Playing in arguably the most potent backfield in the NFL, Kareem Hunt has been widely considered the best No. 2 option in not just the league, but in fantasy football circles. 2021 has been an up-and-down year for Hunt, but Week 14 could be a get-right game for one of the more talented backs in the NFL. As the Browns come off a bye week straight into a rematch with the Ravens, can fantasy managers comfortably start Hunt? Or will he disappoint as he did when these teams squared off two weeks ago?
Kareem Hunt was off to a sensational start until injuries derailed his fantasy season
Maybe it’s just me, but I can barely remember the start of the 2021 NFL season. I don’t even mean that as a joke. The NFL campaign is non-stop, and the world of fantasy football is driven by a “what have you done for me lately?” mentality. That’s why I feel many managers forget about Hunt’s excellent start to the season.
In the Browns’ first six games, Hunt carried the ball 69 times for 361 yards (5.2 avg) with 5 touchdowns while adding 20 receptions on 24 targets for 161 yards, showing his skill set as a dual-threat back.
Over this stretch, Hunt was the No. 9 fantasy RB, averaging 17.4 fantasy points per game. He did this while sharing the field with Nick Chubb for five of six games. The reason this all feels so long ago is because Hunt has barely placed since.
During Cleveland’s Week 6 game against the Arizona Cardinals, Hunt suffered a calf injury that required him to be carted off the field. Shortly thereafter, the Browns placed Hunt on injured reserve due to his calf injury. Head coach Kevin Stefanski told reporters the veteran RB would likely miss 4-6 weeks. This wound up to be accurate, as Hunt would go on to miss the Browns’ next five games.
Hunt struggled in his return against the Ravens in Week 12
In fairness, Hunt having a letdown game in his return should not have surprised anyone. If anything, we were surprised Hunt even suited up in Week 12 because the Browns were set to head into their bye the following week. That’s why I’m not surprised Hunt both struggled and saw his traditional workload cut in half.
After averaging 87 yards, 15.5 opportunities, and 49% of the offensive snaps before being sidelined, Hunt was limited to just a 38% snap share in his return. As the Browns struggled to get anything going on the ground, Hunt saw 7 carries, rushing for just 20 yards on the day.
In his defense, it wasn’t as if Chubb fared much better (8 carries for 16 yards). The Browns were smothered by the Ravens’ defense in a 16-10 losing effort where they rushed for just 40 yards as a team.
That was unacceptable for an offense whose success is predicated on their ability to run the ball. That makes Week 14 especially intriguing as we see a rare sight take place.
Week 14 should bring a better fantasy performance
Unlike MLB, the NBA, and the NHL, which all have multi-game series against the same teams, you never see teams play each other back-to-back times in the NFL. Yet, that’s what the Browns get to do this week.
After playing Baltimore in Week 12, Cleveland comes back from their bye week to face the exact same opponent. That means they’ve spent three weeks solely focused on the Ravens. One thing is for certain — they know to do the opposite of last time.
For as much as I like Baker Mayfield, the Browns are only as good as their ability to run the ball — and that shows up in fantasy. As a team, they are second in fantasy points per rush (0.71), third in points per game on the ground (23.21), and first in RB points based solely on rushing (322). And remember, that’s with Hunt and Chubb missing a combined eight games.
Both Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb could have bounce-back games
Both backs should have a bounce-back game in Week 14, with Hunt coming inside the low-end RB2 range in current rankings. With another week to rest and recover, he should receive closer to 10-12 carries and add his usual 3-4 receptions. In fact, he could be more heavily involved in the passing game this week with both Harrison Bryant and David Njoku out.
I mention tight ends because that positional group’s fantasy success often goes hand-in-hand with that of running backs. There is a high correlation between RB and TE target shares because they tend to work in the same area of the field.
Stefanski acknowledged the Browns need to find ways to get points on the board after scoring a total of 30 in their last three games. That means getting back to their identity — leaning on the run.
While the Ravens are a tough defense (No. 6 vs. RBs in fantasy), I favor the Browns’ backs in this strength vs. strength battle against a highly-injured Baltimore defense.