The Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) have a sneaky important game in Week 18. They’re expected to trounce the Denver Broncos (7-9) Saturday, a result that would keep faint hopes of a No. 1 seed alive. But a loss would likely make their Super Bowl path perilous. Let’s take a look at the playoff scenarios at stake for Kansas City in Week 18.
Playoff implications for Chiefs vs. Broncos
The Chiefs enter Week 18 as the No. 2 seed in the AFC even though no team in the conference has a better record. Why? The Titans, also 11-5, beat Kansas City in late October and, as a result, own the head-to-head tiebreaker.
And the news gets no better for the Chiefs when you go through the résumés of the three teams a game back of Kansas City in the AFC: the Patriots, Bills, and Bengals — all of whom are 10-6. The Chiefs have the worst conference record of the group (6-5) and have head-to-head losses to the Bills and Bengals. That means Kansas City would lose any and all tiebreakers, no matter how many teams are involved.
How the Chiefs can clinch the No. 1 seed
That’s why the Titans know they’ll clinch home-field advantage this weekend with either a win against the Houston Texans or a Chiefs loss to the Broncos.
However, there are two scenarios in which Kansas City can earn the No. 1 seed.
With a:
- Win and a Titans loss/tie or
- Tie and a Titans loss
How the Chiefs can end up as the No. 2 seed
This is by far the likeliest outcome for the Chiefs, who are 74% to beat the Broncos, per FiveThirtyEight. A win wouldn’t be enough to guarantee the No. 1 seed for KC, but it would guarantee at least the second seed and a home Divisional Round playoff game (assuming the Chiefs make it that far).
The Chiefs would end up as the No. 2 seed with a:
- Win and a Titans win or
- Tie and a Titans win/tie or
- Loss, a Bengals loss/tie (vs. the Browns), a Bills loss/tie (vs. the Jets), and a Patriots loss/tie (vs. Dolphins)
How the Chiefs can end up as the No. 3 seed
This is probably the least likely scenario because it would take a bunch of good teams losing to a bunch of bad or average teams.
The Chiefs would enter the playoffs as the No. 3 seed with a loss and a:
- Bengals loss/tie and either a Bills win or a Patriots win or
- Bengals win, a Bills loss/tie, and a Patriots loss/tie
How the Chiefs can end up as the No. 4 seed
This is the nightmare scenario because it could result in the Chiefs hosting either the Bills or Patriots in the Wild Card Round before likely road games in the Divisional Round and AFC Championship Games.
There are two ways in which the Chiefs end up as the AFC’s No. 4 seed. Both involve wins by the Broncos and Bengals and a:
- Bills win or
- Patriots win
How the Chiefs got here
The Chiefs are sweating out their seeding because the Bengals snapped Kansas City’s eight-game winning streak in Week 17. Still, the Chiefs have been the NFL’s best team since Halloween.
Week 1: Chiefs 33, Browns 29
Week 2: Ravens 36, Chiefs 35
Week 3: Chargers 30, Chiefs 24
Week 4: Chiefs 42, Eagles 30
Week 5: Bills 38, Chiefs 20
Week 6: Chiefs 31, Washington Football Team 13
Week 7: Titans 27, Chiefs 3
Week 8: Chiefs 20, Giants 17
Week 9: Chiefs 13, Packers 7
Week 10: Chiefs 41, Raiders 14
Week 11: Chiefs 19, Cowboys 9
Week 12: Bye
Week 13: Chiefs 22, Broncos 9
Week 14: Chiefs 48, Raiders 9
Week 15: Chiefs 34, Chargers 28
Week 16: Chiefs 36, Steelers 10
Week 17: Bengals 34, Chiefs 31
Week 18: Chiefs vs. Broncos