Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating or most rewarding part of fantasy football. Here to help you make those decisions are our start ’em and sit ’em picks. Fantasy decisions will only get more difficult from here on out, so let’s take a look at our early start/sit Week 5 plays.
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Start ‘Em Picks for Week 5
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
I want to make a formal petition to the fantasy platforms for the option to split Jared Goff into two separate players: Home Goff and Road Goff.
Since 2021, Goff has averaged 21.7 fantasy points per game at home against 15.0 ppg on the road. In his last 15 home starts, Goff has thrown multiple touchdown passes in 13 of them.
Do not fear the Carolina Panthers’ low fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. So far, they’ve faced Desmond Ridder, Derek Carr, Geno Smith, and Kirk Cousins. Smith threw for nearly 300 yards, and Cousins threw for two touchdowns. The numbers are skewed by Ridder and Carr.
Goff is a top-eight option at QB this week. Start him.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Through four weeks, James Conner has averaged 13.7 ppg. More impressively, he’s averaging 5.1 yards per carry on what was supposed to be the worst offense in football.
Surprisingly, the Arizona Cardinals are a spunky bunch, and Conner is their clear workhorse. While he doesn’t have the best touchdown upside, Conner is dominating work in the team’s backfield.
A home matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals may not seem great, but the Bengals have been the worst offense in football through four games. If the Cardinals can avoid a negative game script, that would increase Conner’s chances of having a strong fantasy outing.
The Bengals are allowing 4.9 ypc to opposing running backs. They are 15th in fantasy points allowed. The matchup isn’t bad, and Conner’s role is elite. He is a strong volume-based start in a game the Cardinals are capable of winning.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Through four games, Breece Hall is averaging 6.56 yards per carry. The man is top five in evaded tackles per touch and yards per touch. This is despite having a game in which he ran the ball 12 times for 18 yards. That’s how good Hall has been, and he’s done it while clearly at less than 100%.
In Week 4, Hall looked as good as he has all season. That little gimp we saw in his long run back in Week 1 wasn’t there anymore. He’s getting healthier. He’s trusting his knee more. The snap share hasn’t been there yet, but this could be the week. The Jets appear ready to release the shackles they have placed on all so far.
Jets’ HC Robert Saleh told reporters that the team will not be limiting RB Breece Hall’s workload any longer.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 4, 2023
The New York Jets get the Denver Broncos. You know the Broncos — the team that let Miami Dolphins rookie RB De’Von Achane run for 200 yards against them.
The Broncos have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs, and it isn’t close. They’ve allowed the most rushing yards to running backs, and it isn’t close. They’ve allowed the most rushing touchdowns to running backs, and it isn’t close.
I think you get the point.
Dalvin Cook should change his name to Dalvin Cooked because that’d be a more accurate description of where he’s at in his career. The Hall takeover is coming; he just needed the right opportunity. This is it. Hall is going to run all over the Broncos. In the words of Paul Heyman, that’s not a prediction. That’s a spoiler.
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers
After missing the first three games of the season, Christian Watson returned last Thursday to a limited role. By design, he played just 46% of the snaps, commanding only four targets. Yet, he still managed to score because that’s what he does.
Watson escaped the game with no setbacks, and he’s now had another 10 days to get himself fully healthy. Look for the Green Bay Packers to restore Watson to his rightful spot as the team’s WR1 this week, and it is the perfect spot in which to do it.
The Las Vegas Raiders are allowing a 69.2% catch rate to opposing WRs, and they’ve surrendered six touchdowns to the position. Overall, they are allowing the 13th-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
The Packers need a big bounce-back performance after their embarrassing home loss to the Detroit Lions. Watson should quickly remind fantasy managers why they drafted him in the fourth or fifth round.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts
After seeing double-digit targets in each of his first three games, the Michael Pittman Jr. train came off the rails in Week 4. He caught just one of his five targets for 15 yards.
So, is that it? Is Pittman bad now? Of course not. It was just a hiccup.
Pittman is still playing close to 100% of the snaps, and he’s the clear WR1 on a team that lacks any real threat behind him.
The Tennessee Titans were able to shut down the Bengals last week, but that’s not exactly difficult. Tennessee is still allowing the fifth most fantasy points to wide receivers, and a whopping 77.5% of their receiving yards allowed have gone to WRs.
The way to beat the Titans is through the air, as they are elite against the run. Even if Jonathan Taylor returns, there will be plenty of targets for Pittman. The towering wideout is going to bounce back in a big way this week. Don’t let last week scare you off from starting him.
