, Boyle is a very bad quarterback. Yes, Zach Wilson is a very bad quarterback. But these quarterbacks are still in the top 0.01% of all quarterbacks in the world. They are capable of completing passes.
Prior to last week, Wilson had scored 17.0 or more fantasy points in three of his last four. He has just three games under 10.0 fantasy points. All things considered, he’s been pretty good this season. The elite ceiling we wanted with Aaron Rodgers obviously doesn’t exist, but Wilson has been only a minor bust relative to ADP.
This week, he gets a Dolphins defense allowing the 11th-most ppg to wide receivers. With the Jets almost certain to face negative game script, we should see a lot more passes from Boyle than the Jets would prefer. Those passes are probably going in Wilson’s direction.
Look for a big bounce-back performance from the sophomore talent. Wilson hasn’t posted a dud game two weeks in a row, and that won’t start now.
David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns (at DEN)
The Denver Broncos may be vastly improved defensively, but one area where they continue to struggle is against tight ends. No team allows more than the 16.5 ppg the Broncos yield to the position.
Over the past five weeks, David Njoku has hit double-digit fantasy points in every game. There’s a nonzero chance he’s the only tight end to accomplish that feat over that span. Most impressively, he’s done it with three different quarterbacks.
Last week, Njoku saw an incredible 15 targets from Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The towering pass catcher only caught seven of them for 56 yards, but I don’t really care what his efficiency is if he’s seeing 15 targets.
Njoku’s last three games came against defenses that are very good against the position, and now he gets one that isn’t. 28.3% of the Broncos’ total receiving yards allowed have gone to the tight end position. Njoku is a must-start this week.
Sit ‘Em Picks for Week 12
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (at HOU)
If you’ve been following me all season, surely you didn’t think that one incredible week from Trevor Lawrence would cause me to reverse my evaluation of him as a player.
Lawrence deserves all the credit in the world for his four-touchdown, 32.18-fantasy point performance last week. After fantasy managers, myself included, finally put him on the bench following his 4.1-point Week 10 dud, Lawrence finished as the overall QB1 against the Titans.
Naturally, fantasy managers across the land will insert him back into lineups this week. I am here to caution against that.
This is the same player who hadn’t so much as reached 19 fantasy points all season prior to last week. Against the Texans in Week 3, he posted 15.36 fantasy points.
Did Lawrence suddenly break through? Are we seeing the beginning of an ascension to the ranks of the elite? Maybe. I can’t rule it out. But I’m certainly not buying it after one game.
The Texans present an above-average matchup for quarterbacks, but I would stop short of calling them a soft pass defense. Until we see it again from Lawrence, he should remain on benches.
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills (at PHI)
The Buffalo Bills backfield has been quite the enigma. One week, James Cook is out there handling 20 touches. The next week, Latavius Murray is starting. Then, we even see Ty Johnson involved. It makes starting a guy like Cook very frustrating.
Over the past two weeks, though, it’s been mostly good. Cook has been very efficient on the ground and even caught a short touchdown against the Jets.
MORE: Yates’ Fantasy Football Updated RB Rest-of-Season Rankings Week 12
This week, however, could be a different story. The Bills have a road date against the Eagles, who have the best run defense in the league. The Eagles are allowing the fewest ppg to running backs — they surrender just 53 rushing yards per game. They also have been very good at stopping pass-catching backs, with just 10.2% of their total receiving yards allowed going to RBs.
We could get an epic shootout between the Eagles and Bills, but if the Bills are to hold up their end of the bargain, it’s likely to be through the air.
Cook isn’t necessarily a must-sit, but he will likely need to rack up receptions and find the end zone to be a worthwhile start this week.
AJ Dillon, RB, Green Bay Packers (at DET)
Every time Aaron Jones misses a game, AJ Dillon gets bumped up the fantasy rankings. Has it really ever worked out this season? The only game where Dillon was a worthwhile start was against the Raiders, and only because he scored. Dillon posted 13.6 fantasy points that week, his season high.
When these two teams last met, Jones made his unceremonious return too soon from a two-game absence. Dillon still operated as the lead back, though, amassing a whopping 11 yards on five carries. That was his entire stat line.
I can assure you Dillon will be better than that this week, but if he carries the ball 15 times for 45 scoreless yards, what does that really do for you?
The Lions field one of the toughest run defenses in the league, as they’re allowing the fifth-fewest ppg to the position. Opposing running backs manage just 62 rushing yards per game at 3.5 ypc against them.
Given that the only other backs on the Packers’ active roster on Thursday are likely to be guys who weren’t on the team last week, Dillon should be staring down the barrel of a massive workload. His volume should keep him from completely bottoming out. But unless he falls into the end zone, he’s unlikely to reach double-digit fantasy points. On a week where no teams are on bye, you shouldn’t need Dillon.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos (vs. CLE)
It definitely feels wrong to recommend benching Courtland Sutton. He’s been one of the most reliable receivers in all of fantasy, posting double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season.
This is one of those situations where I think watching the games is important. There’s no denying Sutton’s talent, but his production has been very flukey. I know that’s tough to say after 11 weeks, but that’s the importance of watching the games.
Sutton has had multiple games where he didn’t start producing until the second half, and he’s had multiple games that would’ve been disasters had he not scored.
Touchdowns are awesome. In fact, they are everything in fantasy. But Sutton’s touchdown rate is unsustainable. He’s scored one and only one touchdown in all but two games this season.
This week, I don’t like Sutton’s chances of finding the end zone against a Browns defense allowing the second-fewest ppg to wide receivers. The Browns’ offense may be a disaster with Thompson-Robinson under center, but they have arguably the best overall defense in the NFL.
If Sutton doesn’t score, he’s probably not reaching double digits. Do not feel bad about sitting him this week.
Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns (at DEN)
For the second WR sit, we are sticking with the same game. Amari Cooper is still as talented as ever, and in a different situation, he’d be an every-week WR2. Unfortunately, he’s stuck with DTR at quarterback.
Last week, Cooper caught four passes for 34 yards, as Thompson-Robinson opted to repeatedly check it down to Njoku to the tune of 15 targets.
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I don’t have much hope for things getting better against a resurgent Broncos pass defense. Denver is allowing the 11th-fewest ppg to wide receivers. And that number is even better than it looks because they were allowing the most ppg to wide receivers earlier this season.
Two weeks ago, the Broncos shut down Stefon Diggs. Last week, they contained Jordan Addison. Next up, it’s going to be Cooper. In a game where the Browns will try and run the ball over and over again, Cooper is bound to underwhelm. Sit him if you can.
Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens (at LAC)
In Week 1, Likely filled in for Andrews and saw exactly one target. Last Thursday night, Andrews went down in the first quarter. Likely was the primary tight end for the rest of the game, but he saw just two targets.
Talent matters. Likely is far from a terrible player, but he’s not Andrews. He’s not good enough to command targets at the expense of the team’s wide receivers the way Andrews is.
I would love for Likely to prove me wrong, and if it were ever going to happen, it would be this week against a Chargers defense allowing the third-most ppg to the position.
Luke Musgrave couldn’t take advantage of the soft matchup last week. I don’t think Likely will, either.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!