Kareem Hunt Fantasy Outlook: What to expect in Week 16

After an up and down second half of the season, can running back Kareem Hunt reward fantasy football managers in the playoffs in Week 16? Let’s take a look at Hunt’s season so far, the situation in Cleveland, and his Week 16 matchup.

A strong start has turned into a bumpy ride for Kareem Hunt’s fantasy managers

Through the first five weeks of the season, Kareem Hunt was delivering in a big way for fantasy football managers. The fourth-year running back had scored double-digit fantasy points in all five weeks, with a low of 12.1 in Week 1, and a high of 24.1 in Week 3.

Since then, there have been some wider fluctuations, with six single-digit performances and three double-digit performances. These fluctuations have been emphasized in the past two weeks. In Week 14, Hunt set his season-high for fantasy points with 29 against Baltimore. In Week 15, he followed that up with a season-low 5.8 against the New York Giants.

Hunt has been one of the most consistent backs this season

Despite playing second fiddle to Nick Chubb for most of the season, Hunt has been remarkably reliable. Only 12 backs have a better Consistency Score than Hunt’s 5.01. If we discount Christian McCaffrey, who has barely played, Hunt is an RB1 in terms of his week-to-week consistency.

Part of Hunt’s consistency is that he has been efficient when he gets an opportunity. With a Fantasy Points Differential of 13%, Hunt ranks as the 19th best at the position in the metric. His 2020 is only bettered by his incredible 2018 season (42%), where he was on pace for 335 fantasy points in PPR formats.

Touchdowns have been a big source of Hunt’s fantasy success

Over his career, Kareem Hunt has always been a solid fantasy producer. As a rookie, he scored 295.2 fantasy points in PPR formats at 18.4 per game. He was on pace for even more in his second season with an average of 20.9 per game. However, his 2018 season was cut short after the Kansas City Chiefs released him following an incident in a Cleveland hotel.

After serving an eight-game suspension in 2019, Hunt still managed to average 12.7 fantasy points upon his return to the field. In 2020, he is averaging an impressive 14.2 fantasy points per game, as his 199.2 fantasy points have him ranking eighth at the position.

Throughout his career, Kareem Hunt has relied on touchdowns, both on the ground and in the passing game. He scored a total of 11 touchdowns in 16 games in his rookie season. He then had 14 TDs in 11 games in 2018 and three in eight games last season.

In 2020, he has 10 touchdowns through 14 games. All told, Hunt has scored 38 touchdowns in 49 career games. Of the 676 fantasy points he has scored in standard formats in his career, 33.7% have come in the form of touchdowns. In PPR formats, 27.6% of his 826 fantasy points have come from touchdowns.

Hunt’s touchdown numbers have boosted his ceiling in 2020

The 2020 season has seen those TD% numbers are both higher than his career average. In standard formats, Kareem Hunt is providing 36% of his fantasy points this season via touchdowns and 30% in PPR. Essentially, a third of Hunt’s fantasy points are coming from finding the end zone.

Hunt is not completely touchdown-dependent, but without one, the floor is significantly lower. While not exactly ground-breaking news, it is an aspect we have to consider with Hunt when making start ’em and sit ’em choices.

Hunt has just four games this season with 100 combined rushing and receiving yards. Unlike other RBs who can consistently provide 8-12 fantasy points just in yards alone, Hunt needs the touchdowns to give him that boost.

Kareem Hunt has a stellar running back competing for touches with him

For 10 of his 14 games this season, Kareem Hunt has been competing with Nick Chubb for touches. On a per-game basis, Chubb is averaging 16.5 carries to 13.1 for Hunt. However, Hunt is averaging 3.2 targets per game, while Chubb has seen just 12 targets in his 10 games. Chubb is still shading the opportunities, but Hunt is certainly still getting a fair share.

A slight concern is a dip in recent carries.

In Week 14, Hunt carried the ball a season-low six times. However, he saw seven targets, which he turned into six receptions, 77 yards, and a touchdown. In Week 15, Hunt carried the ball just seven times. Unfortunately, he only saw three targets, with which he managed seven yards. His 10 opportunities (carries + targets) in Week 15 was his lowest of the season.

Hunt leads the Browns’ backfield in red zone carries but a concerning trend has emerged

On the season, Hunt has seen the most carries in the red zone of any Cleveland back. His 40 carries account for 49% of the team’s carries in the red zone. However, second on the list is Nick Chubb, who averages 3.2 red zone carries per game, compared to 2.9 for Hunt. The Browns average 5.6 red zone carries per game as a team, and Chubb is seeing 57% of those.

In Week 11, it all looked perfect for Kareem Hunt. He took eight of the Browns 10 red zone carries, even with Chubb in the lineup. However, since Week 12, Chubb has handled 75% of the Browns’ red zone carries. That is a concerning trend for a running back like Kareem Hunt, who depends on touchdowns for 30% of his fantasy points throughout his career.

Should you start or sit Kareem Hunt in your fantasy playoffs in Week 16?

With fantasy playoffs on the line in Week 16, which version of Kareem Hunt are we more likely to see in Week 16? The version who just dropped a season-low performance in Week 15 or a season-high performance in Week 14?

The Browns are without a number of offensive weapons

Yesterday the Browns lost four wide receivers for Week 16. Jarvis Landry, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Rashard Higgins, and KhaDarel Hodge were all placed on the reserve list. The Browns will likely need to lean on their running backs even more so than usual with limited weapons on the outside.

The New York Jets provide a surprisingly tough test in Week 16

The Jets allow the 11th-fewest fantasy points to the RB position in standard formats, 16th in PPR. Pro Football Network’s Defensive Points Allowed Consistency Score has the Jets ranked as the eighth-toughest defense in standard formats but in the middle of the pack (16th) in PPR.

In the red zone, they are tied for 13th in terms of fantasy points allowed, but they have allowed just 10 touchdowns to the running back position all season. When it comes to 100-yard games, they have allowed just one all season, and they allow just 95.2 rushing yards to the position per game.

Where Hunt could have some success is in the receiving game. The Jets rank in the middle of the pack in terms of yards allowed, but they allow the fifth-most receptions per game at 5.8. Given Hunt is seeing 2.5 times the targets of Chubb this season, look for Hunt to have a solid floor in PPR formats simply from receptions.

In PPR formats, Kareem Hunt is a solid RB2 option in the fantasy playoffs in Week 16. However, in standard formats, Hunt falls into the RB3/FLEX category.