The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Conference Championship Game. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding RB Kareem Hunt.
Is Kareem Hunt Playing vs. the Bills?
Hunt was not listed on the injury report this week. Barring any last-minute setbacks, he will play vs. Buffalo.
We’ll continue to monitor the Chiefs’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Kareem Hunt in the AFC Conference Championship Game?
As last week wore on, the Chiefs shifted their backfield usage toward Kareem Hunt over Isiah Pacheco, somewhat of a surprising result given that the presumed RB1 had plenty of time to be at full strength for the contest.
Simply put, this is annoying to deal with for fantasy.
Hunt vs. Isiah Pacheco snap rates, 2024:
- Week 13: Hunt leads 40.3% to 32.8%
- Week 14: Pacheco leads 47.7% to 30.8%
- Week 15: Tied at 37.3%
- Week 16: Hunt leads 45.7% to 32.9%
- Week 17: Hunt leads 48.3% to 34.5%
- Divisional Round: Hunt leads 48% to 30%
The Bills boast the league’s fifth-best run defense by EPA, and that makes a role like Hunt’s even more difficult to rely on. He wasn’t the initial plan last week (Pacheco had three carries and a target in their first five offensive snaps), and that was with multiple weeks to prepare.
Hunt has scored in three straight and plays for a favorite this week — the path to him generating interest at a cheap price tag is clear and obvious. Too obvious. I might be stubborn. I might be stupid. I might be both. But I remain convinced that Pacheco is the path this team wants to go to complement its passing game, and that is going to be reflected in my ownership numbers this weekend.
If the Chiefs are only on offense for 50 plays this week like they were last, this decision is likely to be moot, as neither Hunt nor Pacheco is likely to break the slate. But if one of these backs has a big day in a tough matchup – if one of them is featured at a high level — it’s Pacheco and only Pacheco in my eyes.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Conference Championship Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Kareem Hunt’s Fantasy Points Projection in the AFC Conference Championship Game
As of Sunday morning, Hunt is projected to score 7.7 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 8.1 rushing attempts for 31.4 yards and 0.4 touchdowns. It also includes 1.2 receptions for 8.4 yards and 0 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Bills' Defense
After finishing as a top-seven defense in each of the last three seasons, the Bills finished 18th during the regular season. That's not the biggest surprise given that this was largely billed as a rebuilding season for this unit.
Buffalo was a boom-or-bust defense in the Divisional Round vs. Baltimore, and there were just enough highs to escape with the win. In addition to the three takeaways, the Bills also generated their second-highest non-blitz pressure rate (42.9%) this season. The only higher rate was in the Wild Card win over the Broncos (50%).
This wasn't a particularly efficient defensive performance, as reflected in the final Defense+ grade of 69.9 (D+). Despite some run stuffs, the Bills had their worst rushing defense success rate all season (44%) and were fortunate the game script didn't allow the Ravens to lean more heavily on their run game.
Still, the Bills' offense is operating at such a high level that the bar to clear for the defense is lower than it would be on nearly any other team. Buffalo met that threshold with a few big plays against the Ravens. Those could be tougher to generate against a Chiefs offense that has gone eight straight games without a turnover, but it may be all the Bills need to finally conquer Kansas City.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Kareem Hunt’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.
Conference Championship RB PPR Rankings
1) Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs. WAS)
2) James Cook | BUF (at KC)
3) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (at PHI)
4) Isiah Pacheco | KC (vs. BUF)
5) Kareem Hunt | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Austin Ekeler | WAS (at PHI)
7) Ray Davis | BUF (at KC)
8) Ty Johnson | BUF (at KC)
9) Samaje Perine | KC (vs. BUF)
10) Kenneth Gainwell | PHI (vs. WAS)
11) Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at PHI)
12) Will Shipley | PHI (vs. WAS)
13) Carson Steele | KC (vs. BUF)
14) Reggie Gilliam | BUF (at KC)
15) Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (at PHI)
Bills at Chiefs Trends and Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills lost four road games during the regular season — only four Super Bowl champions in the 2000s have done that (2018 Patriots, 2012 Ravens, 2010 Packers, and 2006 Colts).
QB: Five times has a QB had four games in a season (playoffs included) with multiple rush touchdowns and 20 pass attempts.
- 2021 Jalen Hurts
- 2022 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Josh Allen
- 2024 Josh Allen
No player has had five such games in a season.
Offense: The Bills have scored on at least 55% of their possessions six times this season, four of which have come against playoff teams.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to pick up 70% of their third downs. That’s the fourth-highest rate the Bills have allowed in the 2000s and is their highest in a winning effort.
Fantasy: Allen has completed over 72% of his passes in both playoff wins – he had three such games during the regular season.
Betting: Overs are 5-2 in Buffalo’s past seven games, cashing last week by half a point with Baltimore's final touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Christmas Day 2023 was the date of Kansas City’s last home loss – each of their past six Arrowhead games have been decided by a single possession.
QB: Patrick Mahomes has thrown a total of three touchdown passes in his last two Championship games (3.7% of his attempts) after throwing three in each of his first four appearances (8.4%).
Offense: Saturday was the 10th time this season in which the Chiefs scored on at least half of their possessions (five-of-nine against Houston).
Defense: Opponents have picked up at least half of their third downs in four straight games against the Chiefs (Texans: 10-of-17).
Fantasy: In the last two games in which their starters have been extended, the Chiefs have managed to turn 42 carries into just 119 yards (2.83 yards per carry).
Betting: By taking an intentional safety at the end of their win over the Texans, the Chiefs snapped their six-game playoff cover streak.