Hayden Hurst, TE, Carolina Panthers
Hayden Hurst caught five of seven targets for 41 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Since then, he’s seen his production decrease in every game. Last week, it bottomed out at one catch for seven yards. So, why are we starting him this week? Well, it’s the Detroit Lions.
The Lions have a much-improved defense this season — I even like the Lions’ defense as a top streamer this week. But that doesn’t preclude Hurst from having a solid game.
MORE: Dynasty Rookie WR Rankings
Through four games, 30.3% of receiving yards allowed by the Lions have gone to tight ends. Detroit’s opponents are targeting the TE position 29.4% of the time. Both of those rates are the highest in the league.
With the Panthers lacking a true alpha at the WR position, relying so heavily on 33-year-old Adam Thielen, look for them to attack the Lions where they are most vulnerable and utilize the team’s top TE. Hurst is a sneaky streamer this week.
Sit ‘Em Picks for Week 5
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford isn’t the worst fantasy start in the world, but he’s just not the same prolific passer he used to be. Through four weeks, Stafford has thrown just three touchdowns and never more than one in a game. Meanwhile, he’s thrown five interceptions.
The Philadelphia Eagles have been surprisingly vulnerable through the air this season, but I attribute that more to a small sample size than anything else. Stafford may get Cooper Kupp back, but I’m expecting another game of around 250 yards and one TD. You can do better.
Miles Sanders, RB, Carolina Panthers
I will never be quite sure what the Panthers saw out of Miles Sanders’ first four years that compelled them to give him such a lucrative contract. Now, here we are four weeks into his tenure on the team, and he’s already losing playing time to Chuba Hubbard.
Sanders played a season-low 43% of the snaps last week. He carried the ball 13 times for 19 yards.
MORE: Dynasty Rookie RB Rankings
Now, he gets a Lions defense that’s allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Detroit is allowing an NFL-best 2.9 yards per carry. That doesn’t bode well for a running back averaging … 2.9 ypc. Sit Sanders this week.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots
These start/sit columns are supposed to be matchup-based. And for the most part, they are. But Rhamondre Stevenson being a sit isn’t based on matchup — he’s just an every-week sit.
Stevenson is averaging just 10.8 fantasy points per game. You can blame Ezekiel Elliott if you want, but it’s not his fault. Stevenson is still the clear lead back.
The third-year RB is playing 70% of the snaps and averaging 19 opportunities (carries + targets) a game.
The issue for Stevenson is that he’s not catching passes anymore, and he’s averaging 2.7 ypc on the ground. The only chance he has at providing a remotely useful fantasy day is if he falls into the end zone.
The New Orleans Saints are allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, and they yield just 3.6 ypc. The next rushing touchdown they allow will be the first.
Stevenson is playing on a New England Patriots offense that is one of the worst in the league. He has no touchdown upside and little hope of efficiency on the ground.
Sit him. Sell him. Trade him. Do whatever you need to do to make sure you never have to start Stevenson again.
Gabe Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills
Gabe Davis is averaging a very respectable 13 ppg on the season. That’s perfectly fine based on where he was drafted, but it’s all smoke and mirrors.
Davis is averaging just 4.5 targets per game. He caught three passes for 61 yards last week and one pass for 35 yards the week before. He just happened to score both weeks.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are allowing the 13th-fewest fantasy points to WRs, and just 51.8% of targets they face go to WRs. Teams have been beating them by throwing to the tight end.
Look for Josh Allen to key in on Stefon Diggs, as he usually does, and utilize Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox more than Davis this week.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos
It’s now been three weeks, and the Denver Broncos haven’t yet restored Jerry Jeudy’s every-down role. His snap shares through three games have been 68%, 76%, and 62%.
Jeudy is still the clear WR2 behind Courtland Sutton, but he was supposed to be the WR1. I don’t think anyone is still valuing Jeudy ahead of Sutton for this season. It’s abundantly clear who the better player is.
We could see Sauce Gardner shadow Sutton this week, opening things up for Jeudy, but I don’t think it will matter. The fourth-year WR just isn’t a key member of this passing attack.
The Jets have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and just one touchdown to the position all season. This is a bad spot for an underwhelming player on a bad team.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
In time, the truth always reveals itself. Recent comments by Arthur Smith heavily suggest Kyle Pitts’ limited usage is due to him not being completely healthy. Based on what Pitts looks like on the field, that checks out.
Pitts looks slow and often dogs it on routes. I don’t think it’s him being lazy, but rather just not being able to give it 100% yet. As a result, he’s been thoroughly outproduced by Jonnu Smith.
The Houston Texans present a decidedly average matchup for tight ends, but that’s more beneficial for Smith than Pitts at this juncture. Fantasy managers with Pitts have no choice but to hold until we see signs of improvement. He certainly cannot be started.